Yankees vs. Royals Prediction, MLB Picks for Monday, May 25

The first pitch of the New York Yankees (31-22) vs. the Kansas City Royals (22-31) is set for 3:40 p.m. ET on Monday, May 25, with the Yankees returning a 1.72x payout to win, via PrizePicks.

Heading into this series, both teams need wins; the Yankees come in losing 10 of their last 14 games, and the Royals have lost 10 of their last 13. New York still has a strong record and holds a Wild Card spot in the American League, but Kansas City has the third-worst record in the AL.

Below, we'll break down our Yankees vs. Royals prediction and picks for Monday’s MLB matchup, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Yankees vs. Royals picks on PrizePicks for today's game.

{{mlb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Yankees vs. Royals Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Monday, May 25

For Monday's matchup, Yankees SP Will Warren (2.28 xFIP across 10 starts and 52.1 IP in 2026) will get the start. In his second year as a full-time starter, he’s having his best season, allowing 2 or fewer runs in 8 of 10 starts. 

Which version of the New York Yankees will we see? The same team that was so dominant in the first few weeks of the season, including being the first to 20 wins, all of a sudden looks awful. The Yankees are struggling against good teams, going an MLB-worst 1-9 against teams above .500. To be a championship team, you need to beat high-caliber opponents.

The Royals will counter with SP Michael Wacha (4.09 xFIP across 10 starts and 63.1 IP in 2026). The 14-year veteran is having one of the best starts to his career, with his first sub-3.00 ERA since his rookie season. It helps that he’s posting some of his best stats, including a career-best .233 opponents’ BABIP and 6.4 hits allowed per nine innings.

Since the Royals won the World Series in 2015, they have made just one playoff appearance. It could be another disappointing year as they sit fourth in the AL Central and nine games behind first place.

As great as Royals SS Bobby Witt Jr. has been, he lacks a quality supporting cast. Despite Witt ranking second with a .314 xBA, Kansas City’s .243 xBA sits 19th in MLB.

Data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.

Yankees vs. Royals Winner Payout, Over/Under – Monday, May 25

The Yankees enter Monday’s game as road favorites, returning a 1.61x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Yankees vs. Royals game on PrizePicks.

• Spread: Yankees -1.5 (2.12x payout)
• Over/Under: 8.5 (1.72x payout on Over)
• Game Winner Payout: Yankees 1.72x | Royals 2.04x

Make your Yankees vs. Royals prediction on the winner or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Yankees vs. Royals Prediction on Over/Under – 5/25/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Yankees vs. Royals prediction on the run total for Monday, May 25.

Lock in your Yankees vs. Royals prediction on PrizePicks before the first pitch.

• Some of the Royals' best hitters have historically struggled against Warren, including 1B Vinnie Pasquantino, who’s 1 for 5 across his career.
• On the other side, some of the Yankees' top bats have stumbled against Wacha, including OF Cody Bellinger, who is 3 for 12 with 6 strikeouts, while 1B Ben Rice is 1 for 6 in the split.
• Since May 10, New York is 18th with a .305 wOBA (.305) and a .269 BABIP.
• The Royals have been a below-average offense throughout the season, ranking 21st in xSLG (.386) and 24th in wRC+ (93).
• Both teams tend to play lower-scoring games. The Royals' 56.6% under rate is the fourth-highest rate in baseball, and the Yankees' 56.0% is the fifth-highest mark.

Yankees vs. Royals Player Picks, Stats for PrizePicks – 5/25/26

Here are the top Yankees vs. Royals picks to target on PrizePicks for Monday, May 25. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Bobby Witt Jr. and Aaron Judge.

Yankees OF Aaron Judge vs. Royals: 6.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• Judge has a brutal history against Wacha, going 4 for 26 with 13 strikeouts.
• The reigning MVP’s walk-off home run on Sunday is the lone highlight of a current slump, with only 3 hits in his last 27 at-bats (.111).
• The right fielder is prone to swinging and missing, with his 32.6% whiff rate ranking in the 12th percentile. Although it’s below average, Wacha may still hold the advantage, as his 24.1% whiff rate sits in the 40th percentile.
• Judge is not as productive away from the Bronx, as he has a .876 OPS compared to .964 at home.

Add Aaron Judge to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

{{mlb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Royals SS Bobby Witt Jr. vs. Yankees: 6.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• Witt Jr. is one of the top hitters in baseball, with his .314 xBA ranking in the 99th percentile and 93.5 average exit velo in the 96th percentile.
• With a 53.5% hard-hit rate, Witt Jr. regularly crushes the ball. Opposing batters do the same against Warren, whose 40.3% hard-hit rate allowed ranks in the 42nd percentile.
• Warren throws a four-seamer and a sinker on 67.2% of his pitches. Witt Jr. has been successful against both pitches this season, with a .376 wOBA against the four-seamer and a .375 wOBA against the sinker.
• It's difficult to keep the American League MVP contender off the bases, as he’s reached base in 47 of 52 games this season.

Add Bobby Witt Jr. to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Make Yankees vs. Royals Picks on PrizePicks

The Yankees and Royals open a three-game series with both teams struggling to win. Will Warren vs. Michael Wacha presents an excellent pitching matchup, as both pitchers are posting some of the best numbers of their careers. Who will help carry their team to a win on Memorial Day?

Don’t wait until the first pitch happens — make your Yankees vs. Royals picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.

Stay locked in on Playbook for daily MLB predictions, picks, and news every day all the way through the 2026 MLB season.