Astros vs. Yankees Prediction, MLB Picks – Wednesday, August 26

First pitch for the Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees game is set for 7:05 p.m ET on Wednesday, August 26, with the Yankees entering as home favorites, returning a 1.69x payout if they win, via PrizePicks.

This is game two of the final three-game series between these teams. The Yankees won the first series 2-1 in Houston, but the Astros took game one, 9-7.

The Astros will pitch Peter Lambert (8-7, 4.43 xFIP) as they look to clinch the series, while Yankees manager Aaron Boone is expected to go with rookie Elmer Rodriguez (0-2, 6.07 xFIP) on the mound to either start or work bulk innings.

Below, we'll break down our Astros vs. Yankees prediction and picks for Wednesday’s MLB game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

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Astros vs. Yankees, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Wednesday, August 26

The Houston Astros pulled off a much-needed victory on Monday night, improving their record to 66-66 and giving them a 0.5-game lead in the AL West over the Rangers. Houston holds the tiebreaker against the Rangers, but perhaps their biggest threat lurks just 2.5 games behind them in the Seattle Mariners.

Seattle holds the tiebreaker against Houston and has the easiest remaining strength of schedule in all of baseball, with Houston having the 13th-toughest and Texas the 10th.

The Astros will be sending RHP Peter Lambert (4.44 xFIP) to the mound tonight in the Bronx. Lambert has been a source of consistency for Houston this season, delivering 122.1 innings, but he may be starting to falter. He surrendered 9 ER in a home clunker to a weak Los Angeles Angels offense in his last start, marking six straight starts in which he has allowed multiple runs.

Despite last night’s loss, the Yankees have slowly been chipping away at the Tampa Bay Rays' lead in the AL East, currently at 3.5 games with 31 games left in the season.

They are starting to get healthier offensively, too, with OF Cody Bellinger returning in the last week, and OF Aaron Judge getting close to a comeback, with an early September return reportedly likely for the Yankees captain.

At the time of writing, the Yankees have not named a starter for tonight, but it is widely presumed that RHP Elmer Rodriguez (6.07 xFIP) will either start the game or work out of the pen in a bulk capacity.

Rodriguez’ first stint in the majors was a bumpy one, but he is a talented pitcher and has performed admirably since returning to AAA. He has allowed just 4 ER over 26 innings in his last five starts while striking out 29 batters. 

Astros vs. Yankees Winner Payout, Over/Under – Wednesday, August 26

The Yankees enter Wednesday’s game as home favorites against the Astros, returning a 1.69x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Astros vs. Yankees game on PrizePicks.

Play the Astros vs. Yankees spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 36 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Astros vs. Yankees Prediction on Winner – 08/26/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Astros vs. Yankees prediction on the winner for Wednesday, August 26.

Lock in your Astros vs. Yankees prediction on PrizePicks before the 7:05 p.m. ET lock.

Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.

• The Yankees' offense has started to come to life over the last week, owning a 117 wRC+ (5th best) in that span.
• The Astros' offense has been scuffling all season, especially in the last two weeks, where their 79 wRC+ ranks 26th in the majors.
• The starting-pitcher edge is neutral; Lambert has had more major league success than Rodriguez, but he seems to be dealing with fatigue, while Rodriguez has been pitching well at AAA and is a highly touted prospect ranked third among all Yankees prospects.
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• The Yankees' biggest edge in this game comes in the latter innings. New York’s bullpen has the sixth-best xFIP (3.94) and the seventh-best over the last two weeks (3.58 xFIP).
• The Astros’ bullpen, meanwhile, has been a weakness for them all season. They own a 4.29 xFIP this season (20th) and a 4.03 xFIP over the last two weeks (16th).

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Astros vs. Yankees Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks – 08/26/26

Here are the top Astros vs. Yankees picks to target on PrizePicks for Wednesday, August 26. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Peter Lambert and Cody Bellinger.

Astros P Peter Lambert vs. Yankees Projection: 2.5 Earned Runs

• As mentioned above, Lambert may be experiencing some fatigue as we enter the home stretch of the season. He has pitched 122.1 innings in 2026, his single-season career high (previous 89.1 IP).
• While Lambert does own an impressive 3.68 ERA, his 4.44 xFIP sits close to a full run above it, indicating he could be due for some negative regression down the stretch.
• The Houston RHP only has a .266 BABIP this season, well below both the major league average (.288) and his career average (.309). He has gotten lucky with balls put in play, and that luck could easily run out in a hitter-friendly park like Yankee Stadium.
• Lambert’s biggest weakness is his 4.97 BB/9 against LHB, well up from his 1.79 BB/9 against RHB.
• This weakness could get exposed against a Yankees lineup that has the fourth-highest walk rate in the majors (9.8%) and is projected to start seven LHB tonight.

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Yankees OF Cody Bellinger vs. Astros Projection: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI

• Bellinger marked his return with a big three-run homer last night, something he has done much better at home this season.
• Nine of his 12 home runs and 14 of his 21 doubles have come at Yankee Stadium, where he owns a .320 batting average, compared to .205 on the road.
• With Lambert’s incredibly high walk rates, there should be an ample amount of baserunners for Bellinger to drive in.
• Bellinger has gotten the best of Lambert in his career, going 4-for-9 against him with a double, home run, and two walks.
• If, for some reason, Bellinger can’t get the job done against Lambert, he should still get plenty of opportunity against an Astros bullpen that has given up the fifth-most home runs this season (74).

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Make Astros vs. Yankees Picks on PrizePicks

Two teams, both in the midst of heated divisional races, meet up tonight in the Bronx for what should be an incredibly fun game.

Can the Astros avenge their series loss against New York in April with a series win tonight? Or will New York continue to chip away at the Rays' division lead with a big win in front of their home crowd tonight? Astros vs. Yankees is just one of the games you can get in the MLB action on at PrizePicks.

Don’t wait until lock — make your Astros vs. Yankees picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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