The first pitch of the matchup between the Atlanta Braves (84-57) and Philadelphia Phillies (79-62) is set for 6:05 p.m. ET on Saturday, September 5, with the Phillies favored and returning a 1.58x payout with a win, via PrizePicks.
This is the most intriguing series of the weekend with potentially significant playoff implications. The Braves and Phillies are in a tight race right now, with Atlanta up by five games in the National League East.
On Friday night, the Braves scored 3 runs in the second inning, and that was all they needed. SP Chris Sale had another excellent start, allowing 2 earned runs and striking out 7 over 6 innings as Atlanta won 5-2.
Below, we'll break down our Braves vs. Phillies prediction and picks for Saturday’s MLB matchup, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
Make your Braves vs. Phillies prediction on PrizePicks for tonight’s game.
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Braves vs. Phillies Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Saturday, September 5
The Braves will start Martin Perez (4.26 xFIP in 121.0 IP, 26 appearances, 22 starts) in Saturday's matchup.
Perez has become an unlikely gem for the Braves' rotation. The journeyman has played for five teams from 2023 to 2025 and didn’t have much success, posting a 4.33 ERA and 2.7 WAR with the Rangers, Pirates, Padres, and White Sox.
Perez’s first season with the Braves is one of his top ones, with his 3.05 ERA and 2.4 WAR being the second-best marks of his career. He is coming off a stellar August, posting a 1.76 ERA.
The Braves haven't made this season easy, and their inconsistency could cost them a prominent playoff spot. On June 7, they had the best record in MLB (45-21) and a 9.5-game lead in the NL East. Exactly a month later, that lead had shrunk to two games as they went 7-17. They regained a 9.5-game lead on August 12 after going 21-10, but it has since slimmed down again.
Given how volatile the Braves have been, this series could be important for building a cushion in the division.
The Phillies will counter with Zack Wheeler (3.13 xFIP in 130.1 IP, 23 starts). Wheeler could be considered among the best pitchers in baseball who have never captured a Cy Young Award. In the six full seasons he’s been with the Phillies, he’s posted over 5.0 WAR and a sub-3.00 ERA four times.
He looked to be on his way to doing it again, but he’s hit a rough patch recently with a 4.32 xERA and 4.47 xFIP over his last seven starts.
The Phillies haven't taken advantage of the Braves' inconsistencies this season because they've been victims of the same, evidenced by three months with a winning record and three months with a losing record. In July, they were brutal at 9-15 and eight games out of first, then rebounded to go 21-7.
They could make this division race interesting if they can win this weekend's series.
Braves vs. Phillies Winner Payout, Over/Under – Saturday, September 5
The Phillies enter Saturday’s game as home favorites, returning a 1.58x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Braves vs. Phillies game on PrizePicks.
Play the Braves vs. Phillies spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 36 states!
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Braves vs. Phillies Prediction on Winner – 9/5/26
Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Braves vs. Phillies prediction on the winner for Saturday, September 5.
Lock in your Braves vs. Phillies prediction on PrizePicks now.
Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.
- Wheeler is coming off his worst month of the season, sporting a 6.26 ERA over 6 starts in August.
- The Phillies have been stellar against lefties recently, ranking fourth in wOBA in August (.344).
- The rivalry has featured many high-scoring games this season, including more than 8 runs in four of six matchups.
- Perez is allowing a .263 xBA, which ranks in the 19th percentile. This could be a challenge against the Phillies, whose .251 xBA is second in the league.
- In Perez’s previous start against the Braves, he induced a 45.5% hard-hit rate, sixth-highest among his 23 starts in 2026. The Braves are still crushing the ball, ranking eighth in hard-hit rate (40.0%).
Braves vs. Phillies Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 9/5/26
Here are the top Braves vs. Phillies picks to target on Saturday, September 5. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Ronald Acuña Jr. and Alec Bohm.
Phillies 3B Alec Bohm vs. Braves: 5.5 Hitter Fantasy Score
- Bohm has been among the best hitters in baseball in recent weeks. Since July 27, he ranks ninth in xBA (.299), 14th in xwOBA (.375), and 15th in xSLG (.501).
- The Phillies third baseman has a great history against Perez, going 8-for-20 with a home run.
- Bohm has been far better at home against left-handed pitching than right-handed pitching. He has a .395 wOBA against lefties compared to a .295 wOBA against righties and a 17.6% HR/FB vs. lefties compared to 9.5% vs. righties.
- Perez struggles to force swings and misses, owning just a 22.1% whiff rate that ranks in the 26th percentile. Bohm's elite 16.4% whiff rate sits in the 86th percentile.
Add Alec Bohm to your PrizePicks lineup now.
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Braves RF Ronald Acuña Jr. vs. Phillies: 5 Hitter Fantasy Score
- Acuña Jr. has been red hot recently, ranking 10th in wOBA (.509) since August 28.
- The former MVP has shown off his power against Wheeler with 4 doubles and 4 home runs lifetime.
- Acuña is among the most disciplined at the plate, with his 12.3% walk rate in the 87th percentile. Wheeler is allowing a 7.8% walk rate (61st percentile).
- Wheeler throws the sinker 33% of the time to right-handed hitters, more than any other pitch. Acuña Jr. has been excellent against the sinker to the tune of a .361 xBA, .761 xSLG, and .492 xwOBA.
Add Ronald Acuña Jr. to your PrizePicks lineup now.
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This is the series to watch this weekend as the MLB postseason approaches. The Braves and Phillies are only separated by five games in the NL East, so Atlanta could gain a comfortable lead or Philadelphia could make the race tight.
Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your Braves vs. Phillies picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
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