Braves vs. Phillies Prediction, MLB Picks for Sunday, September 6

The first pitch of the Atlanta Braves (84-58) vs. the Philadelphia Phillies (80-62) is set for 1:10 p.m. ET on Sunday, September 6, with the Braves returning a 1.85x payout to win, via PrizePicks.

This could be a season-defining series given the potential playoff implications. The Braves and Phillies are in a tight race in the National League East, with Atlanta leading by 4.0 games.

On Saturday, the Phillies got to Braves SP Martin Perez early, scoring 2 runs in the first inning and 1 in the second. The Braves responded with a solo home run from Braves RF Ronald Acuna Jr. in the third, but Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber drove in the next 2 runs, 1 on an RBI groundout and another on a solo home run, boosting the Phillies to a 4-2 win. 

Below, we'll break down our Braves vs. Phillies prediction and picks for Sunday’s MLB matchup on NBC, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Braves vs. Phillies prediction on PrizePicks now!

{{mlb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Braves vs. Phillies Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Sunday, September 6

One thing the Braves organization excels at is developing pitchers, whether they come through the farm system or Atlanta acquires them. Today's starter, SP Tyler Mahle (4.26 xFIP in 121.0 IP, 26 appearances, 22 starts), is a perfect example with his transformation since coming over from the Giants at the trade deadline.

In 18 starts with San Francisco, he had -0.2 WAR and a 5.13 ERA. He’s vastly improved with 1.2 WAR and a 1.48 ERA since coming to Atlanta. 

Mahle looks to recapture the Braves' success from Friday's win in the series opener. Atlanta couldn’t carry that momentum into Saturday, which sums up this season.

The franchise got off to an excellent start in 2026, and by June 7, its 45-21 record was the best in MLB. The Braves held a 9.5-game lead over the Phillies in the National League East, and it looked like they were cruising to the division title.

However, they went on a tough stretch, shrinking that lead to 2.0 games at one point. Atlanta got hot again, and the divisional lead jumped back to 9.5 games on August 12, but here we are again with the lead down to 4.0 games.

On Sunday, the Phillies will counter with SP Aaron Nola (3.13 xFIP in 130.1 IP, 23 starts). 

Nola has been a staple of the Phillies rotation for 12 years and one of their best pitchers during that time. However, he’s struggled over the last couple of seasons.

Since 2025, he has 1.6 WAR and a 5.35 ERA. There are some positives, including his ERA improving from 6.01 to 4.93. His knuckle curve has become his primary pitch, up from a 29.1% usage rate in 2025 to 33.1% this season. As his best pitch, the knuckle curve has yielded a .178 xBA and a 42.8% whiff rate.

The Phillies have not been able to reap the benefits of the Braves' inconsistencies because Philly has battled the same problem. In July, they went a horrendous 9-15, but in August they bounced back with a 21-7 record.

Philadelphia is currently in the second Wild Card spot, but it is only a half-game behind the Cubs for the top spot — which would allow the club to host a Wild Card Series. However, the Phillies still have a chance to win the NL East, beginning with Sunday's matchup.

Braves vs. Phillies Winner Payout, Over/Under – Sunday, September 6

The Braves enter Sunday’s game as road favorites, returning a 1.85x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks.

Here are the full payouts for the Braves vs. Phillies game on PrizePicks.

Make your Braves vs. Phillies prediction on the over/under on PrizePicks!

PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Braves vs. Phillies Prediction on Over/Under – 9/6/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Braves vs. Phillies prediction on the run total for Sunday, September 6.

Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.

• In his previous start against the Braves this season, Nola allowed 6 earned runs over 4.2 innings.
• Mahle has ceded 5 earned runs over 10.2 innings against the Phillies in 2026.
• Nola has struggled by yielding a 9.3% barrel rate, which ranks in the 19th percentile. The Braves' 8.5% barrel rate sits fifth in the league.
• Mahle is allowing a .252 xBA, which ranks in the 33rd percentile. This could be a challenge against the Phillies, who are second with a .251 xBA.
• Nola's .241 xBA allowed (47th percentile) is also dangerous — especially considering the Braves are seventh (.246 xBA) in the metric.

Lock in your Braves vs. Phillies prediction on PrizePicks before the first pitch.

Braves vs. Phillies Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks – 9/6/26

Here are the top Braves vs. Phillies picks to target on PrizePicks for Sunday, September 6. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Ronald Acuna Jr. and Kyle Schwarber.

Braves RF Ronald Acuna Jr. vs. Phillies: 5.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• Acuna Jr. has been red-hot recently, ranking third in wOBA (.549) and third in BABIP (.565) since August 28.
• The former MVP has a strong history against Nola, with a .554 xSLG, .394 xwOBA, and 4 home runs.
• Acuna Jr. is among baseball's best at getting free passes, with a 12.1% walk rate that ranks in the 85th percentile. Nola has an 8.0% walk rate, sitting in the 56th percentile, and has allowed 8 walks to Acuna Jr. 
• Nola struggles with allowing a 9.3% barrel rate, placing him in the 19th percentile. This is where Acuna Jr. excels, with a 12.2% barrel rate in the 80th percentile.

Add Ronald Acuna Jr. to your PrizePicks lineup now.

{{mlb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber vs. Braves:  5.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• Schwarber is one of the top power hitters in the league, having led the league with 56 home runs in 2025 and again this year with 41.
• The Phillies’ designated hitter has a great history against Mahle, going 6 for 20 with 2 home runs.
• Mahle is allowing a 7.1% barrel rate, which is in the 57th percentile. Now he has to face one of the best in MLB, as Schwarber’s 16.7% barrel rate resides in the 98th percentile.
• Mahle throws his four-seamer 50.0% of the time to left-handed hitters. The left-handed-hitting Schwarber crushes the four-seamer with a .381 wOBA and 60.0% hard-hit rate.

Add Kyle Schwarber to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Make Braves vs. Phillies Picks on PrizePicks

This series has plenty at stake, carrying clear playoff implications. The Braves and Phillies are separated by only 4.0 games in the NL East, while Philadelphia also looks to improve its Wild Card spot.

Don’t wait until the first pitch happens — make your Braves vs. Phillies picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With PrizePicks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders.

Stay locked in on Playbook for daily MLB predictions, picks, and news every day all the way through the 2026 MLB season.