Best MLB Home Run Picks Today – Monday, September 7

Monday, September 7 brings us a fantastic 11-game Labor Day slate, with games running from early in Philly to late in Los Angeles. Plenty of home run sluggers are stepping in the box, and we will be using hard-hit rates, weather, pitcher/batter splits, and more to analyze which of ones may have the best chance to leave the yard. 

PrizePicks offers daily home run projections for your MLB picks, and some hitters have been circled as the most popular home run picks among users on today’s schedule.

Below, we’ll break down the most-picked MLB home run predictions for Monday, including each player’s matchup, recent production, and what makes them a popular home run pick today.

Make your MLB home run picks for Monday, September 7, on PrizePicks now.

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Best Home Run Picks Today – Monday, September 7

We all know hitting a home run is one of the hardest things to do in professional sports. However, with a little bit of research, we can use various trends to determine which mashers could round the bases.

How hard is each player hitting the ball, and are those batted balls on the ground or in the air? Does a hitter match up well against the opposing pitcher? What's the wind like that day or night? That’s just the beginning.

Due to the difficulty of going yard, home run predictions are Demons on PrizePicks, which come with a higher payout than standard. Additionally, you can only choose "More" on HR projections, which are set at 0.5.

Here are the most popular home run picks for today on PrizePicks as of writing.

1. Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani
2. Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
3. Giants 1B Rafael Devers
4. Orioles 1B Pete Alonso
5. Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber
6. Mets OF Juan Soto
7. Dodgers 3B Max Muncy
8. Cubs OF Pete Crow-Armstrong
9. Padres OF Fernando Tatis Jr.

Below, we’ll break down three matchups for today, including the opposing starting pitcher with advanced stats from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, capped by a weather report via RotoGrinders.

Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies – 1:05 p.m. ET

Braves Starting Pitcher: Grant Holmes (26 GS, 9-5, 4.51 xFIP, 40.9% hard-hit, 35.3 FB%)

MLB Weather Report: 78 degrees, clear skies, light wind in from CF at 6 mph

• You probably don’t need me to tell you that MLB’s HR leader might homer today, but his matchup today is especially favorable.
• Holmes has struggled mightily with power to left-handed bats, giving up a 1.35 HR/9.
• He is also giving up hard contact 40.9% of the time to lefties, and his hard contact rate is up from 38.4% in the first half of the season to 41.1% in the second half.
• Schwarber owns a monster 42.9% hard-hit rate against RHP and a 50.3% fly ball rate to boot.
• The superstar DH has also been a better player at home, hitting .257 (compared to .225 on the road) and clubbing 26 of his 42 home runs at Citizens Bank Park.

Add Kyle Schwarber to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Red Sox OF Roman Anthony

Los Angeles Angels vs. Boston Red Sox – 1:35 p.m. ET

Angels Starting Pitcher: Grayson Rodriguez (16 GS, 4-6, 4.48 xFIP, 39.7% hard-hit, 39.7 FB%)

MLB Weather Report: 74 degrees, clear skies, wind blowing left to right at 10 mph

• Anthony has shown off a bit more pop since coming off the IL, homering in two of his first seven games back.
• He catches an awesome matchup against Rodriguez, who is allowing a 1.49 HR/9 against left-handed hitters.
• Rodriguez’s HR/9 rate has jumped significantly from 1.15/9 in the first half to 1.54/9 in the second half.
• He's giving up a 39.7% hard-hit rate and a 39.7% fly ball rate to left-handed hitters, too.
• In a much larger sample size in 2025, Anthony owned a ridiculous 47.5% hard-hit rate against RHP to go along with a serviceable 32.5% fly ball rate.

Add Roman Anthony to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Giants 1B Rafael Devers

St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Francisco Giants – 8:10 p.m. ET

Cardinals Starting Pitcher: Michael McGreevy (27 GS, 6-9, 4.26 xFIP, 38.3% hard-hit, 37.4 FB%)

MLB Weather Report: 67 degrees, clear skies, wind blowing out to CF at 15 mph

• Devers has slugged six home runs in his last seven games.
• The veteran has increased his walk rate by 4% in the second half, also lowering his K-rate by 5%, increasing his .ISO from .230 to .320, and raising his wRC+ from 118 to 163.
• Don’t be concerned about Oracle’s expansive ballpark holding him back. He has slugged 17 HR at home compared to 18 on the road.
• McGreevy is allowing a 1.37 HR/9 on the road against left-handed hitters. Additionally, his HR/9 has spiked from 1.15 in the first half to 1.38 in the second half.
• McGreevy is also giving up a 38.3% hard-hit rate and a 37.4% flyball rate to left-handed bats.
• Devers' best split this season has been at home against RHP, where he's hitting .308 and owns a truly ridiculous 171 wRC+.

Add Rafael Devers to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Make MLB Home Run Picks on PrizePicks

Schwarber looks to add to his home run lead in a glorious home matchup this afternoon. Elsewhere, Anthony aims to show off some newfound pop against a fly ball pitcher and Devers tries to remain the hottest hitter in baseball with a Labor Day bomb in front of his home crowd.

Don’t wait until first pitch today — make your home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on MLB game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 36 states.

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