USA vs. Belgium Prediction, World Cup Picks, Lineups for Round of 16

Confirmed USA vs. Belgium Lineups for Round of 16

Belgium has benched notable starters Kevin De Bruyne and Jeremy Doku in the attack. Striker Romelu Lukaku also starts on the bench, in a shocking turn of events.

USA, with Balogun at striker, will run out the same XI as they did in the Round of 32 vs. Bosnia.

Find the full USA vs. Belgium Lineups and analysis here!

USA Starting XI vs. Belgium

Formation: 4-2-3-1

• Goalkeeper: Matthew Freese
• Defense: Antonee Robinson, Tim Ream, Chris Richards, Alexander Freeman
• Midfield: Malik Tillman, Tyler Adams, Weston McKennie
• Forwards: Christian Pulisic, Folarin Balogun, Sergino Dest

Belgium Starting XI vs. USA

Formation: 4-2-3-1

• Goalkeeper: Thibaut Courtois
• Defense: Timothy Castagne, Brandon Mechele, Nathan Ngoy, Maxim De Cuyper
• Midfield: Nicolas Raskin, Amadou Onana, Youri Tielemans
• Forwards: Leandro Trossard, Charles De Ketelaere, Dodi Lukébakio

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The Round of 16 concludes with two exciting sides at this year’s competition, each looking to end their World Cup quarterfinal droughts. The USA will hope to punch its ticket into the final eight for the first time since 2002 against a Belgian side aiming to build off its intense Round of 32 comeback and use that momentum to reach the quarterfinals for the first time since 2018.

This match has already made headlines prior to kickoff due to the latest news about Folarin Balogun’s availability. The USMNT’s leading scorer will be available for squad selection despite picking up a red card in the Round of 32. Reports have now come out that U.S. President Donald Trump was involved in a call attempting to have the USA striker’s suspension rescinded. 

What's the updated outlook as Monday night's match approaches? Below, we’ll break down our USA vs. Belgium prediction and picks for the Round of 16 clash, including the spread, total goals, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your USA vs. Belgium prediction and World Cup Round of 16 picks on PrizePicks now!

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USA vs. Belgium World Cup Round of 16 Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Monday, July 6

How to Watch USA vs. Belgium: FOX (English) / Telemundo (Spanish)

Kickoff Time: 8 p.m. ET

Venue: Lumen Field, Seattle

Round: Round of 16

Things were looking up for Belgium after completing a miraculous 3-2 comeback against Senegal last Wednesday. FIFA's ninth-ranked side was set to face World Cup co-hosts USA, a team they have had the better of in recent meetings. However, news of Balogun's reinstatement has shifted the mood in the USMNT's favor.

The Royal Belgian Football Association has released several statements in response to FIFA's decision to overturn the one-game ban and even filed an official appeal. The decision has altered the dynamic of tonight's match, with the USA now slight favorites to advance on PrizePicks Team Picks. The USMNT has been impressive, winning three of four matches, with their only defeat coming when the first-choice lineup was rested.

They now look to build on that form against a side that beat them in a pre-tournament friendly earlier this year. Given the context of Balogun's return, current form, and the squads involved, Belgium's 5-2 friendly win back in March should not be read too heavily into. That said, several players who will feature today, including Balogun, did struggle in that match against much of Belgium's expected starting lineup.

While Belgium has been inconsistent in front of goal at times, they've not been short of attempts. Sérgio García's side leads all remaining teams in total shots per game, averaging 23 attempts per contest across their first four matches. That aggressive approach could play right into the hands of the USA's pacy attack, which will look to press high and exploit space on the counter.

There may be an end-to-end contest between two sides loaded with quality, along with added tension given that a place in the World Cup quarterfinals is at stake.

USA vs. Belgium: Favorite to Advance, Spread, Total Goals – Monday, July 6

USA enters Monday’s game as the favorite, returning a 2.32x payout if they win outright in regulation via PrizePicks Team Picks. Meanwhile, Belgium will aim to channel its frustrations against a side that has failed to beat it since the 1930 World Cup.

Here are the full payouts for the USA vs. Belgium match on PrizePicks.

• To Advance Payout: USA – 2.32x | Tie – 3.22x | Belgium – 2.7x
• Spread: USA -1.5 (4.16x Payout) 
• Total Goals: 2.5 (Over – 1.63x)
• Both Teams to Score: Yes 1.49x | No 2.5x

‍Team Picks markets are settled after full-time (90 minutes + stoppage). Extra time and penalties are not included.

Payouts show potential returns on correct Team Picks predictions. A 2x payout returns $200 on a $100 entry. Lower multipliers reflect outcomes users are picking as more likely. Payouts are live as of writing and subject to change.

Make your USA vs. Belgium prediction on spread or goals on PrizePicks Team Picks — available in 35 states!

USA vs. Belgium Prediction on Total Goals for World Cup Round of 16

Here are the key stats and trends for USA vs. Belgium before making your World Cup 2026 predictions on PrizePicks.

