Commanders vs. Giants Prediction, Spread, NFL Picks for Thursday Night Football

Week 10’s edition of Thursday Night Football will feature the Washington Commanders (2-5-1) against the New York Giants (5-2-1) at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video. The Giants enter as 1.5-point home favorites, returning a 1.69x payout if they win outright, per PrizePicks.

The Commanders are coming off a 20-13 home loss to the Los Angeles Rams, while the Giants are riding a two-game win streak after defeating the Eagles on the road 19-11 last week.

Of course, when we last saw these two teams face off in Week 5, it ended in a head-scratching 27-27 tie because Washington inexplicably let time run out in field goal range. Could we see another crazy ending between these NFC East foes?

Below, we’ll break down our Commanders vs. Giants prediction and picks for Week 10’s Thursday Night Football game, including the spread, over/under, and top player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Commanders vs. Giants prediction and picks on PrizePicks now!

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Commanders vs. Giants Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Thursday Night Football Week 10

The Giants enter Thursday’s game as 1.5-point home favorites against the Commanders, returning a 1.69x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks – or an estimated $169 on a $100 entry.

Here are the full payouts for the Commanders vs. Giants game on PrizePicks. 

PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change. 

Make your Commanders vs. Giants prediction on the spread, over/under, and more on PrizePicks!

In Week 9, the Commanders hung in there against the Rams, but the offense ultimately put up just 13 points. While QB Jayden Daniels had a solid day at the office, completing 24 of 35 passes for 274 yards and a TD, the run game managed only 60 yards on 19 carries. 

Overall, Washington’s offense is 21st in PPG (21.5) and 20th in YPG (325.4), though it’s worth remembering Daniels missed roughly two-and-a-half games due to an elbow injury. 

The good news is Daniels and company scored 27 points in their first meeting against the Giants, and it very well could have been 30 had they left enough time to kick the potential game-winning field goal in OT.

Although the Commanders’ defense has also been below average in PPG (25.3) and YPG (342.3), it's held its own over the last three games by allowing 23, 10, and 20 points.

As for the Giants, they’re fresh off grinding out a tough defensive win against the undermanned Eagles, breaking a 13-game road losing streak to their NFC East rivals.

QB J.J. McCarthy wasn’t able to get much going, completing 12 of 19 passes for 127 yards, and he missed much of the third quarter due to a painful hip injury before eventually returning. QB Jameis Winston led the Giants’ lone TD drive in relief.

Between three different signal-callers, the Giants have been around the league average in PPG (22.8) and YPG (333.1). Despite the hip issue, McCarthy has no injury designation for Thursday’s matchup. The same can be said for RB Cam Skattebo, who’s been dealing with a hamstring injury. 

New York has gotten solid results from its defense, which is allowing the 12th-fewest PPG (21.5) and fifth-fewest YPG (301.4). However, it's ceded 27+ points three times this year, including in the aforementioned tie.

Commanders vs. Giants Prediction on Spread for Thursday Night Football – 11/12/26

Here are the key stats and trends behind our Commanders vs. Giants pick against the spread for Thursday, November 12.

• The Giants may not have as much of an advantage as their superior record would suggest. In fact, the Commanders are 21st in total DVOA compared to 24th for the Giants, per FTN. This includes New York ranking only 17th in defensive DVOA despite mostly positive results on that side.
• The Washington offense generated 202 rushing yards and 3 TDs on 30 carries when it faced the Giants. This season, New York is tied for giving up the fifth-most rushing YPA (4.7). 
• Rain and 10+ mph winds are in the forecast, which could lead to a lower-scoring game with both teams leaning more on the run. 
• While both defenses have below-average sack rates, the Giants have a particularly poor pressure rate (30.4%) that's second to last, per Sharp Football Analysis.
• Despite that lack of sacks, both teams blitz at a high clip. According to Zain Dhanani, Daniels averages 0.36 EPA/dropback vs. the blitz compared to -0.15 for McCarthy. New York blitzes at the fifth-highest rate (37.5%), while Washington does so at the third-highest clip (40.4%).   
• In Week 9, Winston played only one full drive while McCarthy was sidelined. Via Fantasy Points’ Ryan Heath, that possession accounted for 36% of the game’s passing yards, 44% of the passing first downs, and 100% of the passing TDs.  

Make your Commanders vs. Giants picks now for Thursday’s NFL game.

Commanders vs. Giants Picks, Player Stats for TNF on PrizePicks: 11/12/26

Here are the top Commanders vs. Giants picks to target on Thursday, November 12. Today’s NFL picks for PrizePicks include Jayden Daniels and Cam Skattebo.

Commanders QB Jayden Daniels vs. Giants: 37.5 Rush Yards

• Daniels hasn’t run as much in the past three games, but when he faced the Giants, he rushed 9 times for a season-high 103 yards and 2 TDs. 
• The dual-threat is averaging 42.0 rushing YPG and 8.1 YPA.
• The Giants have allowed the second-most rushing yards to opposing QBs. Last week against the Eagles, they let QB Joe Milton go for 64 yards on 9 carries.
• New York’s aforementioned high blitz rate (37.5%) could lead to Daniels bailing from the pocket and scrambling more often.

Add Jayden Daniels + Commanders to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Giants RB Cam Skattebo vs. Commanders: 55.5 Rush Yards

• New York didn't acquire an RB at the NFL trade deadline, so Skattebo figures to remain the lead back now that he's healthy.
• Excluding Week 6 when he was effectively benched, he's rushed for 81, 36, 60, 58, 59, and 124 yards in his other six games. He saw 17+ carries in four of those six outings.
• Per RBSDM, the Commanders' defense sits 22nd in rush EPA/play allowed (-0.074) and 31st in rush success rate (45.4%).
• Skattebo went for 59 yards when the Giants faced Washington, and that was when he was still splitting work with Najee Harris (released) and Tyron Tracy Jr. (injured reserve). RB Devin Singletary is now his lone competition; he managed just 31 rushing yards on 21 attempts last week.

Add Cam Skattebo + Giants to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Make Commanders vs. Giants Picks on PrizePicks

The Washington Commanders and New York Giants had a memorable Week 5 tie, but perhaps not for the best reasons. How will the rematch play out on Thursday Night Football?

Don't wait until kickoff — make your Commanders vs. Giants picks on PrizePicks now for Week 10.

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