A chilly start to the day in El Paso, TX could soon be warmed up by the fireworks provided by Arizona State and Duke in the Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl. The 2:00 p.m. ET kickoff on CBS brings the Big 12 and ACC together for a bowl clash.
Fresh off an 8-4 campaign, head coach Kenny Dillingham has re-upped with the Sun Devils and is looking to end his year on a high note. Manny Diaz and Duke, meanwhile, seek their second nine-win season in a row.
Here, we’ll break down an Arizona State vs. Duke prediction and Sun Bowl picks for Wednesday. Make your picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right.
Arizona State vs. Duke Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Wednesday’s Sun Bowl marks just the second time ASU and Duke will face each other. Coincidentally, that lone prior meeting happened in 2014 at the Sun Bowl, with the Sun Devils outlasting the Blue Devils 36-31.
Things will look different for both sides on Wednesday. For Arizona State, WR Jordyn Dyson and RB Raleek Brown have opted out. QB Sam Leavitt is also in the transfer portal. On Duke’s side, some opt-outs include RT Brian Parker II and CB Chandler Rivers.
Arizona State vs. Duke Over/Under, Spread
The Sun Devils enter the Sun Bowl as 3.5-point underdogs, returning a 2.22x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Blue Devils are favorites with a 1.58x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils -3.5
- Over/Under: 46.5
- Game Winner Payout: Sun Devils 2.22x | Blue Devils 1.58x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Arizona State vs. Duke Prediction on Spread
Here are some stats to know to get you prepared for Arizona State vs. Duke.
- Neither program is far apart when considering against-the-spread records. Duke is 6-6-1 ATS this year, with Arizona State being 5-6-1.
- Offensively, ASU thrives on ball control by ranking 14th in time of possession (53.82%) and being 30th in rushes per game (39.9).
- The Sun Devils’ defense is a top-50 unit in scoring (23.4 PPG, 46th) and yardage (343.4 YPG, 38th).
- Duke’s offense is all about the pass, sitting 39th in yards per throw (7.8) while being an ugly 95th in rushing yards per game (130.7).
- The Blue Devils struggle immensely on defense, sitting 129th with an average of 0.13 EPA per play yielded, per Game on Paper.
Arizona State vs. Duke Sun Bowl Picks for PrizePicks
Below are prime Arizona State vs. Duke Sun Bowl picks to consider. PrizePicks player projections include QB Darian Mensah and K Todd Pelino and Jesus Gomez.
Arizona State K Jesus Gomez vs. Duke Projection: 2.5 PAT Made
- Gomez has converted on 96.1% of his extra-point tries in his collegiate career.
- The Eastern Michigan transfer is a perfect 29-for-29 on such attempts in his debut campaign with Arizona State.
- In five separate games this year, Gomez made at least three PATs for the Sun Devils.
- Duke’s defense being 124th in passing success rate and 129th in EPA per pass could set ASU up for scoring opportunities.
Duke QB Darian Mensah vs. Arizona State Projection: 241.5 Pass Yards
- Mensah leads the ACC in passing yards (3,646), TDs (30), and adjusted yards per attempt (8.96) this year.
- The former Tulane man averaged 258.3 passing yards over his last seven games, with Duke going 4-3 in that span.
- Per Game on Paper, Mensah accumulated the 10th most EPA among all passers with 102.67.
- Arizona State’s pass defense may be 48th in EPA, but it’s 115th in passes faced per game. Mensah might test that.
Duke K Todd Pelino vs. Arizona State Projection: 6.5 Kicking Points
- Pelino has made a whopping 98.6% of his PATs and 77.5% of his field goals in four years with Duke.
- The experienced placekicker is one of 12 FBS players to have 50+ point-after tries and convert on all of them in 2025, per Pro Football Focus.
- ASU’s defense ranks 132nd in average opponent starting field position (own 31-yard line), according to Game on Paper.
- Pelino went over 6.5 kicking points in nine games this year, including the ACC Championship Game against Virginia.
Make Arizona State vs. Duke Picks on PrizePicks
As bowl season and the College Football Playoff roll on, Arizona State vs. Duke Sun Bowl picks are far from the only ways to get in on the action.
You can make your picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 30 states.
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