• The USA and Belgium rank 10th and 11th, respectively, in goals scored, with over a third of Belgium's 9 goals coming in their last match alone.
• The USMNT has been the best side in the competition in one-on-one situations, leading the tournament with 12.2 successful dribbles per game — a key driver behind the 3 big chances per match they're averaging.
• Belgium ranks eighth among the remaining teams in average possession at nearly 58% per game. That ball-dominant style suits Sérgio García's attack-minded approach, with much of their offense built around crosses into the box.
• Both sides are outperforming their xG at this tournament. The USA has scored 10 goals from a combined xG of just 6.03 across four matches, while Belgium's nine goals sit just 0.71 above their expected output.
• The two teams have kept a combined 3 clean sheets across eight matches and both average over 2 goals scored and 1 conceded at this World Cup.

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USA vs. Belgium Lineups for World Cup Round of 16 – Monday, July 6

Here are the projected USA vs. Belgium lineups for today's World Cup Round of 16 match. Lineups are not official and are based on historical data.

USA Lineup vs. Belgium Today

Projected Formation: 4-2-3-1

• Goalkeeper: Matthew Freese
• Defense: Alexander Freeman, Tim Ream, Chris Richards, Antonee Robinson
• Midfield: Malik Tillman, Tyler Adams, Weston McKennie
• Forwards: Christian Pulisic, Sergino Dest, Folarin Balogun

Belgium Lineup vs. USA Today

Projected Formation: 4-2-3-1

• Goalkeeper: Thibaut Courtois
• Defense: Timothy Castagne, Arthur Theate, Brandon Mechele, Thomas Meunier
• Midfield: Youri Tielemans, Nicolas Raskin, Kevin de Bruyne
• Forwards: Jérémy Doku, Romelu Lukaku, Leandro Trossard

USA vs. Belgium Picks, Player Stats for World Cup Round of 16: 7/6/26

Here are the top USA vs. Belgium player picks to target on PrizePicks for Monday, July 6. Today’s World Cup 2026 picks are headlined by Folarin Balogun, Christian Pulisic, and Romelu Lukaku.

USA ST Folarin Balogun Pick vs. Belgium 

Folarin Balogun Projections via PrizePicks: 0.5 Goals (Demon), 3 Shots, 1.5 Attempted Dribbles

• Balogun has been one of the competition’s standout talents, now scoring 3 goals in three games played. The Monaco ST will look to make his reinsertion into the lineup worthwhile as he hopes to add another World Cup knockout round goal to his collection.
• The 25-year-old leads the USMNT with nearly 4 total shots per game. Balogun accounts for just under 30% of the USA’s shots per game and may continue this trend against a squad that faced 19 shots in its last match.
• Balogun has helped the USA average the most successful dribbles per game and attempts 2 per contest despite not playing a full 90 minutes in two of his three appearances.

Combine USA + Folarin Balogun World Cup picks for bigger payouts on PrizePicks.

USA LW Christian Pulisic vs. Belgium

Christian Pulisic Projections via PrizePicks: 0.5 Goal + Assist, 1.5 Shots Assisted, 28.5 Passes Attempted

• Christian Pulisic has just 1 G/A in limited minutes at this year’s World Cup despite contributing greatly to the USA’s attack. The 27-year-old ranks in the top five in both xG and xA for the USMNT and could be due for another goal contribution at this point.
• Captain America is averaging 1 assist per 55 minutes played. The AC Milan left-winger dealt with injuries at the start of the competition, which has slightly skewed his numbers. Perhaps Pulisic can to return to his playmaking ways in the USA’s biggest game in over 20 years.
• Pulisic put in his longest shift of the Round of 32 against Bosnia. The LW had just 27 passes attempted, despite the USA having nearly 50% possession. In a match in which Belgium is expected to see more of the ball, it is difficult to see Pulisic reaching more than 29 passes attempted for the first time in this competition.

Combine USA + Christian Pulisic World Cup picks for bigger payouts on PrizePicks.

Belgium ST Romelu Lukaku vs. USA

Romelu Lukaku Projections via PrizePicks: 0.5 Shots on Target (Goblin), 0.5 Goals (Demon), 2 Shots

• Romelu Lukaku has played limited minutes across his four appearances, averaging 1 shot on target per 91.5 minutes. The Napoli striker failed to register one in his lone start of the competition.
• Lukaku continues to be one of the world’s best strikers in his fourth World Cup appearance for Belgium, as the 33-year-old has added 2 goals to his 5 career World Cup scores.
• The Belgian legend has struggled to get shots off during his limited playing time. Apart from the first game, Lukaku has been unable to register more than 1 shot in the three games before it. The 6’3” striker has received a warranted amount of attention in the box and has been unable to find space to get off shots consistently.

Combine Belgium + Romelu Lukaku World Cup picks for bigger payouts on PrizePicks.

Make Your USA vs. Belgium Prediction for World Cup Round of 16 on PrizePicks

Can Balogun's return provide the spark the USA needs to reach its first World Cup quarterfinal in 24 years, or will Belgium make it five straight wins over the co-hosts and advance to the quarterfinals? 

Don’t wait until lock. Make your USA vs. Belgium picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right on every World Cup game.

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