UTSA (4-4) travels to Tampa for a Thursday night AAC showdown against South Florida (6-2) at Raymond James Stadium tonight.
The Bulls have emerged as one of the nation’s most explosive offensive units behind QB Byrum Brown, but they're coming off a close loss to Memphis last week which killed any College Football Playoff hopes. Meanwhile, the Roadrunners and QB Owen McCown aim to build on last week’s decisive 48-26 win over Tulane to climb back to .500 in conference play.
Below, we’ll break down our UTSA vs. South Florida prediction and Thursday college football pick, also highlighting the top PrizePicks player picks to targets for this primetime AAC matchup set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
UTSA vs. South Florida Prediction, Preview: Thursday, Nov. 6
This Thursday AAC matchup features contrasting identities — UTSA’s methodical, balanced approach versus South Florida’s lightning-quick tempo (2nd fastest seconds per play) and dual-threat quarterback prowess with Brown.
Both teams remain in the thick of the AAC bowl picture, but the Roadrunners hold the edge in the series — collecting a 49-21 victory over the Bulls in 2023.
Here’s a closer look at our UTSA vs. USF prediction and matchup breakdown for Thursday night’s college football slate.
UTSA Preview vs. South Florida
UTSA enters Thursday looking to sustain momentum after a 48-26 statement win over Tulane, where QB Owen McCown delivered one of the most efficient performances of the FBS season — completing 31 -of-33 passes (93.9%) for 370 yards and 4 TDs.
McCown is posting a 67.5% completion rate, 17 TDs to 4 INTs, and a 0.18 EPA per dropback, per GameOnPaper — ranking 92nd nationally. His timing and pocket discipline have elevated an offense that ranks 52nd in total yardage (396.9 yards per game) and 48th in offensive success rate on passing downs (44.0%).
RB Robert Henry provides the identity on early downs. With 955 yards on 120 carries (8.0 yards per carry), the balance between Henry’s inside-zone consistency and McCown’s intermediate accuracy has made UTSA one of the more efficient teams in the AAC.
Defensively, however, the Roadrunners remain an enigma. They sit 95th nationally in total defense (409.4 yards per game) and 105th in scoring defense (31.7 points), struggling primarily through the air (243.4 yards, 91st nationally).
That said, UTSA ranks 30th in defensive success rate (39.4%) and 36th in rush defense success (38.2%), suggesting situational lapses rather than structural flaws.
Where the Roadrunners must tighten up is discipline and situational execution. They’re 130th nationally in penalty yards per game (73.1) — a trait that could often swing tight road games. Against a team as tempo-driven and turnover-efficient as South Florida, avoiding self-inflicted mistakes could be as vital as containing USF QB Byrum Brown.
South Florida Preview vs. UTSA
South Florida’s rise from AAC middle tier to legitimate contender has been fueled by an offense that blends tempo and physicality better than almost any team in the Group of Five. The Bulls rank No. 3 nationally in total offense (484.6 yards per game) and No. 9 in scoring (37.1 points per game), built around a dynamic run-pass balance that keeps defenses stressed horizontally and vertically.
Brown is the X-Factor — a dual-threat force who has produced 2,560 total yards (1,964 passing, 596 rushing) and 25 combined TDs through eight appearances. He ranks 67th nationally in EPA per dropback (0.24) and has played 91.4% of South Florida’s total offensive snaps this season, per PFF.
The run game is more than just Brown’s scrambles. RB Sam Franklin has quietly posted 7.1 yards per carry and ranks second in the AAC in missed tackles forced per rush, per PFF, giving this backfield legitimate punch on early downs. Through the air, Tennessee transfer Chas Nimrod has emerged as Brown’s go-to option — averaging 20.3 yards per catch.
Defensively, South Florida remains volatile. The Bulls rank 81st in total defense (397.6 yards allowed per game), with a glaring weakness against the pass (276.3 yards per game, 126th nationally). But they’re 30th in rushing defense (121.3 yards) and 36th in success rate allowed on the ground (38.2).
UTSA vs. South Florida Best Picks for Thursday NCAAF
Here are the PrizePicks player pick targets for Thursday’s huge AAC matchup between UTSA vs. South Florida.
UTSA QB Owen McCown Projection vs. USF: 239.5 Passing Yards
- QB Owen McCown has completed 67.3 percent of his passes and thrown for 1,680 yards with 17 TDs and 4 INTs.
- South Florida allows 276.3 passing yards per game (126th nationally), a favorable matchup for an efficient passer.
- McCown has recorded 230+ yards through the air in three of his past four games.
- UTSA’s offensive line has allowed fewer than two sacks per game in conference play, helping McCown stay clean in the pocket.
South Florida QB Byrum Brown Projection vs. UTSA : 260.5 Passing Yards
- QB Byrum Brown has topped 245+ passing yards in each of his last three appearances, including 269 against Memphis.
- Brown averages 8.0 yards per pass attempt and 5.0 yards per carry on the season.
- South Florida converts 50.4% of third downs (17th nationally), allowing Brown to potentially sustain drives and pile up volume.
- The Bulls also rank top-20 nationally in total offense, averaging 487 yards per game.
UTSA RB Robert Henry Jr. Projection: 83.5 Rushing Yards
- RB Robert Henry Jr. leads UTSA with 955 rushing yards on 120 carries (8.0 yards per carry) and 9 TDs..
- He has logged 12+ carries in every game this year, showing steady usage regardless of game script.
- South Florida allows just 113.6 rushing yards per game (27th nationally), presenting a tougher matchup.
- Henry is the third-leading rusher in FBS, averaging 8.0 yards per carry. He might give the offense a major boost Thursday night as UTSA continues to fight back in the AAC.
Make UTSA vs. South Florida Picks on PrizePicks
This Thursday AAC showdown could deliver plenty of fireworks, with both teams averaging over 34 points per game and featuring two of the league’s most productive QBs.
South Florida’s explosive offense and home-field advantage could make the difference, though UTSA’s balance and recent surge suggest a competitive matchup deep into the fourth quarter.
With PrizePicks and the Playbook, you can cash in on Thursday night’s AAC action by targeting players like Byrum Brown, Owen McCown, Robert Henry, and more CFB picks.
Just pick your college football players, predict More or Less on their stat projections, and win real money if you’re right.
