The 2026 MLB season officially gets underway when the San Francisco Giants host the New York Yankees on Opening Night on Wednesday, March 25, live on Netflix.
The two teams competed in just one three-game series in 2025, with the Giants taking two of the three contests in the Bronx. Giants' Logan Webb (career-best 2.78 xFIP in 2025) and Yankees' Max Fried (3.25x road xFIP) is the starting pitching matchup.
First pitch for Wednesday’s Opening Night Yankees vs. Giants showdown is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET on Netflix, with the Yankees listed as short favorites — a 1.72x payout on PrizePicks if they win — and the total at a lowly 6.5 runs, with a 1.66x payout on Yes.
Below, we’ll break down our Yankees vs. Giants prediction and picks for tonight's game, plus give you a special PrizePicks MLB promo for Logan Webb. Make your MLB picks on PrizePicks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
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Yankees vs. Giants Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Wednesday, March 25
After falling to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 2024 World Series, the New York Yankees didn’t enjoy quite the same level of success in 2025. The Yankees finished in second place in the AL East at 94-68, behind the Toronto Blue Jays, and were eliminated by the Blue Jays in the ALDS in four games.
New York is running it back with a very similar roster after re-signing power-hitting OF Cody Bellinger. However, SP Gerrit Cole will likely return around June from Tommy John surgery, as he's already pitched in spring training stints, and could give a huge boost to the team’s starting rotation.
The Giants finished in third place in the NL West with an 81-81 record and missed the MLB Playoffs for the fourth consecutive season in 2025. San Francisco fired manager Bob Melvin at the conclusion of the campaign and hired Tony Vitello from the University of Tennessee as the franchise’s next manager.
San Francisco wasn’t overly aggressive in the offseason, as the team didn’t pursue any big-name starting pitchers. Instead, the Giants signed veterans like Adrian Houser and Tyler Mahle to low-cost contracts.
Additionally, the Giants did add a strong contact bat in Luis Arraez (104 wRC+, 3.1% K%), who will bat leadoff in his debut tonight. It’ll be interesting to see if Vitello’s influence is enough to get the Giants back to playing meaningful October baseball in 2026.
Yankees vs. Giants Spread, Over/Under
The Yankees are road favorites tonight, returning a 1.75x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Giants are home underdogs and return a 2.04x payout if they win outright, per PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: New York Yankees -1.5 (2.43x payout)
- Over/Under: 6.5 Runs (1.66x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Yankees 1.75x | Giants 2.04x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
YRFI or NRFI? Find our Yankees vs. Giants Picks Tonight HERE
Yankees vs. Giants Injury Report
Let’s dive into the full Yankees vs. Giants injury report for Opening Night, via MLB.com.
New York Yankees Injury Report
- SP Gerrit Cole (elbow): OUT
- SP Carlos Rodon (elbow): OUT
- SS Anthony Volpe (shoulder): OUT
- SP Clarke Schmidt (Tommy John surgery): 60-day IL
San Francisco Giants Injury Report
- CF Harrison Bader (hamstring): Day-to-day
- RP Hayden Birdsong (Tommy John surgery): 60-day IL
- RP Joel Peguero (hamstring): OUT
- RP Sam Hentges (shoulder/knee): OUT
- RP Jason Foley (shoulder): 60-day IL
- RP Randy Rodriguez (elbow): 60-day IL
Yankees vs. Giants Prediction to Win – Wednesday March 25
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your Yankees vs. Giants prediction on the 1.5-run spread for Opening Night, on PrizePicks.
- The Yankees produced a 30-40 against the spread (ATS)record as a road favorite in 2025, producing a 42.9% cover rate.
- The Giants were 12-7 against the run line as a home underdog during the 2025 season.
- New York led the majors in home runs (274), with the Los Angeles Dodgers being the next closest team with 244 long balls.
