The UFC is back at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas this Saturday, February 7, for UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira, with the prelims starting at 5 p.m. ET and the main card set for 8 p.m. ET on Paramount+.
Check out our UFC Fight Night predictions for Bautista vs. Oliveira, as well as the rest of the main card fights, after which you can pick More or Less on fighter stats to win real money if you're right.
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UFC Fight Night Predictions for Bautista vs. Oliveira, Main Card Fights
In the headliner, bantamweight contenders Mario Bautista and Vinicius Oliveira meet in a five-round main event that could shake up the crowded 135-pound pecking order.
The remainder of the main card is stacked with exciting fights, from the flyweight co-headliner between the returning Amir Albazi and the surging Kyoji Horiguchi to the heavyweight featured bout between two potent finishers, Jailton Almeida and Rizvan Kuniev.
Let's dive into our UFC Fight Night best picks and predictions for every main card fight, including picks on fighter projections for PrizePicks.
UFC Fight Night Predictions, Picks for Main Card
Here are our expert UFC Fight Night predictions and picks. All picks are available via PrizePicks UFC board. You can also pick fight winners on PrizePicks Team Picks in 30+ states.
Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira Prediction for UFC Fight Night Main Event
Mario Bautista (16-3) looks to cement his contender status against the electrifying Vinicius Oliveira (23-3) in a bantamweight main event that guarantees fireworks.
Fight Winner Payouts: Bautista 1.63x ($100 pays $163) | Oliveira 2.22x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)
UFC Fight Night Pick: Mario Bautista 81.5 Significant Strikes
- Bautista lands 5.58 significant strikes per minute, meaning he is on pace to land approximately 139 strikes over the course of a 25-minute main event.
- In his high-pace decision win over Patchy Mix, Bautista landed a staggering 173 significant strikes in just three rounds.
- Over a scheduled 25 minutes, Bautista needs to average just 3.3 significant strikes per minute to eclipse his 81.5 projection.
- While Vinicius Oliveira boasts a 58% striking defense, his aggressive "Lok Dog" style invites firefights — with Bautista connecting on 48% of his attempts and historically ramping up volume as the fight extends, the five-round main event duration provides a massive safety net for him to land at least 82 significant strikes.
Amir Albazi vs. Kyoji Horiguchi Prediction for UFC Fight Night Co-Main Event
Amir Albazi (17-2) steps back into the octagon for the first time in nearly 15 months against Kyoji Horiguchi (35-5), who made a statement in his return to the octagon, finishing Tagir Ulanbekov in his last fight.
Fight Winner Payouts: Albazi 3.44x ($100 pays $344) | Horiguchi 1.28x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)
UFC Fight Night Pick: Kyoji Horiguchi 51.5 Significant Strikes
- 'The Prince' absorbs 3.71 significant strikes per minute, allowing his last two opponents to land a combined 231 significant strikes against him.
- In his last UFC appearance against a similar grappler in Tagir Ulanbekov, Horiguchi landed 63% of his strikes (49 significant strikes landed).
- Over a potential 15 minutes, Horiguchi needs to average just 3.44 significant strikes per minute to clear his 51.5 projection.
- This fight is heavily favored to see the scorecards, guaranteeing Horiguchi the full 15-minute window to accumulate volume against a plodding opponent.
Jailton Almeida vs. Rizvan Kuniev Prediction for UFC Fight Night
Jailton Almeida (22-4) collides with Rizvan Kuniev (13-3-1) in a heavyweight clash of contrasting grapplers as both look to get back on track with a big win this weekend.
Fight Winner Payouts: Almeida 1.58x ($100 pays $158) | Kuniev 4.34x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)
UFC Fight Night Pick: Almeida-Kuniev 8 Minutes (Fight Time)
- Kuniev’s only UFC appearance went the distance against former heavyweight title challenger Curtis Blaydes.
- Almeida averages 6.66 takedowns per 15 minutes, and that kind of takedown-chaining style naturally chews clock via extended clinch-to-mat sequences.
- The Brazilian heavyweight also absorbs just 1.02 significant strikes per minute.
- Kuniev lands takedowns at a 75% clip and averages 1.45 takedowns per 15 minutes, giving him enough wrestling equity to force scrambles and stall-outs that stretch the fight time past 8 minutes.
