Vikings vs. Buccaneers Prediction, Spread, NFL Picks Today – Sunday, September 27

An intriguing NFC matchup is set at Raymond James Stadium for Week 3, as the Minnesota Vikings travel to Tampa Bay to take on the Buccaneers at 4:05 p.m. ET on FOX. According to PrizePicks, the Vikings are 1.5-point road favorites on the spread.

The two teams enter Sunday's matchup heading in entirely different directions. Minnesota is 2-0, grinding out a 9-3 win over the Chicago Bears last week. Tampa Bay is 0-2 after blowing a 10-point lead and falling 23-19 to the Cleveland Browns in Week 2.

Below, we'll break down our Vikings vs. Buccaneers prediction and picks for Sunday's NFL Week 3 game, including the spread for PrizePicks.

Make your Vikings vs. Buccaneers picks on PrizePicks now!

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Vikings vs. Buccaneers Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Sunday, September 27

The Vikings enter Week 3 undefeated after battling through a classic terrible-weather game vs. the Bears. With that game’s conditions certainly playing a part, Minnesota is still just averaging just 260.0 total yards per game, ranking 31st in the NFL, while its 129.5 passing yards per game ranks 32nd.

As usual, the Vikings have compensated with an outstanding defense under DC Brian Flores, allowing only 12.5 points per game (fourth).

Minnesota's biggest development is the return of QB Kyler Murray. Murray suffered a concussion after only 5 pass attempts in the opener against Green Bay. He has since cleared the NFL's concussion protocol and is expected to make his return against Tampa Bay.

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, have moved the ball at times but have struggled to consistently finish drives. Tampa Bay enters at 0-2 despite averaging 312.0 total yards per game, while QB Baker Mayfield has completed 44 of 62 passes for 398 yards.

Mayfield was shockingly outplayed by QB Deshaun Watson in Week 2, completing 21 of 34 passes for 182 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT against Cleveland. Tampa Bay entered the red zone four times but produced only one touchdown, settling for four field goals in the 23-19 loss.

While still early, it seems this Buccaneers defense will be a pass funnel yet again, something they have seemingly been ever since DT Vita Vea put on a Bucs uniform. Tampa is allowing just 75.0 rushing yards per game (fourth-fewest), while giving up 234.0 passing yards per game (10th-most).

Vikings vs. Buccaneers Spread, Over/Under – Sunday, September 27

Minnesota enters Sunday's game as a 1.5-point road favorite against Tampa Bay via PrizePicks.

Here are the full payouts for Vikings vs. Buccaneers on PrizePicks.

Make your Vikings vs. Buccaneers prediction on the spread on PrizePicks.

PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Vikings vs. Buccaneers Prediction on Spread – 9/27/26

Here are the key stats and predictions behind our Vikings vs. Buccaneers prediction on the spread for Sunday.

• The Buccaneers were a league-worst 5-12-1 against the spread (ATS) last season. They are also 3-10 straight up over the last 13 games.
• This Tampa Bay secondary owns the 11th-worst EPA/pass allowed (0.10), per SumerSports.
• On offense, the Bucs are 28th in EPA/pass (-0.33) and ninth in EPA/rush (0.03).
• This could lead to a run-heavy game script that plays into the hands of this Vikings defense, ranked fifth in EPA/rush allowed (-0.26).
• Minnesota has been particularly dominant against inside runs, producing a 36.8% stuff rate on runs between the tackles (first).
• The Vikings have been excellent at avoiding self-inflicted damage. Minnesota won the turnover battle 2-0 against Chicago and is now 37-4 under HC Kevin O'Connell when finishing a game with an even or better turnover differential.
• Mayfield has already turned the ball over 4 times in just two games.
• Brian Flores is bringing an unprecedented amount of pressure. Minnesota has blitzed on an incredible 75.3% of opponent dropbacks through two games, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. That figure is more than 25.0% higher than the previous single-season high in the NGS era.

Lock in your Vikings vs. Buccaneers prediction on PrizePicks before Sunday's NFL game.

Vikings vs. Buccaneers Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks – 9/27/26

Here are the top Minnesota Vikings vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers picks to target on PrizePicks for Sunday, including Kyler Murray and Bucky Irving.

Vikings QB Kyler Murray vs. Buccaneers: 20.5 Rush Yards

• Murray has averaged 6.0 yards per carry over his NFL career, and today's matchup could be good for scrambling.
• He only played a handful of snaps in Week 1 before suffering his concussion, so his current 2026 rushing numbers don't provide a meaningful sample. He recorded 2 carries for 9 rushing yards in that abbreviated appearance.
• The bigger factor is how Tampa Bay's defense is likely to approach Minnesota's offense. The Bucs blitz at a 46.6% rate, second in the NFL, which can create escape lanes for a mobile quarterback when pressure gets home.
• Minnesota's offensive line has dealt with injuries, while RB Aaron Jones has handled a significant workload in the backfield. That could create additional opportunities for designed quarterback runs and scrambles rather than asking Murray to stand in the pocket on every dropback.
• Murray is athletic enough to clear this projection on one incredible scramble, but a 20.5-yard projection only requires roughly 4 to 5 successful Murray scrambles at his career efficiency.
• Just a reminder that unlike in college, where sacks count against a QB's rushing total, that is not the case in the NFL.

Add Kyler Murray to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Buccaneers RB Bucky Irving vs. Vikings: 57.5 Rush Yards

• The Vikings have allowed just 3.0 YPC and the fourth-fewest total rushing yards in the league so far.
• As mentioned, Minnesota has been particularly dominant between the tackles, producing a 36.8% stuff rate on inside runs — the best mark in the NFL and 8.2% better than the next-best defense.
• The Vikings have allowed a -0.26 EPA/rush this season, fifth-best in the NFL.
• Tampa Bay's offense could struggle to establish a consistent ground game if Minnesota's aggressive defense continues its league-leading 75.3% blitz rate, which may also force Baker Mayfield into quicker throws and limit traditional rushing opportunities.
• The Vikings defense could limit the length and quality of Tampa Bay drives. Minnesota’s defense is holding opponents to the third-lowest success percentage (37.23%) in the NFL.

Pick Bucky Irving + Buccaneers to win on PrizePicks.

Make Vikings vs. Buccaneers Picks on PrizePicks

Sunday's matchup features an undefeated Vikings team whose defense has carried the early-season load, and the Buccaneers are still searching for their first win.

Don't wait until kickoff — make your Vikings vs. Buccaneers picks on PrizePicks Team Picks. There is a wide variety of player stat projections on the NFL board, so you can make predictions on yards, touchdowns, and more.

With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available on PrizePicks.

Keep it here with the Playbook for continued NFL picks, predictions, futures, and more as we jump into Week 3 of the 2026 NFL season.