Yankees vs. Red Sox Prediction, MLB Picks for Thursday, June 25

The first pitch of the matchup between the New York Yankees (48-31) and the Boston Red Sox (32-46) is set for 7:10 p.m. ET on Thursday, June 25, with the Yankees favored and returning a 1.58x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks with a win.

One of sports' greatest rivalries is renewed as the Yankees and Red Sox clash at Fenway Park. The series doesn’t have the same feeling as in previous years, however, because of the direction each club is going.

New York sits with a lead in the American League East, while Boston is last in the division and has one of the worst records in baseball.

Below, we'll break down our Yankees vs. Red Sox prediction and picks for Thursday’s MLB matchup, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Yankees vs. Red Sox prediction on PrizePicks for tonight’s game.

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Yankees vs. Red Sox Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Thursday, June 25

The Yankees will start their young phenom SP Cam Schlittler (2.86 xFIP in 95 IP, 16 starts). If Schlittler were a superhero, which Yankee fans would argue he is, then the city of Boston and the Red Sox would be part of his origin story.

A native of Weymouth, MA, Schlittler grew up a Red Sox fan and remained in New England for college, attending Northeastern University. 

It was against the Red Sox in the Wild Card Series in which he had his breakout performance, going 8 scoreless innings and setting the Yankees rookie postseason record with 12 strikeouts. He’s continuing that momentum in 2026, leading the AL with 4.3 pitcher WAR, a 1.71 ERA, 6.3 hits allowed per nine, and a 246 adjusted ERA+. 

The Yankees are missing many key players, including DH Giancarlo Stanton, SP Max Fried, and three-time MVP Aaron Judge. Playing without all that talent could've sent their season into a tailspin, but their depth is among the best in the league.

New York's dominance is evident, as they lead the AL with a +113 run differential, while every other team has a combined run differential of -279. 

The Red Sox will counter with SP Connelly Early (4.34 xFIP in 81.2 IP, 15 starts). This is Boston's young arm they hope can be part of this rotation in the long term. He was stellar as a September call-up last year, sporting a 2.34 xERA and 36.7% strikeout rate in four starts.

He started 2026 in the rotation and has been exceptional with a 2.95 ERA in his first 11 starts, but June has been a tough month (1-3 with a 5.66 ERA).

It’s been a disastrous season for the Red Sox, with there being no clear direction for the franchise. They fired manager Alex Cora after starting the year 10-17 and might be in the market for a third one in a year — interim skipper Chad Tracy is just 22-29. 

The Red Sox might've just reached their low point by dropping two of three games against the worst team in the league, the Rockies. It’s also how they lost that makes it especially disappointing.

On Monday, the Red Sox held a 2-0 lead in the ninth inning but the Rockies won on a three-run walk-off triple. On Wednesday, Boston had a 6-3 lead heading into the seventh inning, but Colorado would score the final 5 runs to take the series.

Yankees vs. Red Sox Winner Payout, Over/Under – Thursday, June 25

The Yankees enter Thursday’s game as road favorites, returning a 1.58x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Yankees vs. Red Sox game on PrizePicks.

• Spread: New York Yankees -1.5 (1.96x payout)
• Over/Under: 7.5 (1.81x payout on Over)
• Game Winner Payout: Yankees 1.58x | Red Sox 2.32x

Play the Yankees vs. Red Sox spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Yankees vs. Red Sox Prediction on Winner – 6/25/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Yankees vs. Red Sox prediction on the winner for Thursday, June 25.

Lock in your Yankees vs. Red Sox prediction on PrizePicks now.

Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.

• The Yankees have won all three of Schlittler's starts against the Red Sox.
• The Red Sox have lost both games against the Yankees in which Early was the starting pitcher. New York has outscored Boston 8-0 in those games.
• Schlittler is exceptional at getting hitters to swing at pitches out of the strike zone with his 35.1% chase rate sitting in the 90th percentile. The Red Sox rank 25th in the league with a 32.3% chase rate.
• Early has a very poor 10.3% barrel rate, sitting in the 14th percentile. That’s great for the Yankees, whose 10.2% barrel rate leads all of baseball.
• The Yankees were dominant in their first series in Boston earlier this season, sweeping the Red Sox and outscoring them 12-3.
• One of those games at Fenway Park was pitched by Early, who went 5.1 innings, allowed 3 earned runs, and gave up 3 walks in a loss.

Yankees vs. Red Sox Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 6/25/26

Here are the top Yankees vs. Red Sox picks to target on PrizePicks for Thursday, June 25. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Anthony Volpe and Jarren Duran.

Yankees SS Anthony Volpe vs. Red Sox: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI

• In a small sample size, Volpe has 1 hit in 2 at-bats against Early.
• Volpe is one of the hottest hitters in baseball as of late. Since June 12, his .488 wOBA ranks ninth and his 60.9% hard-hit rate is 13th.
• Early is struggling this season, allowing a 41.4% hard-hit rate (31st percentile).
• Volpe has hit better against left-handed pitchers with a 126 wRC+ compared to a 117 wRC+ against right-handers.

Add Anthony Volpe to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Red Sox LF Jarren Duran vs. Yankees: 5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• Duran leads the team with 11 at-bats against Schlittler but has had little success with just 1 hit.
• It’s been a brutal season for Duran, as his .225 xBA, .275 wOBA, and 30.2% strikeout rate are career-worst marks.
• He’s gotten worse as the season progresses, as his .187 wOBA, 7 wRC+, and .200 BABIP in June are worse than any other month this campaign.
• The Red Sox left fielder frequently swings and misses, as his 35.5% whiff rate is only in the fourth percentile. Schlittler has an excellent 27.9% whiff rate, slotting into the 70th percentile.

Add Jarren Duran to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Make Yankees vs. Red Sox Picks on PrizePicks

The Yankees and Red Sox add another chapter to their long rivalry. This series opener features the future, as second-year pitchers Cam Sclittler and Connelly Early square off on the mound.

Don’t wait until the first pitch happens — make your Yankees vs. Red Sox picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.

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