The St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs game is set for a first pitch at 4:05 p.m. ET on Friday, July 3 at Wrigley Field, with the Cubs entering as home favorites and returning a 1.72x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks with a win.
The Cubs (49-38) look to capitalize off a 23-run barrage in Wednesday’s rout of the Padres. Chicago improved to 15-4 in the past 19 contests to move within five games of Milwaukee for first place in the NL Central.
The Cardinals (45-39) sit in third place in the division after a series victory at Atlanta. St. Louis squandered an early 3-0 lead on Thursday but rallied for 7 runs in the seventh inning in an 11-5 triumph.
Below, we'll break down our Cardinals vs. Cubs prediction and picks for Friday's MLB game, including the winner, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
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Cardinals vs. Cubs Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Friday, July 3
Chicago’s roller coaster season continues, as the Cubs have gone through stretches of 20-4, 2-14, and 19-4 all before July 4.
The Cubs smacked 8 home runs in Wednesday’s 23-3 blowout of the scuffling Padres, capped off by 3 dingers from SS Dansby Swanson. The night before, the former Brave hit 2 homers, marking his third multi-homer game since June 24.
The Cardinals have shown signs of inconsistency since a six-game winning streak in early June. St. Louis is 8-11 in the past 19 games, including road series losses at Kansas City and Minnesota. However, the Redbirds are 3-1-2 in their past six away series against National League opponents.
In their first set at Busch Stadium in late May, the Cardinals captured two of three matchups vs. the Cubs. Today’s starting pitcher, Andre Pallante, took the mound in the opener as both teams exchanged 3 runs in the first inning. Pallante lasted three frames, but St. Louis held off Chicago 6-5 as the Cardinals bullpen allowed 1 run in the final six innings.
According to Ballparkpal.com, winds will be blowing out at around 9 MPH at Wrigley, down from 14 MPH on Wednesday. They project a 22% boost for home run environment and a 9% boost on runs with David Peterson starting for the Cubs.
The former Met tossed 5.2 innings and allowed 2 earned runs in his Chicago debut last Saturday, an 8-2 win at Milwaukee.
Cardinals vs. Cubs Winner Payout, Over/Under – Friday, July 3
The Cubs enter Friday’s game as home favorites against the Cardinals, returning a 1.72x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Cardinals vs. Cubs game on PrizePicks.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs -1.5 (2.27x payout)
- Over/Under: 10.5 (1.85x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Cardinals 2x | Cubs 1.72x
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Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Cardinals vs. Cubs Prediction on Winner – 7/3/26
Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Cardinals vs. Cubs prediction on the winner for Friday, July 3.
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- Peterson was knocked around by the Cardinals in less than 4 innings of work on June 10. The southpaw yielded 6 runs in a 9-2 defeat in his third-to-last start with the Mets.
- Over the last seven days, per FanGraphs, the Cubs have produced a wRC+ of 153 compared to 63 by the Cardinals.
- St. Louis ranks eighth in hard-hit rate, while Peterson sits in the 33rd percentile in this category, both at 40.7%.
- The Cardinals sit second in xwOBA at .327, which is the best among everyone not named the Dodgers (.350).
- The Cubs own the seventh-lowest xBA (.241) via Baseball Savant, while the Redbirds are second at .252.
- Chicago 1B Michael Busch is a perfect 6-for-6 against Pallante in his career with 2 home runs and 5 RBI.
- St. Louis is 5-0 in Pallante’s last five away starts, also going 7-4 in its previous 11 road series openers.
Cardinals vs. Cubs Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 7/3/26
Here are top Cardinals vs. Cubs picks to target on Friday, July 3. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include P Andre Pallante and SS Dansby Swanson.
Cardinals P Andre Pallante vs. Cubs: 4 Strikeouts
- Pallante may need to depend on his slider to be effective, as he limits batters to a .191 xBA and .251 xwOBA against the offering while recording 34 strikeouts.
- The right-hander has posted at least 4 strikeouts in four of his last five outings.
- In his first start against the Cubs, Pallante was limited to 3 strikeouts. Chicago owns a chase rate of 27.9%, which ranks in the 85th percentile.
- Pallante has silenced both OF Pete Crow-Armstrong and DH Michael Conforto, who are a combined 0-for-13 with 6 strikeouts.
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Cubs SS Dansby Swanson vs. Cardinals: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
- Swanson’s HRR numbers against the Padres were out of control, posting 3, 8, and 15 in the three-game sweep.
- In the last six home games, Swanson has exceeded this projection. With that said, prior to this streak, he posted more than 2 HRR once in the previous 10 contests at Wrigley.
- Swanson is just 2-for-14 lifetime against Pallante with a pair of strikeouts. In the first series vs. St. Louis, he finished 1-for-9 overall.
- This recent hot streak is impressive considering Swanson owns a career-low xBA of .212. His batting average jumped 20 points after going 8-for-13 against San Diego.
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These NL Central rivals are right behind the Brewers in the NL Central and are looking to make a run before the All-Star break. Will the Cubs stay hot at home, or will the Cardinals beat Chicago for the third time in four tries?
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