Braves vs. Pirates Prediction, MLB Picks for Thursday, July 9

The first pitch of the matchup between the Atlanta Braves (53-38) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (47-46) is set for 12:35 p.m. ET on Thursday, July 9, with the Braves favored and returning a 1.78x payout if they win.

These two clubs are playing an exciting series. After Pittsburgh RF/1B Ryan O’Hearn had a legendary night with 3 home runs and 10 RBI in a 12-4 win on Tuesday, Atlanta responded by silencing the bats with a 3-0 win on Wednesday.

On Thursday, we get a matinee rubber match between two teams in the National League playoff picture.

Below, we'll break down our Braves vs. Pirates prediction and picks for Thursday’s MLB matchup, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Braves vs. Pirates prediction on PrizePicks for today’s game.

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Braves vs. Pirates Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Thursday, July 9

Braves SP Bryce Elder (4.07 xFIP in 98.2 IP, 17 starts) will get the nod here. Elder had an excellent beginning to the season, posting a 3.09 xERA and 4.00 xFIP in his first 14 starts. Since then, however, he's had a 6.95 xERA and 4.54 xFIP while allowing 5+ earned runs in three straight starts for the first time ever.

Elder is a pitcher who usually does well at keeping the ball out of a hitter’s power zone, but he’s allowing a 22.1% blast contact rate over his last three starts, as opposed to 15.6% in his first 14 starts. 

With how the Braves started the year, it looked like they were going to run away with the NL East. From April 28 through June 20, they never had a lead below seven games in the division. On June 10, Atlanta’s 45-23 record was the best in baseball. They're 8-15 since then.

Unfortunately for Atlanta, Philadelphia is playing well and Miami has won 25 of its 33 games. As a result, the Braves' lead is now down to just two games. 

The Pirates will send SP Mitch Keller (4.54 xFIP in 100.1 IP, 18 starts) to the mound. Keller’s tenure in Pittsburgh has been less than stellar, as he has a career 4.52 xERA. Unfortunately, he hasn’t gotten better over time, as his 5.38 xERA for 2026 is the third worst of his career.

The problem with the Pirates is that they play inconsistently. Over the last few weeks, they've had a pattern of winning back-to-back games followed by losing in the same fashion. Since June 16, there have been three instances in which they went 2-2 over a four-game span. It’s difficult to gain ground that way.

Given the parity in the NL, Pittsburgh is still in contention for the Wild Card, sitting just three games out of the third playoff spot. Pittsburgh could be a team to watch near the trade deadline to see if they improve their roster.

Braves vs. Pirates Winner Payout, Over/Under – Thursday, July 9

The Braves enter Thursday’s game as road favorites against the Pirates, returning a 1.78x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Braves vs. Pirates game on PrizePicks.

• Spread: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (2.22x payout)
• Over/Under: 9.5 (1.88x payout on Over)
• Game Winner Payout: Braves 1.78x | Pirates 1.96x

Play the Braves vs. Pirates spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Braves vs. Pirates Prediction on Over/Under – 7/9/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Braves vs. Pirates prediction on the run total for Thursday, July 9.

Lock in your Braves vs. Pirates prediction on PrizePicks now.

Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.

• In five of Keller’s last seven starts, the game has totaled 10 or more runs.
• Elder went 6 innings, allowing 2 earned runs in his last start against the Pirates on June 7; however, that was at home. He’s been noticeably worse on the road, sporting a 5.15 ERA compared to 3.34 at home and an 8.6% HR/FB ratio at Truist Park and 15.8% away from it.
• Pittsburgh has a lot of pop in its bats, as its 13.7% HR/FB ratio ranks fifth. Atlanta isn’t too far behind at 12.1% (11th).
• The game could see runs late. The Braves' bullpen has recently struggled, and its 7.20 ERA in July is 28th, while the Pirates rank 22nd with a 4.39 ERA for the season.
• The Braves do well at putting the ball on the best part of the bat, boasting an 8.8% barrel rate that ranks eighth. That's something Keller struggles with, as he’s ceding a 7.3% barrel rate that's only in the 55th percentile.

Braves vs. Pirates Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 7/9/26

Here are the top Braves vs. Pirates picks to target on Thursday, July 9. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Mauricio Dubón and Nick Gonzales.

Braves LF Mauricio Dubón vs. Pittsburgh: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI

• Dubón is having a breakout season, with his 4.8% barrel rate, .276 xBA, and .334 wOBA all career highs.
• The veteran has success against Keller, going 6-for-13 lifetime with 2 doubles and a home run.
• The infielder-outfielder has been critical to the Braves, as his 1.4 WAR since June 4 is the fourth-best in baseball.
• Dubón is one of the toughest hitters to get to swing and miss, evidenced by his 16.5% whiff rate that's in the 88th percentile. Keller's 20.2% induced whiff rate is in the 12th percentile.

Add Mauricio Dubón to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Pirates 3B Nick Gonzales vs. Braves: 5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• Gonzales is among the hottest hitters in July, with his .542 BABIP ranking fourth and his .568 wOBA being fifth.
• The Pirates third baseman’s .288 xBA slots into the 91st percentile. That holds an advantage over Elder, who’s allowing a .244 xBA (46th).
• Elder throws a sinker on 54% of his pitches to right-handed hitters. Gonzales excels against sinkers; his .371 BA and 18.4% whiff rate are better than against any other pitch type.
• Gonzales hits better against right-handers (.361 wOBA vs. .295 to LHP). Elder's wOBA allowed to lefties (.272) is much lower than against righties (.342).

Add Nick Gonzales to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Make Braves vs. Pirates Picks on PrizePicks

The Braves and Pirates lead off the Thursday slate with an early afternoon start in a rubber match. Atlanta hopes Bryce Elder can bounce back from his recent struggles, while the Pirates will count on Mitch Keller to secure their second straight series win.

Don’t wait until the first pitch happens — make your Braves vs. Pirates picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.

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