The Army Black Knights (1-2) travel to Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium in Greenville, N.C., on Thursday night for their AAC opener against East Carolina Pirates (2-2).
Both teams are coming off Week 4 losses; ECU fell 34-13 on the road at BYU, while Army dropped a 45-38 overtime thriller to North Texas.
Below, we’ll break down our Army vs. East Carolina prediction and the top PrizePicks player picks for this AAC showdown set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN tonight.
ECU leans on a high-volume passing attack led by Katin Houser, while Army remains one of the most run-heavy offenses in the country with its triple-option style. The Pirates hold an 8-1 advantage in the all-time series, but Army won last year’s meeting 45-28.
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Army vs. East Carolina Prediction, Preview: Thursday, Sept. 25
Here's a look inside the Army vs. East Carolina game prediction tonight, with previews for both sides of the ball.
Army Preview
Army’s playbook is no mystery — even in 2025. Pound the football, bleed the clock, and limit possessions.
Such has been the case with matchups like the one they have in front of them on Thursday against ECU. The Black Knights rank 5th in the nation in rushing offense (312.0 yards per game), with QB Dewayne Coleman leading the charge with 217 rushing yards and 2 TDs on top of his passing numbers (230 yards, 2 TDs).
RB Hayden Reed has provided balance, tallying 211 yards and 2 TDs in three games, including a 113-yard effort last week against North Texas.
Army’s triple-option has been particularly effective in short-yardage and red-zone situations, as they average 31.0 points (45th in the country) per game.
The issue is on defense. Army is giving up 362 yards per game (55th nationally). Their run defense is giving up 151.5 yards per game, ranking 67th, which has been a liability. That could finally give ECU the chance to establish balance on the ground.
Turnovers have also been costly. Army sits at -0.5 in turnover margin per game (86th nationally), while ECU is among the nation’s leaders at +1. If that trend continues, the Pirates may get the extra possessions they need to separate late.
East Carolina Preview
The Pirates enter Thursday with one of the most efficient passing attacks in the AAC. They rank 29th nationally in total offense (438.0 yards per game) and 14th in passing yards (320.3), with QB Katin Houser running the show. The senior QB has completed 68.4% of his passes for 1,258 yards and 5 TDs, while also contributing a rushing score against BYU last week.
Houser’s chemistry with sophomore receiver Yannick Smith has been electric. Smith has posted 4+ catches in every game this season and exploded for 146 yards on nine receptions last week against BYU. That production comes on the heels of a 2-TD performance against Coastal Carolina in Week 3.
The challenge for ECU has been balance. The Pirates average just 117.7 rushing yards per game (95th nationally), forcing Houser to carry a heavy load through the air. If RB London Montgomery (151 yards, 2 TDs) can’t spark the ground game, ECU risks becoming one-dimensional.
The bad news comes if the game script flips in favor of Army early on.
Defensively, ECU has been much stronger against the run (114.7 yards allowed per game, 34th nationally) than the pass (245.3 passing yards allowed, 92nd). That plays into their favor against Army’s option-based rushing attack, though defending the triple option is always a fascinating test.
Army vs. East Carolina Picks for PrizePicks Today
This Army vs. ECU matchup brings enticing player picks on the PrizePicks CFB board for Thursday, especially when you account for the contrasting styles of both teams. Here are three PrizePicks projections worth targeting:
Army QB Dewayne Coleman Projection: 0.5 Rushing TDs
Coleman is the centerpiece of the Black Knights’ triple-option, accounting for 447 total yards and four TDs in two games. He’s topped 100 rushing yards in back-to-back contests, including 117 yards and a score against North Texas in Week 4.
ECU’s run defense has been stout in standard looks, but they haven’t faced an option-heavy attack like Army’s, which forces defenses into hesitation and misreads near the goal line.
Given Coleman’s red-zone usage — he has a rushing TD in two straight games — look for him to keep the hot streak alive.
ECU QB Katin Houser Projection: 277.5 Passing Yards
Houser has been the engine of ECU’s offense, averaging 303.5 passing yards in their two wins this season and already recording 285+ passing yards through the air in each appearance.
He’s completing 68.4% of his passes, which ranks inside the AAC’s top five, and his chemistry with WR Yannick Smith has fueled much of that success.
Army’s secondary sits middle-of-the-pack at 55th nationally in passing yards allowed per game, but they’ve yet to see a tempo-driven, air-raid style attack like ECU’s. Houser could have extra possessions to comfortably threaten this number.
ECU RB London Montgomery Projection: 34.5 Rushing Yards
Montgomery has been quiet in the Pirates’ offense, but he’s still chipped in 151 rushing yards and 2 TDs on limited volume across four games. He’s averaging 4.2 yards per carry, and Army’s defense ranks 67th nationally against the run, allowing 151.5 yards per game.
That weakness opens the door for ECU to finally find balance on the ground, keeping Houser from shouldering the entire load.
Even with a modest workload, Montgomery could be ready for another strong outing.
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This game boils down to whether ECU can force Army out of its comfort zone. The Pirates’ passing attack is potent enough to jump out to an early lead, which would neutralize the Black Knights’ slow, run-heavy approach.
But if Army controls the clock and keeps Houser on the sideline, the pressure shifts to ECU’s defense to get stops.
Given ECU’s advantage in turnovers, home-field edge, and the Houser-to-Smith connection, the Pirates look better positioned to make plays in key moments. Army will have success on the ground, but ECU’s ability to generate explosive passing plays could be the difference.
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