Broncos vs. Chiefs Prediction, Pick Against the Spread for Monday Night Football

On Monday Night Football, the Denver Broncos hit the road to face the Kansas City Chiefs at 8:15 p.m. ET on ABC and ESPN. The Chiefs check in as 2.5-point home favorites on the spread, per PrizePicks.

Last season, the Broncos went 14-3 and were one win away from reaching the Super Bowl, but an untimely broken ankle for QB Bo Nix in the Divisional Round proved costly, as they went on to lose to the New England Patriots 10-7 in the AFC Championship Game.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs are coming off their most disappointing campaign in recent memory, finishing 6-11 and missing the postseason for the first time since 2014. QB Patrick Mahomes suffered a torn ACL in Week 15 but has no injury status and is expected to play on Monday.

Despite their contrasting seasons, both teams figure to be in the playoff mix this year. Which AFC West team comes out on top tonight?

Below, we’ll break down our Broncos vs. Chiefs prediction and pick for the spread for Monday Night Football in NFL Week 1.

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Broncos vs. Chiefs Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Monday Night Football – 9/14/26

Nix also has no injury designation on this week’s injury report, so he should be fully recovered from last season’s ankle injury.

He returns to an offense that was middle of the pack, as the Broncos ranked 15th in EPA/play (0.035) and 19th in success rate (43.6%) last season, per RBSDM. However, there are reasons to believe they could be an improved unit in 2026.

One of Denver’s biggest moves this offseason was trading for WR Jaylen Waddle, giving them a potential one-two punch for their aerial attack with Waddle and WR Courtland Sutton.

They could also once again have one of the league’s better offensive lines after finishing last season ranked eighth in pass block win rate and fourth in run block win rate, per ESPN.  

An interesting wrinkle in 2026 will be new offensive playcaller Davis Webb, who will take over those duties in place of head coach Sean Payton. Monday night will mark the offensive coordinator’s first time calling a regular-season game.

The Broncos’ defense ought to be a strength again. In 2025, Denver ranked eighth in defensive EPA/play (-0.058) and first in success rate (37.8%).

For Kansas City, in addition to hopefully having a full season with both Mahomes and WR Rashee Rice, the team signed RB Kenneth Walker III to bolster their backfield. That should help them bump up an offense that was 11th in EPA/play (0.042) and 14th in success rate (44.5%).

However, the Chiefs will be without starting LT Josh Simmons in Week 1.

Defensively, KC ranked 12th in EPA/play (-0.008) and 14th in success rate (44.0%). The team experienced some turnover on this side of the ball, but this should still be a respectable group. Starting S Chamarri Conner has been ruled out for Monday’s game, though. 

The Chiefs enter Monday’s game as 2.5-point favorites against the Broncos, returning a 1.69x payout on PrizePicks if they win outright.

Here are the full payouts for the Broncos vs. Chiefs game on Monday Night Football, via PrizePicks.

Make your Broncos vs. Chiefs prediction on the spread on PrizePicks.

PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Broncos vs. Chiefs Prediction on Spread for Monday Night Football – 9/14/26

Here are the key stats and trends behind our Broncos vs. Chiefs prediction on the spread for Monday Night Football on September 14.

• With Simmons unable to play, that means undrafted rookie T Khalil Benson will be starting at left tackle. That’s particularly concerning with Mahomes playing in his first game since his ACL injury.
• The Broncos led the NFL with 68 sacks last year. They also produced the second-highest pressure rate (30.5%), per Pro Football Reference.
• In 2025, Denver ranked second in pass rush win rate (45%). EDGE Nick Bonitto led the team with 14.0 sacks and boasted the league's second-best edge pass rush win rate (24%).
• In addition to their elite pass rush, Denver still possesses star CB Pat Surtain II in the secondary. The Broncos just allowed the league's lowest passing success rate (38.5%). Entering the season, PFF ranks their defensive line sixth and their secondary third. 
• Denver surrendered the third-fewest points per game (18.3) and second-fewest yards per game (278.2). This included giving up the second-fewest rushing YPG (91.1).
• The Broncos return all five starting offensive linemen in 2026. PFF is also high on this group, placing them first in their O-line rankings. ESPN’s Mike Clay agrees, ranking the unit first as well.
• Kansas City is working with a revamped secondary after trading CB Trent McDuffie and losing CB Jaylen Watson and S Bryan Cook in free agency. While they have some promising pieces, this could be a work in progress early in the campaign.

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The Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs will play in this year’s first edition of Monday Night Football. Which team opens the 2026-27 season with a win?

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