Blue Jays vs. Yankees Prediction, MLB Picks for Thursday, May 21

The Toronto Blue Jays (22-27) and New York Yankees (30-20) will square off for the final matchup of a four-game series on Thursday, May 21 at 7:05 p.m. ET.

Entering Thursday’s showdown, New York is up 2-1 in the series despite losing 2-1 on Wednesday. A bases-loaded walk and a sac fly were enough for Toronto to pull out the win and avoid the sweep.

Ahead of first pitch, the Yankees are home favorites with a 1.58x payout if they defeat the Blue Jays, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Below, we'll break down our Blue Jays vs. Yankees prediction and picks for Thursday’s MLB contest, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Blue Jays vs. Yankees prediction on PrizePicks for today’s game.

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Blue Jays vs. Yankees Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Thursday, May 21

For the final game in this series, it’ll be the Blue Jays’ Braydon Fisher (3.88 xFIP across 1 start, 23 relief appearances, and 26.1 IP in 2026) and the Yankees’ Carlos Rodon (4.69 xFIP across 2 starts and 8 IP) on the mound. 

Fisher is expected to be the opener before Spencer Miles (3.24 xFIP across 1 start, 12 relief appearances, and 24.2 IP) gets handed the ball.

Fisher is carrying a 40th percentile xERA (4.36) alongside his 3.08 ERA, and he's in the 35th percentile in walk rate (9.9%), per Baseball Savant. Meanwhile, Miles ranks in the 74th percentile in xERA (3.26) and 75th percentile in walk rate (7.0%), though he’s in the 41st percentile in xBA (.248).

On the season, Toronto’s lineup is producing the sixth-worst wRC+ (90), fourth-worst wOBA (.302), and third-worst ISO (.126), via FanGraphs.

Rodon is set to make his third start this season, and his biggest issue right now is issuing free passes, as he is logging a dismal 21.1% walk rate. At the very least, he’s been slightly better than his 5.63 ERA indicates, earning a 4.18 xERA over his first two outings in 2026.

Although New York’s lineup hasn’t been as effective recently, it still owns the third-best wRC+ (115), third-best wOBA (.336), and best ISO (.194) in the league. Despite RF Aaron Judge striking out seven times over his last two contests, he’s still recording a 163 wRC+, .408 wOBA, and .311 ISO.

Blue Jays vs. Yankees Spread, Over/Under – Thursday, May 21

The Yankees enter Thursday’s game as home favorites, returning a 1.58x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Blue Jays vs. Yankees game on PrizePicks.

• Spread: New York Yankees -1.5 (2.22x payout)
• Over/Under: 8.5 (2x payout on Over)
• Game Winner Payout: Blue Jays 2.27x | Yankees 1.58x

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Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Blue Jays vs. Yankees Prediction on Over/Under – 5/21/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Blue Jays vs. Yankees prediction on the run total for Thursday, May 21.

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• Both Fisher and Miles are right-handed pitchers, and the Yankees are tallying the fifth-best wRC+ (111), seventh-best wOBA (.331), and best ISO (.186) against righties.
• New York is also posting the best wRC+ (139), best wOBA (.371), and ISO (.241) when playing at home.
• As a result of their impressive splits at Yankee Stadium, the Yankees have the fourth-highest rate of hitting the over at home (63.6%) this season.
• While New York’s bullpen has the third-best xERA (3.35) and ninth-best WHIP (1.27), it has just the 16th-best xERA (3.63) and 17th-best WHIP (1.29) over the last 14 days.
• Toronto’s relievers are registering the 11th-worst xERA (4.23) and eighth-worst HR/9 (1.25) across the last 14 days.
• Even though the Blue Jays’ bats have been ice-cold, Rodon is struggling with walks and has a 10.5% barrel rate allowed.
• Additionally, there have been at least 9 total runs scored in five of the last seven meetings between these American League East rivals. That includes 9+ runs scored in two of the three games of the current series.

Blue Jays vs. Yankees Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 5/21/26

Here are the top Blue Jays vs. Yankees picks to target on Thursday, May 21. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include LF Cody Bellinger and 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Yankees LF Cody Bellinger vs. Blue Jays Projection: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI

• When facing right-handed pitching this season, Cody Bellinger owns a formidable 141 wRC+, .376 wOBA, and .193 ISO.
• Bellinger has enjoyed playing at Yankee Stadium this year, as he’s accrued a remarkable 237 wRC+, .516 wOBA, and .400 ISO at home.
• Miles is expected to handle the majority of the work for the Blue Jays, and he’s notching a 1.20 WHIP and 1.54 HR/9 against lefties in 2026.
• Besides being on a four-game hitting streak, Bellinger has achieved at least 2 hits + runs + RBI in six of his last 10 outings.

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Blue Jays 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. vs. Yankees Projection: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI

• Despite the Blue Jays struggling against lefties as a team, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. boasts a stellar 162 wRC+, .407 wOBA, and .194 ISO in that split.
• Guerrero is in decent form, achieving 2 or more hits + runs + RBI in three of his last four contests. That includes two of the first three meetings against the Yankees this year.
• It’s a small sample size still, but Rodon is logging a 4.87 xFIP and 1.50 WHIP when facing righties in 2026.
• Just last season, Rodon had a 4.00 xFIP, 1.09 WHIP, and 1.02 HR/9 to righties, compared to a 3.51 xFIP, 0.91 WHIP, and 1.00 HR/9 to lefties.

Add Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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The Blue Jays have already avoided the sweep against the Yankees in their first series of the 2026 campaign with a narrow victory in a low-scoring affair on Wednesday.

We could see more runs put up on the scoreboard for Thursday’s bout due to the pitchers who will be on the bump.

Don’t wait until first pitch — make your Blue Jays vs. Yankees picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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