- Although the Yankees are known for their short right field porch and a positive hitting environment at Yankee Stadium, the New York's offense had the best wRC+ (120) in road games in 2025 (120), per FanGraphs.
- Yankees SP Max Fried has a 4-1 career record to go along with a 2.68 ERA and 45 strikeouts in eight career starts vs. the Giants. Fried has surrendered two or fewer runs in six of those starts.
- The Giants ranked 25th in team batting average (.235) and ranked 17th in runs per game (4.35) in 2025.
- New York has won five of the last seven meetings by at least two runs, dating back to the 2023 season.
- Fried is a left-handed pitcher, who Giants have struggled with over the last season; San Francisco ranked 28th in wRC+ vs left-handed pitchers (78) and had the sixth-worst K-rate vs. lefties last year, per FanGraphs.
- The arrival of Arraez's low K-rate may help the strikeouts, but even his wRC+ drops from 113 vs. RHP to 83 vs. lefties.
- Fried averaged over six innings pitched per start last season, so the Giants may face him for the bulk of the game.
Yankees vs. Giants Picks for PrizePicks on MLB Opening Night
Here are two of the top Yankees vs. Giants picks to consider for MLB Opening Night on NEtflix. Today's PrizePicks MLB player picks feature a Logan Webb promo, Yankees RF Aaron Judge, and Giants 2B Luis Arraez.
MLB PrizePicks Promo Today: Giants SP Logan Webb – 0.5 Strikeouts
With today's special PrizePicks promo, Logan Webb only needs one strikeout vs. the Yankees in today's Opening Night game to get a W in your Lineup ad start the MLB season right.
PrizePicks is offering a special MLB Max Discount promo on Giants ace Logan Webb strikeouts tonight — lowering his projection to 0.5 strikeouts (discounted from 6). It's the closest you can get to free on MLB Opening Night.
Click here to get Logan Webb at 0.5 Strikeouts — live now on the Player Picks MLB board!
Webb averaged 1.08 strikeouts per inning last season. Meanwhile, the Yankees struck out at the sixth-highest rate in MLB, 23.5%.
New to PrizePicks? Sign up here with promo code PLAYBOOK to get $50 instantly after your first $5 Lineup — and add the Logan Webb promo to your Lineup before first pitch on Wednesday night.
Yankees RF Aaron Judge vs. Giants Projection: 1.5 Total Bases
- Judge is 3-for-7 with two home runs and three RBIs in nine career at-bats against Giants SP Logan Webb.
- Judge averaged 2.45 total bases per game across 152 games during the 2025 season.
- According to Baseball Savant, Judge tallied a 58.2% hard-hit percentage in 2025, ranking in the 99th percentile.
- Per Fangraphs, Judge swung at pitches inside the strike zone 67.0% of the time in 2025, the second-highest percentage of his career.
Giants 2B Luis Arraez vs. Yankees Projection: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
- Despite the lefty-lefty matchup, Arraez is 4-for-11 in 13 career at-bats against Yankees SP Max Fried.
- Arraez averaged 1.18 hits per game across 154 games as a member of the San Diego Padres during the 2025 season.
- According to Baseball Savant, Arraez registered a 42.6% squared-up percentage in 2025, ranking in the 100th percentile.
- According to Fangraphs, the veteran 2B recorded a 95.9% contact percentage in 2025.
- Arraez is riding the high of a Venezuela World Baseball Classic title over America, where he slashed .308/.367/.692, with two home runs vs. Israel.
Make Your Yankees vs. Giants Prediction on PrizePicks
The 2026 MLB season officially kicks off with the Yankees vs. Giants on MLB Opening Night on Wednesday. New York will be aiming to regain the top spot in the AL East this season, while San Francisco will be looking to return to the playoffs after missing the postseason in each of the last four campaigns.
You can make Yankees vs. Giants picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick MLB players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. And with Team Picks, you can make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
Stick around with the Playbook for continued MLB predictions, picks, and news throughout the 2026 season.
