We are on to Week 5 in the college football season after last week saw #4 Ole Miss, #12 USC, #13 Penn State, and #16 Louisville all lose. This week, seven of the top 10 teams in the country are on the road in possible upset spots.
Last week, we nailed Iowa’s upset at Michigan, making it three straight weeks (and four upsets total) where we've hit outright underdogs in this column. And our only loss on Missouri had Mississippi State on the ropes in the fourth quarter.
College football’s Week 5 slate has three ranked vs. ranked matchups, two in the SEC and one in the Big Ten. We also have a couple of key conference games as teams try to stay in the College Football Playoff race, as well as the first game in the race for the Commander-in-Chief Trophy, which is where our interest lies this week.
Below, we’ll break down our upset picks for Saturday’s college football games, including #24 Kentucky vs. South Carolina and Navy vs. Air Force, with spreads and payouts on PrizePicks Team Picks.
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College Football Predictions, Upset Picks for Week 5 – Saturday, October 3
This loaded Week 5 college football slate has plenty of underdogs, but two games stand out as potential college football upset spots on Saturday, October 3.
Newly ranked Kentucky is on the road as an underdog at South Carolina at 4:15 p.m. on SEC Network, and Navy travels out west to play Air Force at 12:00 p.m. on CBS. Both games have spreads around a field goal, making them viable upset picks for Week 5.
The payouts listed below indicate real-money earnings if a prediction is correct; for example, a 2x on a $100 entry pays out $200. The lower the payout multiplier, the higher the chance of the outcome occurring, according to user picks.
Navy vs. Air Force: CFB Upset Watch Today
Start Time: 12:00 p.m. ET | TV: CBS
Anytime the service academies get together, you always look at the respective running games and run defenses to figure out how it might play out. Although Air Force has leaned more on passing in recent years, and even Navy has showcased the passing game from time to time, it does come down to rush offense and rush defense, and that’s where our edge comes in.
Remarkably, the two teams are tied for second in the nation at 333.7 rushing yards per game, each rushing for 1,001 yards over three games. But the teams are worlds apart on stopping the run.
The Navy Midshipmen rank 10th nationally in EPA/rush and 13th in rushing success rate, while Air Force ranks 134th in EPA/rush allowed and 131st in rushing success rate allowed. Opponents are averaging 5.57 yards per carry on first down against the Falcons and 4.2 per carry on the season.
On the flip side, Navy ranks 28th nationally in rushing success rate allowed and eighth in the country in rushing defense, holding teams to 65.7 yards per game on the ground and seventh in yards per carry at 2.01. Even in its 38-30 loss to FAU two weeks ago, Navy held the Owls to 42 rushing yards on 44 attempts. It was the pass defense that did them in.
The Midshipmen have won four consecutive games against their fellow service academies, including the last two against Air Force. They won 34-7 in their last trip to Colorado Springs in 2024 and won 34-31 last year at home.
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Kentucky vs. South Carolina: CFB Upset Watch Today
Start Time: 4:15 p.m. ET | TV: SEC Network
South Carolina’s statistical profile is a picture-perfect example of misleading statistics. The out-of-conference wins over Kent State and FCS Towson by a combined 102-9 overshadow a 0-2 SEC start that includes blowing a 16-0 home lead vs. Mississippi State and getting blown out by Alabama.
The Gamecocks are 48th in the country in total defense, but also allowed an average of 441 yards and 40 points in the two SEC losses. After an early 16-0 lead over Mississippi State two weeks ago, South Carolina has been outscored 80-36 in 6.5 quarters since. They rank 15th of 16 SEC teams in defensive EPA/play allowed in conference play, per Gameonpaper, and 112th nationally in their four games overall.
The Gamecocks have allowed more than seven yards per play through two conference games, and host a Kentucky team that ranks 27th nationally in opponent-adjusted net EPA/play and has a rushing attack that can take advantage of South Carolina’s defense.
Led by RBs C.J. Baxter and Jason Patterson, Kentucky has a 52.0% rushing success rate and ranks 30th in the nation at 203.5 rush yards per game. The Wildcats are also seventh in early-down EPA/play (+0.31), while South Carolina ranks 88th in EPA/rush allowed and 94th in early-down EPA/play allowed.
Outside of a disastrous second half against Alabama — a game Kentucky led 17-13 at halftime before allowing 32 unanswered points — the Wildcats have been one of the season's more surprising teams. They bounced back after the Bama loss and upset #9 Texas A&M in College Station in one of the season's bigger upsets.
A win in Columbia on Saturday as an underdog would put them in position for a late-season, long-shot run for a playoff spot.
Make your Kentucky vs. South Carolina prediction on PrizePicks now
Make Week 5 College Football Predictions Today on PrizePicks
A full slate of ranked college football games is on tap for Week 5, and that means more chances for upsets to get higher payouts on PrizePicks with the dog.
Can Kentucky continue its impressive turnaround under Will Stein and win another SEC road game? Which service academy will outrun the other in Colorado Springs?
You can make your college football predictions every week of the 2026 season on PrizePicks — including teams to pull off upsets.
Pick More or Less on player stats, or pick game winners, spreads, and totals to earn real money if you're right! In eligible states, combine Team + Player picks for bigger payouts.
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