The legendary Subway Series opens its first three-game series of the 2026 season, as the New York Yankees (27-17) take a short trip to Queens to battle the New York Mets (18-25) on Friday, May 15, at 7:15 p.m. ET, televised by Apple TV.
Across the Subway Series’ rich history, the Mets have controlled the rivalry with an 18-12 record in the 2020s. Will that success continue in Citi Field on Friday night?
Below, we'll break down our Yankees vs. Mets prediction and picks for Friday’s Subway Series matchup, including the winner payouts, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
Make your Yankees vs. Mets picks for the Subway Series on PrizePicks — now available in New York!
{{mlb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Yankees vs. Mets Prediction, Winner, Over/Under – Friday, May 15
Both NYC squads entered the 2026 season with lofty expectations, and so far, only the Yankees have answered the bell.
The Yankees are two games back from first place in the AL East, and PrizePicks Team Picks gives them the shortest payout to win the division (1.4x). Meanwhile, the Mets are last in the NL East, carrying the third-shortest payout to win the division (11.11x).
Make your MLB predictions for the 2026 season on PrizePicks Team Picks.
While it’s been a rough start, the Mets are finally showing promise with a 7-3 record over the last 10 games. Plus, they just swept the Tigers, capping that series with a 9-4 win on Thursday.
The Yankees are headed in the opposite direction with a 1-5 record over the last six games, losing back-to-back series. Will the pinstripes bounce back against their bitter rival?
For Game 1 of the Subway Series, Yankees SP Cam Schlittler (2.54 xFIP over 9 starts and 53.1 IP) and Mets SP Clay Holmes (3.74 xFIP over 8 starts and 48.1 IP) will battle on the mound.
Yankees vs. Mets Winner Payout, Over/Under – Friday, May 15
The Yankees enter Game 1 of the Subway Series as a road favorite against the Mets, returning a 1.58x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Yankees vs. Mets game on PrizePicks.
- Spread: New York Yankees -1.5 (2.08x)
- Over/Under: 6.5 (1.69x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Yankees 1.58x | Mets 2.27x
Play the Yankees vs. Mets winner or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money.
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Yankees vs. Mets Prediction on Over/Under for Subway Series – 5/15/26
Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Yankees vs. Mets prediction for the run total on Friday, May 15.
Lock in your Yankees vs. Mets prediction on PrizePicks before the first pitch of the Subway Series.
- FanGraphs credits the Yankees with 223 runs scored (third), a .338 wOBA (third), and a .433 SLG (second).
- Despite posting only 3.7 runs per contest on the season (28th), the Mets are heating up with 4.8 runs per game over the last 10 matchups.
- Furthermore, the Mets racked up 7.3 runs per contest in their series sweep over the Tigers this week.
- While Mets SP Clay Holmes carries an elite 1.86 ERA, his 3.74 xERA and 3.95 SIERA suggest negative regression may be ahead.
- The Yankees have the tools to make Holmes pay with a league-best 45.2% hard-hit rate, and he gives up a 43.5% hard-hit rate (28th percentile) — via Baseball Savant.
- On the flip side, the Mets launched 5 home runs on Thursday, and Yankees SP Cam Schlittler has permitted a 40.3% hard-hit rate (45th percentile).
Yankees vs. Mets Player Picks, Stats for PrizePicks – 5/15/26
Here are the top Yankees vs. Mets picks to target on PrizePicks for Friday, May 15. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Cam Schlittler and Aaron Judge.
Yankees SP Cam Schlittler vs. Mets: 17.5 Pitcher Outs
- Backed by a 2.69 SIERA that smashes the 3.98 league average, Cam Schlittler’s enjoyed plenty of deep starts thus far.
- In fact, he’s finished at least the sixth inning in five of nine starts.
- That rate’s jumped over his last five starts, finishing the sixth inning in four appearances with an absurd 0.57 ERA during the split.
- According to Baseball Savant, the right-handed hurler has an elite 37.3% chase rate (94th percentile), and the Mets carry a 33.7% chase rate (10th-highest).
- If Schlittler’s chase rate success continues, this could boost the Mets’ current 20.8% strikeout rate (seventh-lowest).
- Striking out batters and staying ahead of pitch counts typically extends starts.
- Furthermore, Schlittler’s most-used pitches are a four-seam fastball (43.6%) and cutter (27.4%), and the Mets rank 28th and 26th in runs above average against the pitches.
Add Cam Schlittler to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
{{mlb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Yankees OF Aaron Judge vs. Mets: 6.5 Hitter Fantasy Score
- As mentioned, Mets SP Clay Holmes could be in trouble against sluggers, allowing a 43.5% hard-hit rate (28th percentile) and 89.4 average exit velocity (42nd percentile).
- It doesn’t get more dangerous than Aaron Judge, proven by his .639 xSLG (100th percentile), 24.5% barrel rate (99th percentile), and 54.9% hard-hit rate (97th percentile).
- Judge has totaled an 8.3 hitter fantasy score per game over his last four appearances.
- The three-time MVP continues to strike out often with a 28.4% K rate (18th percentile), but Holmes holds a low 19.3% K% (32nd percentile).
- Holmes’ sinker leads the way with a 50.6% usage rate, and Judge rakes to the tune of .435 against the pitch this season and .367 across his career.
Add Aaron Judge to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Make Yankees vs. Mets Picks on PrizePicks for the Subway Series
Who will earn bragging rights in this weekend’s Subway Series? The Yankees may have the pitching advantage in Game 1, but the Mets have found their footing with a recent increase in run production.
Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your Yankees vs. Mets picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
Stay locked in on Playbook for daily MLB predictions, picks, and news every day all the way through the 2026 MLB season.
