Alex de Minaur vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas Prediction, Pick for ATP Washington – Tuesday, July 28

Alex de Minaur is the defending champion at ATP Washington, but he immediately gets a tricky first-round test against Stefanos Tsitsipas to open his title defense.

There’s a wide gap in the rankings between sixth-ranked De Minaur and Tsitsipas at No. 51, which would normally suggest a sizable advantage for the Australian. There’s just one problem: Tsitsipas is 12-1 against him.

Can De Minaur turn the tables in this lopsided rivalry today? Or will Tsitsipas continue to be a thorn in his side?  

Below, we’ll break down our Alex de Minaur vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas prediction, including recent form, match analysis, and a PrizePicks pick. The match is slated to start at 6:00 p.m. ET on Tennis Channel.

Make your ATP Washington predictions on PrizePicks for Tuesday’s match now!

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Alex de Minaur vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas Prediction, Favorite for ATP Washington First Round

Below are the payouts for who will win Tuesday’s De Minaur vs. Tsitsipas match at ATP Washington, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Alex de Minaur: 1.72x to win
Stefanos Tsitsipas: 2.08x to win

On PrizePicks Team Picks, a 2x payout represents a return of $200 on a $100 entry (or $20 on $10). A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.

Payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. Tennis winner markets are available in 36 states.

Alex de Minaur vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Washington Prediction – Tuesday, July 28

Match Winner Payouts: De Minaur 1.72x | Tsitsipas 2.08x
Tournament Round: First Round
2026 Record Entering Washington: De Minaur 27-14 | Tsitsipas 22-15
Head-to-Head Record: Tsitsipas Leads 12-1
Scheduled Time: 6:00 p.m. ET
How to Watch: Tennis Channel

Alex de Minaur has been firmly entrenched inside the top 10 this season, and he briefly cracked the top 5 for the first time earlier this month. However, due to his 1-12 head-to-head record against Stefanos Tsitsipas, De Minaur is only a slight favorite on Tuesday.

Tsitsipas used to be a mainstay inside the top 5, but injuries and a drop in form over the past few seasons have caused his ranking to plummet. He's struggled to string together consistent results throughout the 2026 campaign, even slipping outside the top 80 for stretches.

However, the Greek may have finally found a spark earlier this month, putting together a title run in Gstaad to claim his first trophy since winning Dubai in February 2025. He’s now on the verge of cracking the top 50 for the first time since early April.

While this is a great sign for Tsitsipas, that championship came on clay — historically his best surface — and it remains to be seen whether he can carry that momentum into the North American hard-court swing.

If De Minaur is to flip the script against Tsitsipas, though, this is the surface for him to do so. On hard courts, the Australian is 33-16 over the last 52 weeks, whereas the Greek is 14-12. Per Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings, De Minaur ranks eighth on hard courts compared to 28th for Tsitsipas.  

Still, even amidst a mediocre 2026 season, Tsitsipas defeated De Minaur earlier this season on hard courts, winning 6-3, 7-6(3) in Miami.

Despite the edge De Minaur ought to have as the higher-ranked player competing on his best surface, there’s a mental hurdle that could be difficult to overcome against a player who’s had his number and enters with renewed confidence.

Make your De Minaur vs. Tsitsipas pick for ATP Washington on PrizePicks now!

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Alex de Minaur vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas Pick for ATP Washington on Tuesday

Alex De Minaur Pick — 17 Fantasy Score

Note: In PrizePicks tennis fantasy scoring, players earn 10 points to start (match played), games won/lost are +1/-1, sets won/lost at +3/-3, aces are 0.5, while double faults count for -0.5.

Out of Tsitsipas’ 12 victories over De Minaur, nine have been in straight sets. The Greek is 9-1 against the Australian on hard courts specifically (5-1 on outdoor hard courts).

Tsitsipas is actually 3-1 versus top-20 opponents on hard courts this season, which includes his straight-sets win over De Minaur in Miami.

De Minaur’s lone victory in this head-to-head came in three sets at 2024 Acapulco (1-6, 6-3, 6-3). He scored 14.5 fantasy points in that matchup.

The Australian is unlikely to generate extra fantasy points via his serve, as he owns a 6.3% ace rate on hard courts this season. The ATP Tour average among the top 50 players is 10.7%.  

Make Your Tennis Picks Today on PrizePicks

This is arguably the most intriguing match of the day at ATP Washington between two opponents who are very familiar with one another. Will Stefanos Tsitsipas continue to dominate this head-to-head, or can De Minaur take care of business as the defending Washington champ?  

Don’t wait until Tuesday’s matches start — make your Washington predictions on PrizePicks now.

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