Opening night of the 2026 NFL season features a Super Bowl rematch, as the Patriots visit the Seahawks on Wednesday, September 9. Both teams figure to compete for a Lombardi Trophy this season, but don’t sleep on dark horses to make a run.
Not many foresaw the Patriots or Seahawks appearing in Super Bowl LX before the 2025 season kicked off. With that said, Super Bowl sleepers should be taken seriously, and we’ll circle a pair of squads in our best long shot Super Bowl predictions.
First, let’s look at the latest 2027 Super Bowl winner payouts via PrizePicks. Then, we’ll break down our long shot Super Bowl picks.
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Payouts for Super Bowl Long Shots on PrizePicks
The Los Angeles Rams enter 2026 as the clear favorite, and this one’s not really up for debate.
After appearing in last year’s NFC Championship while QB Matthew Stafford won MVP, the Rams got richer by trading for two-time All-Pro CB Trent McDuffie and two-time Defensive Player of the Year EDGE Myles Garrett.
Plus, DT Aaron Donald, the future Hall of Famer, returned from retirement — though he will be inactive in Week 1.
The Seahawks, aka the reigning champions, and Bills have the next-shortest payouts to win Super Bowl LXI. Check out the full list for the 13 shortest payouts to win the 2027 Super Bowl, via PrizePicks.
Payouts show potential returns on correct Team Picks predictions. A 2x payout returns $200 on a $100 entry. Lower multipliers reflect outcomes users are picking as more likely. Payouts are live as of writing and subject to change.
Best Long Shot Super Bowl Predictions
Before we get into our Super Bowl predictions, what truly creates a long shot? For the purpose of this article, we’ll only consider teams with a 14.28x payout or greater to win the Super Bowl.
Remember, the higher the payout, the lower the probability of the event occurring, according to user picks on PrizePicks.
The Jaguars (22.22x), Lions (16.66x), and Packers (16.66x) have intriguing cases to make a run, but two squads stand out among the rest.
Bengals to Win Super Bowl: Yes 14.28x | No 1.02x
Cincinnati has been here, making an improbable run to Super Bowl LVI, when it lost 23-20 to the Rams in Los Angeles.
Super Bowl LXI is once again in Los Angeles’ SoFi Stadium, and the Rams enter as clear favorites to win it all. The Bengals enacting revenge by knocking off a loaded Rams squad in their backyard would make for one heck of a story.
Similar to 2022’s run, Cincy still features one of football’s best offenses — anchored by QB Joe Burrow throwing to WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
The Stripes’ 2025 season was thrown off by Burrow missing nine games from a toe injury. But, among QBs with at least 200 plays last season, his 0.232 adjusted EPA per play was sixth, per to RBSDM. In 2024, Burrow also logged 0.232 adjusted EPA per play (fourth).
Following back-to-back First Team All-Pro seasons with 1,708 and 1,412 receiving yards, Chase is suddenly widely regarded as the best wide receiver in the National Football League. Higgins continues to be a high-quality WR2, stacking 911 and 846 receiving yards in his last two seasons.
RB Chase Brown also quietly reached at least 1,350 scrimmage yards in back-to-back campaigns. The offensive line posted a strong 72% run block win rate (10th), per ESPN. Most importantly, Cincinnati’s sack rate allowed was down to 5.33% (10th-lowest).
With a solid offensive line, one could argue the Bengals could have an even better offense than in 2022.
A Super Bowl run rests on the defense, which surrendered 0.122 EPA per play (29th) last season. Cincy answered the bell by trading for one of the best interior defensive linemen in football, Dexter Lawrence.
After an absurd 2024 season with 9.0 sacks over 12 games as a nose tackle, Lawrence produced only half a sack last year. However, among DTs who took at least 440 pass rush snaps, Lawrence’s 19.7% pass rush win rate was the fifth-highest for his position, per Pro Football Focus.
Furthermore, he did that with ESPN giving him a lofty 71% double-team rate. Lawrence simply demanding that level of attention matters, but paired with a high win rate, Sexy Dexy could truly change this defense.
Don’t sleep on CB DJ Turner II either, who had a breakout 2025 campaign. He forced a 25.8% incompletion rate (first), forced 16 incompletions (tied for fourth), gave up only a 30.6% open-target rate (fourth), and maintained all of that while carrying a high 11.2% targeted rate (ninth).
Lawrence paired with a true CB1 could be enough to take the Bengals’ defense from allowing 28.9 PPG (30th) in 2025 to a respectable unit. That could be all it takes to contend, as Burrow, Chase, Higgins, and Brown spearhead an elite offense.
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Texans to Win Super Bowl: Yes 14.28x | No 1.02x
Defense wins championships, and perhaps no other team encapsulates that like the Houston Texans.
They don’t have much to prove on that side of the ball, yielding only 17.3 PPG (second) and 4.7 yards per play (second) in 2025. The advanced numbers firmly checked out, including -0.108 EPA per play (second), a 39.5% success rate (second), -0.097 EPA per dropback (first), and -0.129 EPA per rushing attempt (third).
Frankly, good luck finding a weakness on this defense. The front seven generated an 8.55% sack rate (fifth) and a 32% run stop win rate (sixth), while the unit forced a league-best 1.8 turnovers per game.
According to PrizePicks, Texans EDGE Will Anderson Jr. has the second-shortest payout to win Defensive Player of the Year (4.34x). Anderson comes off First Team All-Pro honors, logging 13 sacks (seventh), 93 pressures (third), 70 hurries (first), and a 23% pass rush win rate (fourth among EDGEs).
As if that wasn’t enough, EDGE Danielle Hunter racked up 16 sacks (third), 59 hurries (fourth), and 83 pressures (fifth) opposite of Anderson. Plus, CBs Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter are an elite duo in the secondary.
This is truly as good as it gets on defense, but Houston must clean up its offense that tallied just -0.008 EPA per play (22nd) and 5.1 yards per play (25th).
However, the unit still posted 23.7 PPG (13th), and QB C.J. Stroud wasn’t as bad as most claim, backed by his 0.164 adjusted EPA per play (12th).
The potential comes down to the offensive line, which posted a 56% pass block win rate (30th) and a 68% run block win rate (32nd) a year ago.
As a former first-round pick, LT Aireontae Ersery still has potential to develop into a quality starter in his second season. Houston also spent the #26 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft on G Keylan Rutledge.
A youth resurgence on the O-line with RB David Montgomery joining as the lead tailback may help this offense improve its efficiency.
The Texans have been a popular sleeper pick for the upcoming season. If Stroud taps into his 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign alongside this punishing defense, Houston is in business to contend.
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The Bengals and Texans are a pair of teams to watch for Super Bowl long shots. Each team is led by one of the league’s best units but must improve on the other side of the ball to truly contend for a Lombardi Trophy.
The NFL regular season begins on September 9, and users can make NFL predictions for the upcoming 2026 season, including playoff qualifiers, the Super Bowl winner, award winners, and more on PrizePicks Team Picks — available in 36 states!
Stay locked in on Playbook for daily NFL news, picks, analysis, and more all the way through Super Bowl LXI.
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