Both US Open women’s semifinal matches will take place on Thursday night, and they should be good ones, as all four top seeds have reached this stage.
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula will begin the festivities on Arthur Ashe Stadium. Sabalenka is seeking her third straight US Open title and has been an absolute menace in hard-court majors for years now. Pegula is still gunning for her first Grand Slam title, but this is her third US Open semifinal in a row, and she was a finalist in 2024.
Below, we’ll break down our Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula prediction, including recent form, match analysis, and a PrizePicks pick. The match is slated to start at approximately 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks for Thursday’s match now!
{{tennis_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula Prediction, Favorite for the US Open Semifinals
Below are the payouts for who will win Thursday’s Sabalenka vs. Pegula match, via PrizePicks.
Tennis on PrizePicks got its biggest upgrade yet just in time for the US Open. Users can now combine a player to win outright with Player Picks, including aces, total games won, and more! Click here for more information.
On PrizePicks Team Picks, a 2x payout represents a return of $200 on a $100 entry (or $20 on $10). A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.
Payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. Tennis winner markets are available in 36 states.
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula Prediction for US Open – Thursday, September 10
Match Winner Payouts: Sabalenka 1.47x | Pegula 2.56x
Tournament Round: Women’s Semifinals
2026 Record Entering the US Open: Sabalenka 40-8 | Pegula 45-12
Head-to-Head Record: Sabalenka leads 9-4
Scheduled Time: 7 p.m. ET
How to Watch: ESPN
While both of these players were largely untested through four rounds, each one had to fight and claw their way through three sets in the quarterfinals.
Sabalenka entered her quarterfinal match against Linda Noskova having won both of their previous meetings in straight sets, but this time the Czech pushed the Belarusian to the limit. Sabalenka was aced 18 times and was at one point down 2-4 in the deciding set, yet narrowly escaped with a 7-6(1), 3-6, 7-6(7) victory.
Similarly, Jessica Pegula was 4-0 against fellow American Emma Navarro entering the quarters, but she had to come back from a set down to emerge with a 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 victory. Pegula was uncharacteristically shaky on serve, committing 8 double faults.
Both Sabalenka and Pegula come in battle-tested following their close calls, and they have impressive resumes on hard courts this season.
The Belarusian is now 32-3 on the surface, finishing runner-up at the Australian Open while winning titles in Miami, Indian Wells, and Brisbane. Meanwhile, the American is 34-7, and while she’s won just one hard-court title in 2026 (Dubai), she was a semifinalist at the Australian Open and was recently a finalist in both Cincinnati and Washington.
Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 9-4. However, Pegula has won two of their last three encounters, and their last four matches have all reached a deciding set. That includes their meeting in last year’s US Open semifinals, where Sabalenka edged out Pegula 4-6, 6-3, 6-4.
Per Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings, both women are top-five players on hard courts, and Sabalenka is showing a 64.1% win probability. While the world No. 1 could have the advantage, it’s a slight one at best.
Pegula might have a real shot, particularly if Sabalenka gets rattled by the pro-American crowd.
Make your Sabalenka vs. Pegula US Open prediction on PrizePicks now!
{{tennis_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula Pick for the US Open on Thursday
The last four matches between these two have totaled 29, 31, 27, and 29 games.
Sabalenka's match against Noskova was her first against a top-10 player at this US Open. The played to 35 total games.
Pegula is a respectable 7-6 against top-10 players in 2026. Nine of those matches have reached a deciding set and/or included a tiebreak.
Sabalenka is 6-2 vs. top-10 players this season, but six have gone to a third set and/or featured a tiebreak. Additionally, one of those two losses came against Pegula.
On hard courts this year, Sabalenka has won more service points (66.2%) compared to Pegula (62.4%), but both marks rank inside the top five. They've won roughly the same percentage of points on return, but Pegula holds a slight edge in that department (45.1% vs. 44.8%).
Sabalenka vs. Pegula Pick – 22.5 Total Games
Pick Pegula to win + total games on PrizePicks for higher payouts!
Make US Open Predictions Today on PrizePicks
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula is one of two fantastic women's semifinal matches on Thursday. Who will advance to Saturday's final?
Don’t wait until Thursday’s matches start — make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks now.
Pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats like games won or aces, or make match winner predictions with PrizePicks, available in 36 states!
Stay locked in on Playbook for daily US Open predictions, tennis picks, and PrizePicks analysis throughout the tournament.
Team Picks and Culture Picks are event contracts offered by Performance Predictions II, LLC d/b/a PrizePicks Predict, a CFTC-registered FCM and NFA Member. All event contract customers must be U.S. residents and 18+. Some event contracts may not be available in every state.Event contract trading carries significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. No guarantee against loss is offered. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.Void where prohibited by law. Restrictions apply. For full terms of service see prizepicks.com/predict-regulatory. Team and Culture Pick Early Payouts subject to market liquidity. The content provided is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, or a recommendation to trade any commodity interest.
