White Sox vs. Guardians Prediction, MLB Picks for Monday, September 14

First pitch of the matchup between the Chicago White Sox (76-73) and the Cleveland Guardians (76-74) is set for 6:40 p.m. ET on Monday, September 14. The Guardians are favored and return a 1.61x payout to win, via PrizePicks.

This could be the most important series of the week, as it’s the only in-division matchup with playoff implications. The White Sox enter this three-game series with just a half-game lead over the Guardians in the American League Central with 16 games left.

Below, we'll break down our White Sox vs. Guardians prediction and picks for Monday’s MLB matchup, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your White Sox vs. Guardians prediction on PrizePicks.

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White Sox vs. Guardians Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Monday, September 14

The White Sox will start Davis Martin (4.13 xFIP in 135.0 IP, 26 starts) in this series opener. 

It’s been an inconsistent year for Martin as he tries to be a valuable part of the rotation in the final stretch of the regular season. On May 16, he ranked third in the league in ERA (1.61), fourth in WAR (2.1), and fifth in FIP (2.39). He then struggled, posting a 6.52 ERA and a 4.81 FIP over 15 starts.

That rough patch may have stemmed from a blister on his middle finger, which sent him to the IL in mid-August. Since coming back, he’s returned to form, allowing 1 earned run over 10.2 innings in 2 starts.

The White Sox have been one of the league’s best stories after entering 2026 with three straight 100-loss seasons. Unfortunately for this Cinderella story, it may have struck midnight.

Chicago is in its worst stretch of the season, having lost 11 of its last 14 games. The White Sox have held the division lead since July 22, but after this weekend, that lead could be gone.

You can’t blame the White Sox's recent struggles on a single factor, as both their hitting and pitching have been poor. Since August 30, they rank 27th in wOBA (.293) and 20th in xERA (4.26).

The Guardians will counter with SP Gavin Williams (2.78 xFIP in 169.0 IP, 29 starts). Like Davis, Williams had a strong start to the season but has since regressed. In his first 13 starts, he posted a 3.20 ERA. In his next 14, he owned a 4.84 ERA, and the Guardians went 6-8. 

He’s recently recaptured some of his old spark, allowing 3 earned runs over 13 innings.

The Guardians have capitalized on the White Sox’s struggles. On August 16, they were six games behind in the AL Central, but they're now within striking distance.

If the Guardians take over first place after this series, they are well positioned to hold it. Two of the Guardians’ final three series are against teams with losing records.

White Sox vs. Guardians Winner Payout, Over/Under – Monday, September 14

The Guardians enter Monday’s game as home favorites against the White Sox, returning a 1.61x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the White Sox vs. Guardians game on PrizePicks.

Play the White Sox vs. Guardians spread or over/under on PrizePicks.

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

White Sox vs. Guardians Prediction on Over/Under – 9/14/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our White Sox vs. Guardians prediction on the run total for Monday, September 14.

Lock in your White Sox vs. Guardians prediction on PrizePicks now.

Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.

• In each of Martin’s two starts against the Guardians, the run total has been 7 or more.
• In each of Williams’ three starts against the White Sox, there have been 7+ total runs scored.
• Williams is allowing an 11.6% barrel rate. This is where the White Sox excel, as their 8.4% barrel rate is eighth in the league.
• Martin struggles to generate swings and misses; his 23.5% whiff rate places him in the 38th percentile. The Guardians have one of the sport's top whiff rates, ranking sixth (23.6%).
• There have been 7+ total runs scored in eight of the 10 games between the White Sox and the Guardians this season.

White Sox vs. Guardians Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 9/14/26

Here are the top White Sox vs. Guardians picks to target on Monday, September 14. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Miguel Vargas and Steven Kwan.

White Sox 3B Miguel Vargas vs. Guardians: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI

• Vargas is having his best season, holding career highs in xSLG (.506), xwOBA (.382), and barrel rate (13.6%).
• The White Sox third baseman has a strong history against Williams, going 4-for-11 with 1 home run and 4 RBIs.
• He’s been great at Progressive Field this season, posting a 1.166 OPS and .333 BABIP over four games.
• His 13.6% barrel rate ranks in the 89th percentile. That could spell some trouble against Williams and his third-percentile mark.

Add Miguel Vargas to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Guardians OF Steven Kwan vs. White Sox: 6.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• Kwan has been excellent against Martin, going 6-for-12 in his career.
• After a tough start to the season, Kwan's turned it around in the second half. Since July 12, he ranks fifth in xBA (.301), second in BABIP (.393), and sixth in WAR (2.3).
• It’s almost impossible to get Kwan to swing and miss; his 8.4% whiff rate is in the 100th percentile. This could be a disadvantage for Martin, who's inducing a 23.5% whiff rate (38th percentile).
• Davis throws his four-seamer on 30% of his pitches to left-handed hitters, which is more than any other offering. Kwan excels against the four-seamer, owning a .363 wOBA and a 4.8% whiff rate.

Add Steve Kwan to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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This series may have the highest stakes, potentially with the AL Central title on the line. With the Guardians on the White Sox's heels, it doesn't get much more important than this in the regular season.

Don’t wait until first pitch — make your White Sox vs. Guardians picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With PrizePicks, you can make predictions on MLB game winners, spreads, and over/unders.

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