Yankees vs. Twins Prediction, MLB Picks for Wednesday, September 16

Yankees vs. Twins is set for first pitch at 1:40 p.m. ET on Wednesday, September 16, with the Yankees favored and returning a 1.61x payout if they win, via PrizePicks.

The Yankees will go for the sweep with SP Carlos Rodon (6-3. 2.94 ERA) on the mound. The Twins counter with SP Zebby Matthews (9-10, 4.98 ERA), who's given up 9 runs over this last two starts.

Below, we’ll break down our Yankees vs. Twins prediction and picks for Wednesday, including game winner, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

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Yankees vs. Twins Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Wednesday, September 16

These are two contrasting teams when it comes to their pitching staffs. The Yankees’ 3.70 xERA is fourth in baseball, while their 24.3% strikeout rate is fifth, per FanGraphs. The Twins rank 22nd in xERA (4.31) and 16th in strikeout rate (21.8%).

Opposing hitters have been squaring up the Twins, posting a 34.4% hard-hit rate against them. The Yankees have only allowed a 32.1% hard-hit rate, which is the lowest mark in baseball.

With New York inducing a lot of weak contact, it's only permitted 1.0 HR/9. Even an 8.1% walk rate allowed is seventh best in the category.

Yankees vs. Twins Winner Payout, Over/Under – Wednesday, September 16

The Yankees enter Wednesday’s game as a road favorite against the Twins returning a 1.61x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Yankees vs. Twins game on PrizePicks.

Make your Yankees vs. Twins prediction on spread or over/under on PrizePicks.

Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.

Yankees vs. Twins Prediction on Winner – 9/16/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Yankees vs. Twins prediction on the winner for Wednesday, September 16.

• The Yankees are 7-1 since OF Aaron Judge returned from the injured list. Over those eight games, they averaged 5.9 runs.
• The Twins are 3-9 over their last 12 outings. In eight of those matchups, they scored 3 or fewer runs.
• The Yankees have won 46 road games, which is the most in baseball. They're one of only eight teams that's won at least 40 road games.
• Minnesota has a -74 run differential, while New York is +137 in the category.
• The lefty Rodon being on the mound for the Yankees limits the Twins’ upside at the plate. They have a .675 OPS vs. left-handed pitchers, compared to a .740 OPS against righties.

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Yankees vs. Twins Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 9/16/26

Here are top Yankees vs. Twins picks to target on Wednesday, September 16. Today's MLB picks for PrizePicks include SP Carlos Rodon and 1B Luis Garcia Jr.

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Yankees SP Carlos Rodon vs. Twins: 5 Strikeouts

• This will be Rodon’s sixth start since being activated from the IL. His pitch count has increased in each outing, reaching 93 in his last game against the Mets. He lasted 6.1 innings in that appearance, posting 8 strikeouts.
• The veteran lefty has thrown at least 85 pitches in 12 of his 14 starts this year. In eight of them, he reached at least 6 strikeouts.
• The Twins have a 22.4% strikeout rate against lefties. They only strike out 20.5% of the time versus righties.
• SP Will Warren and SP Max Fried started the first two games of this series for the Yankees, and both finished with 6 punchouts.

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Yankees 1B Luis Garcia Jr. vs. Twins: 5.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• Garcia is having the best season of his career, recording a .368 wOBA and a .260 ISO. He's already up to 30 home runs after combining for 34 in the last two seasons.
• Even with his dramatic increase in power, the former Washington National only has a 17.1% strikeout rate.
• A contributing factor to Garcia’s stellar campaign has been his improved quality of contact. For his career, he has an 8.2% barrel rate and a 40.3% hard-hit rate. This year, those respective marks are 12.1% and 47.3%.
• Matthews has seen his strikeout rate decline from 24.9% last year to 19.8% this season, contributing to him giving up 1.7 HR/9.
• The Twins hurler has limited right-handed hitters to a .310 wOBA, but lefties have a .349 wOBA against him.

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The Yankees are in a favorable spot to complete a sweep of the Twins with Rodon on the mound Wednesday. He has the potential to pile up strikeouts against a Minnesota team that struggles versus lefties.

Another player on the Yankees who could thrive is Garcia, who has a great matchup against Matthews.

Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your Yankees vs. Twins picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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