Cardinals vs. Reds Prediction, MLB Picks for Monday, August 17

Game 1 of a doubleheader between the St. Louis Cardinals (63-61) and the Cincinnati Reds (59-64) is set for 1:40 p.m. ET on Monday, August 17, with the Cardinals returning a 1.78x payout to win, via PrizePicks.

The Cardinals and Reds will kick off Monday with the only game in the early window, followed by another matchup at 6:40 p.m. ET in a doubleheader. The Cardinals are coming off a successful weekend by taking two of three games against the Cubs. Now they face the Reds, who have lost six of their last nine and are falling out of playoff contention.

Below, we'll break down our Cardinals vs. Reds prediction and picks for Monday’s MLB matchup, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Cardinals vs. Reds picks on PrizePicks now!

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Cardinals vs. Reds Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Monday, August 17

The Cardinals will feature SP Andre Pallante (4.42 xFIP in 14 IP, 10 starts) in this Monday afternoon matchup.

Pallante’s 2025 season was mediocre, with career-worst in losses (15), WAR (-1.6), and xERA (4.30). The 2026 campaign has been a complete turnaround, including career-bests in WAR (2.4), wins (12), and walk rate (7.4%).

He has significantly reduced how often he throws his four-seamer, down from 44.1% last year to 32.0% this season. Plus, Pallante is mixing in more of his slider with a 29.6% usage rate.

The Cardinals have won 9 of their last 13 games, and the offense has been stellar, ranking fourth in xSLG (.428) and eighth in hard-hit rate (39.2%) since August 2. 

There is a new offensive star for the Cardinals, with RF Joshua Baez having one of the most memorable debuts in league history. He became the first player to hit 3 home runs in his first 3 at-bats of his MLB debut.

It might be difficult for the Cardinals to make up ground in the National League Central, where they are 13.5 games behind the Brewers in first place in the division. But St. Louis is still in the hunt for a Wild Card spot, sitting only 3.5 games behind the final spot.

As of this writing, the Reds have yet to announce a starting pitcher for today's makeup game.

The Reds had a fantastic start to the season, and it looked like this could be the year they would be in playoff contention. On April 30, they were 20-11, the second-best record in the league. Since then, they have gone 39-52 and are 7.0 games back from a Wild Card spot.

Injuries could be a major reason the Reds have fallen out of contention. Almost every major piece has missed time this season, including SS Elly De La Cruz, 1B Spencer Steer, and SP Nick Lodolo. Steer is the only notable player still injured, so maybe Cincy can climb back into the playoff race in the coming weeks.

Cardinals vs. Reds Winner Payout, Over/Under – Monday, August 17

The Cardinals enter Monday’s game as road favorites, returning a 1.78x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Cardinals vs. Reds game on PrizePicks.

Make your Cardinals vs. Reds prediction on the spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money—available in 36 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Cardinals vs. Reds Prediction on Spread – 8/17/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Cardinals vs. Reds prediction on the run line for Monday, August 17.

Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.

• Pallante has been excellent against the Reds, allowing 1 earned run over 13.0 innings in two starts. One of those starts was Game 1 of a doubleheader.
• The Cardinals’ starter is allowing a 34.7% hard-hit rate, which ranks in the 77th percentile. The Reds are mediocre in that category, as their 38.1% hard-hit rate ranks 19th in the league.
• Pallante is among the best at inducing ground balls, with a 56.1% groundball rate that ranks in the 96th percentile. The Reds carry a concerning .234 BABIP on ground balls (23rd).
• Ground balls have made up 54% of balls in play for Cincinnati when facing Pallante this season.
• The Cardinals' .251 xBA ranks third in the league. That could be a problem for the Reds’ pitching staff, as opponents average a .250 xBA, ranking 23rd in baseball.

Lock in your Cardinals vs. Reds prediction on PrizePicks before the first pitch.

Cardinals vs. Reds Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks – 8/17/26

Here are the top Cardinals vs. Reds picks to target on PrizePicks for Monday, August 17. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Alex Burleson and Eugenio Suarez.

Cardinals 1B Alec Burleson: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

• Burleson is having a breakout season, putting up career-bests in xBA (.299), xSLG (.542), and wOBA (.361).
• The Cardinals’ first baseman has been one of the league’s hottest hitters recently. Since August 2, he ranks second in HR/FB (38.5%), third in hard-hit rate (63.3%), and seventh in wOBA (.464).
• He’s been crushing the Reds all season, with his 1.022 OPS ranking sixth among the 26 opposing teams he’s faced, while his .423 BABIP in the split is eighth.
• Burleson’s .542 xSLG places him in the 98th percentile, while the Reds’ pitching staff ranks 25th in xSLG allowed (.416).

Add Alec Burleson to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Reds DH Eugenio Suarez vs. Cardinals: 6.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• Suarez has stumbled this season, posting career-worst numbers in xBA (.189), strikeout rate (36.1%), and wOBA (.303). 
• The Reds’ designated hitter is a career 1 for 8 and struck out three times against Pallante.
• Pallante is excellent, as he’s allowing a 34.7% hard-hit rate, which ranks in the 77th percentile. This is where Suarez struggles, as his 35.7% hard-hit rate only ranks in the 27th percentile.
• Pallante throws sliders on 40.0% of his pitches to right-handed hitters. The right-handed-hitting Suarez struggles against the slider with a .110 xBA, .219 xSLG, and .262 wOBA.

Add Eugenio Suarez to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Make Cardinals vs. Reds Picks on PrizePicks

The Reds and Cardinals will play a rare five-game series this week, including a doubleheader today. St. Louis has been playing excellent baseball, winning four consecutive series. Now they face the Reds, who have lost two of their last three series.

Don’t wait until the first pitch happens—make your Cardinals vs. Reds picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 36 states.

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