Braves vs. Phillies Prediction, MLB Picks for Monday, September 7

First pitch for the Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies game is set for 1:05 p.m. ET on Monday, September 7, with the Phillies entering as home favorites and returning a 1.56x payout if they win, via PrizePicks.

Today’s contest is the finale of a four-game series between these division rivals. The Braves hold a 2-1 series lead and a 7-2 lead in the season set.

Philly finds itself just five games back of the Braves for the division lead, and a win today would go a long way in beginning a late-season push. Can the Phillies pull off a massive win in front of their home faithful?

Below, we'll break down our Braves vs. Phillies prediction and picks for Monday’s MLB game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your picks for Braves vs. Phillies on PrizePicks now.

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Braves vs. Phillies Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Monday, September 7

The Braves have played tremendous baseball all season, and with a record of 85-58, they also have a legit shot at picking up the National League's No. 1 overall seed.

This afternoon, they'll be sending SP Grant Holmes (4.51 xFIP) to the mound as they look for the series victory. Holmes has been serviceable this season, pitching to the tune of a 3.62 ERA. His xERA sits over a full run above that (4.73), so perhaps some regression is in the future for the Braves righty.

The Phillies are 80-63 and only have four games remaining against their division rivals, so securing a tiebreaker is off the table. Still, if Philly can close strong (especially against Atlanta), it has a fair shot at stealing the NL East crown.  

In what may be the Phillies' most important game, there's perhaps nobody they would want on the mound more than SP Jesus Luzardo (2.96 xFIP). Luzardo has been phenomenal this season, but he's been unlucky at home with a 4.52 ERA compared to a 1.76 mark on the road.

The good news is his peripherals are similarly elite in either split, so the difference may be chalked up to sample size, fortune, and Citizens Bank Park being hitter-friendly.

Braves vs. Phillies Winner Payout, Over/Under – Monday, September 7

The Phillies enter Monday’s game as home favorites against the Braves, returning a 1.56x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Braves vs. Phillies game on PrizePicks.

Play the Braves vs. Phillies spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks.

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Braves vs. Phillies Prediction on Winner – 9/7/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Braves vs. Phillies prediction on the winner for Monday, September 7.

Lock in your Braves vs. Phillies prediction on PrizePicks now.

Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.

• Luzardo has been filthy all season, and his 2.96 xFIP sits almost two full runs above that of his counterpart Holmes (4.51).
• Neither offense has been tearing the cover off the ball over the last month, but Philadelphia's been better. Philly is 16th in wRC+ (98) over the last 30 days.
• The Braves' offense has been ice-cold, meanwhile, ranking 26th in wRC+ (85) over the same span.
• The Phillies' pen has also been superior to Atlanta's both this season and most recently. Philadelphia owns the third-best season xFIP (3.83) for relievers, as well as the sixth-best mark in the last two weeks (3.74).
• Atlanta, on the other hand, is 12th on the year (4.10) and 19th in the last 14 days (4.38).

Braves vs. Phillies Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 9/7/26

Here are the top Braves vs. Phillies picks to target on Monday, September 7. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Matt Olson and Jesus Luzardo.

Braves 1B Matt Olson vs. Phillies: 5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• This is a nightmare matchup for Olson against Luzardo, who owns a 1.96 xFIP vs. left-handed hitters this season.
• He's had minimal success off Luzardo as well, going 5-for-27 (.185) lifetime with 8 strikeouts.
• Olson is mired in a cold streak and hasn't scored more than this projection in his last four games, failing to even record a hit.
• The Braves lefty owns a 29% strikeout rate on the road against lefty pitchers. That is problematic against Luzardo, who strikes out lefties to the tune of a dominant 11.8 K/9.

Add Matt Olson to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Phillies P Jesus Luzardo vs. Braves: 7 Strikeouts

• In addition to owning the aforementioned 85 wRC+ in the last month, Atlanta's offense also has the sixth-highest strikeout rate at 24.1%.
• Luzardo is a model of consistency when it comes to punchouts. He's met or exceeded this projection in five out of his last six starts.
• Having pitched for the Marlins before his time in Philly, Luzardo has racked up quite a sample size against these Braves hitters, striking them out 52 times in 176 at-bats (29.5% K-rate).

Add Jesus Luzardo to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Make Braves vs. Phillies Picks on PrizePicks

We’ve got an incredibly fun and meaningful rivalry game to kick off an awesome slate of Labor Day baseball. Will the Braves continue their success this season over the Phillies, or will Philly ride with its big dog on the mound and pull off a huge win in front of its fans this afternoon?

Don’t wait until lock — make your Braves vs. Phillies picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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