Wednesday, September 30 brings us another amazing four-game slate of playoff baseball, with games running from 2 p.m. ET in Atlanta through the night in San Diego. With the postseason finally here, plenty of baseball's biggest sluggers are stepping into the box today.
We'll use hard-hit rates, barrel rates, pitcher splits, batted-ball tendencies, pitch matchups, and more to identify three hitters with strong home run cases.
PrizePicks offers daily home run projections for your MLB picks, and some hitters have particularly intriguing matchups on today's playoff schedule.
Below, we'll break down three of the best MLB home run picks today for the Wild Card games on Wednesday, September 30, including player matchups, recent production, advanced metrics, and more.
Make your MLB home run picks on PrizePicks for the Wild Card Round!
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Best Home Run Picks Today for MLB Wild Card Round – Wednesday, September 30
We all know hitting a home run is one of the hardest things to do in professional sports. With some research, however, we can attempt to conclude which sluggers might be primed to round the bases on Wednesday.
How hard is each player hitting the ball? Are their batted balls on the ground or in the air? Do they match up well against the pitcher on the mound? Is the ballpark favorable for home runs? What's the weather like that day or night? That's just the tip of the iceberg.
Because going yard is so difficult, home run predictions are Demons on PrizePicks and come with higher payouts than standard. Additionally, you can only choose "More" on HR projections, which are set at 0.5.
Here are the most popular home run picks for today on PrizePicks as of writing.
- Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
- White Sox 1B Munetaka Murakami
- Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber
- Cubs CF Pete Crow-Armstrong
- Phillies 1B Bryce Harper
- Padres OF/IF Fernando Tatis Jr.
- Braves 1B Matt Olson
- Braves RF Ronald Acuna Jr.
- Padres 3B Manny Machado
- Yankees 1B Ben Rice
Below, we’ll break down three matchups for today, including the opposing starting pitcher with advanced stats from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, capped by a weather report via RotoGrinders.
Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros – 5 p.m. ET
White Sox Starting Pitcher: Sean Burke (27 GS, 11-7, 4.00 xFIP, 43.3% FB%, 29.9% hard-hit rate)
MLB Weather Report: Game played in a dome
- We’re going right back to the Yordan well today, and it helps that he has been significantly better at home. The big lefty is slashing .365/.474/.695 with a 218 wRC+ in Houston compared to a .266/.390/.507 slash line and 144 wRC+ on the road.
- Alvarez went through quite a cold stretch last month but gained some real momentum as the season came to a close. He clubbed 3 homers over his last 10 games and went 15-for-38 (.395) with 6 extra-base hits over the same stretch.
- His contact profile is absolutely elite. At home, he has a 51.7% hard-hit rate and 42.7% fly ball rate. He also has an elite 94.4 MPH average exit velocity and a 14.7% barrel rate.
- Burke hasn’t allowed too much hard contact but has seen his hard-hit rate spike from 29.6% in the first half of the season to 34.1% in the second half. His fly ball clip also jumped from 43.5% to 48.6%.
- When Burke exits the game, Alvarez will get to take his hacks against a White Sox bullpen that has a 4.38 xFIP (22nd) and the third-highest fly ball rate (43.8%) in baseball over the last month.
Add Yordan Alvarez to your PrizePicks lineup now.
Yankees 1B Ben Rice
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees – 8 p.m. ET
Red Sox Starting Pitcher: Sonny Gray (29 GS, 18-5, 3.68 xFIP, 34.2% FB%, 34.9% hard-hit rate)
MLB Weather Report: 70 degrees, clear skies, no relevant wind conditions
- Rice enters Game 2 after an enormous postseason debut. He went 4-for-5 with 2 home runs and 6 RBIs in Tuesday's 9-0 victory over Boston, including a grand slam that helped put the game out of reach.
- The Yankees slugger has an elite contact profile for home runs. Against right-handed pitching, he has a hard-hit rate of 44.0% and a fly ball rate of 42.9%.
- Rice also does a good job pulling the ball in the air. His 45.1% pull rate and 20.2% pull-air clip give him a clear route to Yankee Stadium's short right-field porch when he makes contact.
- Speaking of Yankee Stadium, according to Baseball Savant’s Park Factors, it's the second-most homer-friendly stadium in baseball and has seen the second-most jacks hit this season.
- Rice also owns his matchup tonight against Gray. In his career, Rice has gone 3-for-7 with 2 home runs vs. Boston's starting righty.
Add Ben Rice to your PrizePicks lineup now.
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Padres OF Fernando Tatis Jr.
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres – 10 p.m. ET
Cubs Starting Pitcher: Kevin Gausman (32 GS, 9-12, 3.58 xFIP, 44.3% FB%, 38.7% hard-hit rate)
MLB Weather Report: 71 degrees, clear conditions, no relevant wind conditions
- I absolutely love this matchup for Tatis, who is coming off a strong opening game against Chicago, launching a home run in San Diego's 8-0 victory. He also scored 3 runs.
- He has an elite contact profile with an 11.9% barrel rate and 92.2 mph average exit velocity.
- Gausman has been a reverse-splits pitcher, allowing a 44.3% fly ball rate and 38.7% hard-hit rate to right-handed hitters but marks of just 37.2% and 34.8%, respectively, to lefties. .
- This contact profile is probably why Gausman owns a 1.75 HR/9 against RHH compared to 0.99 vs. LHH.
- Tatis’ power against fastballs is worth highlighting in this matchup. He's slugged .470 against four-seam fastballs in 2026 with a .553 xSLG.
- Nando has also hit much better at home, owning a .316 average at Petco Park compared to a .265 ledger on the road this year.
- Tatis has also done damage against Gausman throughout his career, going 8-for-23 against the righty with a pair of home runs.
Add Fernando Tatis Jr. to your PrizePicks lineup now.
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Playoff baseball is finally here, and many sluggers are stepping in the batter's box for this Wednesday slate.
Alvarez aims to build on his outstanding regular season at home, where he's had a ton of success, while Rice enters Game 2 after launching a pair of home runs already. Tatis also homered in Game 1 and will look to carry that power into another favorable matchup at Petco Park.
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