Best MLB Home Run Picks, Predictions Today – Monday, August 17

The Monday, August 17 MLB slate is set for 11 games today, including a single daytime game in Cincinnati as part of a doubleheader. As the weather heats up and the summer hits its peak, we have seven players with 30+ homers, with Phillies' Kyle Schwarber leading the league with 37 homers.  

Here at PrizePicks, we have plenty of home run projections on the board to make your MLB home run picks on today. Some hitters have already been singled out by users as popular home run picks for the day’s action.

Let’s dive into some of the most-picked MLB home run predictions from users for Monday, August 17, including who makes the best potential target for home run predictions today.

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Best Home Run Picks Today – Monday, August 17

There are plenty of factors to consider when projecting home run hitters, including the opposing pitcher, ballpark, weather, bat speed, barrel quality, and swing path.

Which players could be in good positions to hit a home run on Monday, August 17? Daily home run projections are listed as Demons on PrizePicks, coming with higher payouts as a result. With that said, home runs can only be selected as “More” than 0.5. 

Let’s take a look at the most popular home run picks today on PrizePicks. Picks are listed at time of writing.

1. Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani
2. Yankees 1B Luis Garcia Jr. 
3. White Sox SS Colson Montgomery
4. Rockies C Hunter Goodman
5. Phillies 1B Bryce Harper
6. Cubs OF Pete Crow-Armstrong
7. Cubs OF Seiya Suzuki
8. Tigers 1B Spencer Torkelson
9. Yankees 1B Ben Rice

Three home run picks stand out as potential targets today, each with at least 27 home runs on the season. Let’s dive into the list, including MLB weather reports from RotoGrinders.

Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.

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Orioles 1B Pete Alonso

Game: Orioles at Rays, 6:05 p.m. ET

Rays Starting Pitcher: Nick Martinez (12-3, 4.43 xERA, 1.04 HR/9)

MLB Weather Report: Game played in a dome

• Pete Alonso’s 27 home runs lead the Orioles and are tied for the ninth-most in the majors.  
• Per Statcast, the Orioles slugger ranks in the 98th percentile among MLB hitters in xSLG (.540), exit velo (94.2), and hard-hit percentage (56.4%).  
• Alonso has a hit in eight straight games, batting .552 (16-29), with 4 HR and 9 RBI since August 9. 
• Rays starter Nick Martinez has allowed 5 HR over his last 3 starts, including a season-high 4 long balls on July 31 vs. the White Sox.  

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Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani

Game: Dodgers at Rockies – 8:40 p.m. ET

Rockies Starting Pitcher: Tomoyuki Sugano (12-5, 6.87 xERA, 1.90 HR/9)

MLB Weather Report: 86 degrees, 2% chance of rain, 5 MPH winds

• Shohei Ohtani’s 27 home runs lead the Dodgers and are tied for ninth-most in the majors. 
• The four-time MVP is ninth in the league in slugging (.540) and in the 99th percentile in xSLG (.568), while also in the 96th percentile (ninth overall) in hard-hit percentage (52.8%).  
• Ohtani is 5-for-8 in his career vs. Rockies starter Tomoyuki Sugano, with 3 home runs and 3 RBI. 
• Sugano’s 1.90 HR/9 ratio is fifth-worst among all pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched. His 6.87 xERA is second-worst. He has allowed at least one home run in 9 straight starts, giving up 13 homers over this stretch.  

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Cubs OF Pete Crow-Armstrong

Game: White Sox at Cubs – 8:05 p.m. ET

White Sox Starting Pitcher: Luis Castillo (4-9, 2.78 xERA, 0.82 HR/9)

MLB Weather Report: 73 degrees, 10% chance of rain, 4 MPH winds to the east

• Pete Crow-Armstrong’s 27 home runs lead the Cubs and are tied for the ninth-most in the majors.  
• PCA went deep on Sunday vs. St. Louis and is now just four away from his career-high 31 set in 2025.  
• Per Statcast, the Cubs slugger is in the 86th percentile in hard-hit percentage (48.5), and in the 80th percentile in xSLG (.464). 
• White Sox pitcher Luis Castillo has allowed at least one home run in four of his last five starts. 

Add Pete Crow-Armstrong Home Run to your PrizePicks MLB Lineup

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A slate of 11 MLB games is on tap today in the hot August air. Can Shohei Ohtani continue his dominance of the Rockies starter Sugano? Or will Pete Crow-Armstrong add another homer to his MVP bid? 

Don’t wait until first pitch on Monday — make your MLB home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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