The US Open wraps up with the men’s final on Sunday, and it could be a good one between Alexander Zverev and Ben Shelton.
Shelton is into his first Grand Slam final and is looking to become the first American man to win a major since Andy Roddick in 2003.
On the other hand, this is much more familiar territory for Zverev, who’s playing in his third straight major final in 2026 and sixth overall. The German finally got over the hump by winning his first Grand Slam title at this year’s French Open and is now just one win away from snagging his second.
Can Shelton end the 23-year major-title drought for the American men, or will Zverev deny him?
Below, we’ll break down our Alexander Zverev vs. Ben Shelton prediction, including recent form, match analysis, and a PrizePicks pick. The match is slated to start at approximately 2:00 p.m. ET on ABC.
Make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks for Sunday’s match now!
{{tennis_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Alexander Zverev vs. Ben Shelton Prediction, Favorite for the US Open Men’s Final
Below are the payouts for who will win Sunday’s Zverev vs. Shelton match, via PrizePicks.
Tennis on PrizePicks got its biggest upgrade yet just in time for the US Open. Users can now combine a player to win outright with Player Picks, including aces, total games won, and more! Click here for more information.
On PrizePicks Team Picks, a 2x payout represents a return of $200 on a $100 entry (or $20 on $10). A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.
Payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. Tennis winner markets are available in 36 states.
Alexander Zverev vs. Ben Shelton Prediction for US Open – Sunday, September 13
Match Winner Payouts: Zverev 1.66x | Shelton 2.12x
Tournament Round: Men’s Final
2026 Record Entering the US Open: Zverev 46-13 | Shelton 33-13
Head-to-Head Record: Zverev leads 5-0
Scheduled Time: 2:00 p.m. ET
How to Watch: ABC
On Friday night, Ben Shelton outdueled fellow American Frances Tiafoe 4-6, 6-3, 6-3, 7-5, punching his ticket to his first-ever major final. The 23-year-old had his stellar serve dialed in, racking up 20 aces against Tiafoe.
Shelton has now won 12 of his last 13 matches, highlighted by his thrilling five-set victory over defending champion Carlos Alcaraz in the quarterfinals.
Meanwhile, after Alexander Zverev opened the tournament with back-to-back five-setters, he's since found his game, winning his last four matches in straight sets. That included a workmanlike victory over Karen Khachanov in the semifinals, edging out the Russian 6-3, 7-6(7), 7-6(6).
While Zverev made little noise in his tune-up event ahead of the US Open, he’s been a consistent force in Grand Slams this year, reaching the semifinals in Australia before making three straight finals, including his French Open triumph.
That should give him even more confidence against Shelton, a player he’s historically dominated.
The American has lost all five meetings against Zverev, winning just one of the 11 sets they’ve played.
This also coincides with Zverev having an absurd record against left-handed players. He’s won 44 of his last 45 matches against lefties dating back to 2023.
Further, Shelton has often struggled to hold his own against the very best players in general. His win over Alcaraz was just the fifth in his career against a top-five opponent, putting him at a 5-21 record in such matches.
According to Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings, Zverev wins this 63.8% of the time. However, the German’s track record against Shelton suggests he could have an even greater edge, and Shelton might need to play lights out to win this matchup.
Make your Zverev vs. Shelton US Open prediction on PrizePicks now!
{{tennis_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Alexander Zverev vs. Ben Shelton for the US Open on Sunday
Zverev vs. Shelton Pick – 42.5 Total Games
Zverev's last four US Open matches have reached 29, 29, 27, and 35 total games.
The last four matches between Zverev and Shelton came in 2025, and the American lost all four in straight sets, two of which came on hard courts.
Zverev is 8-0 against southpaws in 2026. That includes beating world No. 28 Alejandro Tabilo 6-2, 7-6(2), 6-2 last week in the third round.
Both players perform well on serve, but Zverev is the better returner. This season on hard courts, the German has produced an 18.9% break rate compared to 17.5% for Shelton.
Per Tennis Data Innovations, Zverev's shot quality on returns, forehands, and backhands rates much higher than Shelton's over the past 52 weeks.
Pick Zverev to win + total games on PrizePicks for higher payouts!
Make Your US Open Predictions Today on PrizePicks
It all comes down to Alexander Zverev vs. Ben Shelton for the US Open men's championship. Who will lift the trophy on Sunday?
Don’t wait until Sunday’s match starts — make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks now.
{{trophy_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats like games won or aces, or make match winner predictions with PrizePicks, available in 36 states!
Stay locked in on Playbook for daily US Open predictions, tennis picks, and PrizePicks analysis throughout the tournament.
Team Picks and Culture Picks are event contracts offered by Performance Predictions II, LLC d/b/a PrizePicks Predict, a CFTC-registered FCM and NFA Member. All event contract customers must be U.S. residents and 18+. Some event contracts may not be available in every state.Event contract trading carries significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. No guarantee against loss is offered. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.Void where prohibited by law. Restrictions apply. For full terms of service see prizepicks.com/predict-regulatory. Team and Culture Pick Early Payouts subject to market liquidity. The content provided is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, or a recommendation to trade any commodity interest.