Michal Oleksiejczuk vs. Marc-Andre Barriault Prediction for UFC Fight Night
Michal Oleksiejczuk (21-9) meets Marc-Andre Barriault (17-10) in a middleweight battle that promises absolute carnage, which shouldn’t see the scorecards.
Fight Winner Payouts: Oleksiejczuk 1.19x ($100 pays $119) | Barriault 1.31x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)
UFC Fight Night Pick: Oleksiejczuk-Barriault 6 Minutes (Fight Time)
- Oleksiejczuk is a fast starter by definition, with a remarkable 13 first-round finishes on his record and an average fight time of just 6:03.
- "Hussar" has ended his last two fights via knockout in under 3:05, dispatching both Gerald Meerschaert and Sedriques Dumas before the first stool break.
- Barriault absorbs 5.63 significant strikes per minute with a coin-flip 50% defense, a dangerous statistical profile against a head-hunter like Oleksiejczuk, who specifically thrives on opponents who stand in the pocket to trade.
- Both men have defensive holes that accelerate finish times — Oleksiejczuk has been finished by submission in the first round three times in his last seven fights, while Barriault has been stopped in the first round multiple times, creating a "kill or be killed" dynamic that rarely reaches the third frame.
Jean Matsumoto vs. Farid Basharat Prediction for UFC Fight Night
Farid Basharat (14-0) faces Jean Matsumoto (18-1) in a battle of surging bantamweight prospects that could steal the show on an already exciting main card.
Fight Winner Payouts: Matsumoto 3.12x ($100 pays $312) | Basharat 1.33x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)
UFC Fight Night Pick: Farid Basharat 3.5 Takedowns
- Basharat averages 3.60 takedowns with 47% accuracy per 15 minutes, a consistent wrestling pace that suggests he will actively look to exploit Matsumoto's grappling deficiencies early and often.
- Matsumoto’s takedown defense sits at a concerning 53%, a statistical red flag that virtually guarantees Basharat will find success grounding the fight multiple times throughout the 15-minute duration.
- In his most recent matchup against Miles Johns, Matsumoto surrendered five takedowns despite coming away with the razor-close split decision.
- Basharat has landed at least 3 takedowns in multiple UFC outings, and given Matsumoto’s aggression (5.43 strikes absorbed per minute), Basharat will have ample opportunities to duck under high-variance strikes and secure reactive double-legs.
Dustin Jacoby vs. Julius Walker Prediction for UFC Fight Night
Dustin Jacoby (21-9-1) welcomes short-notice replacement Julius Walker (7-1) in a light heavyweight curtain-raiser that guarantees to kick off the show the right way.
Fight Winner Payouts: Jacoby 1.49x ($100 pays $149) | Walker 2.38x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)
UFC Fight Night Pick: Jacoby-Walker 12 Minutes (Fight Time)
- Dustin Jacoby's average fight time sits at 10:08, and he has heard the final horn in 9 of his 16 UFC appearances.
- Julius Walker has seen the judges’ scorecards in both of his UFC fights, most recently earning a unanimous decision over Rodrigo Cerqueira in August 2025.
- Jacoby absorbs 4.02 significant strikes per minute with a solid 57% defense rate. He also has enough takedown defense (62%) to keep this fight standing, where he is most comfortable.
- Despite his power, Jacoby’s volume-heavy kickboxing style (5.37 SLpM) is built on accumulating damage over time — his recent fights against Vitor Petrino and Alonzo Menifield both extended into the third round and went the distance, suggesting this matchup could exceed the 12-minute projection.
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Make UFC Fight Night Predictions on PrizePicks
UFC Fight Night, headlined by Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira, is set to be a fantastic main event on Saturday, plus plenty of important fights on the main card.
Before you watch the fights, you can lock in your UFC picks on PrizePicks – it’s the simplest way to win real money if your predictions are right on UFC Fight Night: Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira.
Head over to the PrizePicks app and pick More or Less on two or more fighter projections in UFC Fight Night: Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira, and lock in your lineup to win real money on the fights if you're right. You can also predict UFC fight winners on PrizePicks Team Picks, now available in 30 states.
Keep it locked in here with PrizePicks and the Playbook for continued UFC picks, predictions, and news.
