Tuesday, September 29, brings us a glorious four-game slate of playoff baseball, with games running from 2:00 p.m. ET in Atlanta to 10:00 p.m. in San Diego.
With the MLB Playoffs finally here, plenty of baseball's best sluggers are stepping into the box today, and we'll use hard-hit rates, barrel rates, pitcher splits, batted-ball tendencies, pitch matchups, and weather to identify three hitters with strong home run cases.
Below, we'll break down our best MLB home run picks today for the Wild Card Round, including each player's matchup, recent production, advanced batted-ball metrics, and what makes them a popular home run pick on Tuesday, September 29.
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Best Home Run Picks for the Wild Card Round – Tuesday, September 29
We all know hitting a home run is one of the hardest things to do in professional sports. However, with a little bit of research, we can use various trends to determine which mashers are primed to circle the bases today.
How hard is each player hitting the ball? Are their batted balls on the ground or in the air? Do they match up well against the pitcher on the mound? Is the ballpark favorable for home runs? What direction is the wind blowing?
That's the icing on the cake when breaking down home run projections.
Because going yard is difficult, home run predictions are demons on PrizePicks and come with higher payouts than standard. Additionally, you can only choose "More" on HR projections, which are set at 0.5.
Here are the most popular home run picks for today on PrizePicks as of writing.
- Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
- White Sox 1B Munetaka Murakami
- Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber
- Cubs OF Pete Crow-Armstrong
- Phillies 1B Bryce Harper
- Padres OF Fernando Tatis Jr.
- Braves 1B Matt Olson
- Braves OF Ronald Acuna Jr.
- Padres 3B Manny Machado
Below, we’ll break down three matchups for today, including the opposing starting pitcher with advanced stats from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, capped by a weather report via RotoGrinders.
White Sox 1B Munetaka Murakami
Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros – 5:00 p.m. ET
Astros Starting Pitcher: The Astros will pitch a bullpen game today.
MLB Weather Report: Game played in a dome.
- Murakami’s first AB will come against RHP AJ Blubaugh, who has a 1.22 HR/9 and gives up a 51.1% fly ball rate to left-handed hitters.
- The rest of his ABs will likely come against an Astros bullpen that has given up a 47.6% fly ball rate over the last month, the highest in baseball during that span.
- Murakami has an explosive contact profile, hitting the ball hard 44.5% of the time and launching a fly ball on 45.1% of his contact.
- His recent form is excellent, too. Murakami has 4 home runs over his last 10 games, including a 2-homer, 3-RBI performance vs. the Rockies on Friday. He has also recorded 10 hits and 7 extra-base hits in that 10-game split.
Add Munetaka Murakami to your PrizePicks lineup now.
Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros – 5:00 p.m. ET
White Sox Starting Pitcher: The White Sox will pitch a bullpen game today.
MLB Weather Report: Game is played in a dome.
- Alvarez will take his hacks against a White Sox bullpen that has a 4.38 xFIP (22nd) and the third-highest fly ball rate (43.8%) in baseball over the last month.
- Yordan has been the best hitter in MLB this season, and he's been significantly better at home. He is slashing .365/.474/.695 with a 218 wRC+ in Houston compared to a .266/.390/.507 slash line and 144 wRC+ on the road.
- He's also entering the playoffs with some legitimate momentum. Alvarez has 3 homers over his last 10 games, including a 2-run blast vs. the Mariners on September 22 and another homer vs. the Royals on September 17. He has gone 15 for 38 (.395) with 6 extra-base hits over his last 10 games.
- Alvarez probably has the best contact profile in all of baseball. At home, he has a 51.7% hard-hit rate and a 42.7% fly ball rate. Alvarez also has an elite 94.4 mph average exit velocity (99th percentile) and a 14.7% barrel rate (98th percentile).
Add Yordan Alvarez to your PrizePicks lineup now.
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Padres 3B Manny Machado
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres – 10:00 p.m. ET
Cubs Starting Pitcher: Matthew Boyd (22 GS, 10-5, 4.32 xFIP, 42.0 FB%, 32.1% hard-hit rate)
MLB Weather Report: 72 degrees, clear conditions, and no relevant wind conditions.
- Machado's season-long Statcast numbers aren't quite as impressive as Murakami's or Alvarez's, but he still owns a 9.7% barrel rate (67th percentile) and 92.9 mph average exit velocity (67th percentile).
- His 14.5-degree average launch angle also gives him enough lift to turn his hard contact into extra-base damage.
- Machado’s best split as a hitter is at home against left-handed pitching, where he owns a 122 wRC+.
- Manny has a 41.4% hard-hit rate and 44.1% fly ball rate against left-handed pitching.
- He also increased his overall hard-hit rate from 34.7% in the first half of the season to 37.6% in the second half.
- Boyd has allowed 1.07 HR/9 this season, with that rate jumping to 1.34 against right-handed hitting.
- Machado also has great numbers against the Cubs lefty, going 9 for 20 with 4 doubles and 1 home run.
Add Manny Machado to your PrizePicks lineup now.
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October baseball is finally here, and many sluggers are stepping in the batter's box for this Tuesday slate.
Yordan Alvarez and Munetaka Murakami will look to carry their power-laden regular-season form into favorable matchups against the opposition's bullpens, while Manny Machado will look to add another homer against a soft-tossing Cubs lefty.
Don't wait until the first pitch — make your home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you're right.
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