UFC Belgrade Predictions for Medic vs. Rodriguez & Every Main Card Fight

With all of the rising MMA talent coming up from Serbia, it was only a matter of time before the UFC made a stop in the burgeoning hub.

Stars of the UFC will visit Belgrade, Serbia, on Saturday, August 1, for a special UFC Fight Night, and the headliner is one of the country’s most show-stopping fighters in history.

Knockout artist Uros “The Doctor” Medic will look to defend his spot in the rankings against boxing ace Daniel Rodriguez in the UFC Belgrade main event.

The UFC Belgrade main card features six fights, with Medic a heavy favorite over Rodriguez on home soil in the main event on PrizePicks Team Picks

In the co-main event, Navajo Stirling steps into the cage for the second time in just over a month versus Jan Blachowicz in a last-minute clash at light heavyweight.

The UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez main fight card starts midday Saturday at 1:00 p.m. ET from Belgrade on Paramount+. We'll give our UFC Belgrade predictions for breaking down every fight with UFC Belgrade predictions, predictive model analysis, and PrizePicks UFC picks for Medic vs. Rodriguez and the rest of the main card.

Make your UFC Fight Night predictions on PrizePicks, including fight winners, method of victory, and more!

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UFC Belgrade Predictions for Medic vs. Rodriguez & Fight Night Main Card

Before we get into our UFC Belgrade predictions for Saturday's UFC Fight Night, here’s a brief intro on what you'll find below.

UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez’s main card is expected to start at 1:00 p.m. ET with the first main card fight. Here’s a full rundown of the proceedings:

• Main Event: Uros Medic vs. Daniel Rodriguez – Welterweight
• Co-Main Event: Jan Blachowicz vs. Navajo Stirling – Light Heavyweight
• Aleksandar Rakic vs. Marcin Tybura – Heavyweight
• Dusko Todorovic vs. Robert Valentin – Middleweight
• Vlasto Cepo vs. Gilbert Urbina – Middleweight
• Milos Janicic vs. Noah Gugnon – Lightweight

We’ll list the payouts for who will win each UFC Fight Night main card fight, via PrizePicks Team Picks. A 2x means the result will pay out $200 on a $100 entry. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied chance of that result based on user picks.

PrizePicks Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. UFC winner markets are available in 36 states, including Florida, California, and Texas! 

Learn more about Austin Swaim's UFC model here, with all eligible results included below.

Uros Medic vs. Daniel Rodriguez Prediction for UFC Belgrade

Fight Winner Payouts: Uros Medic 1.23x | Daniel Rodriguez 3.84x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Welterweight (170 lbs.)

Medic vs. Rodriguez Model Results:

A star was born at UFC Houston in February. UFC couldn’t even fend off a request for a trip to his home country anymore.

Uros “The Doctor” Medic was drawn up in a lab to be a high-entertainment, high-impact UFC fighter. The knockout artist has an impossible 4.04% knockdown rate (KD%), meaning he drops a foe on about 1 in every 25 punches.

It’s an absurd commitment to power and trying to turn out the lights:

Medic's average fight time is just four minutes. He’s also been dropped twice in his last four fights. If nerves or a five-round duration don’t change anything, we could have a quick one on Saturday afternoon.

Of course, the UFC set a perfect matchup for him, though. 39-year-old Daniel Rodriguez is quite literally as tough as they come at welterweight, losing just once via knockout in 25 pro fights — against Ian Garry on a sneaky head kick.

“D-Rod” seemed unbothered by time in a Tijuana prison earlier this year, which wasn’t his first trip. He’s a truly organic breed of toughness who also brings pretty special boxing skills, landing 7.20 significant strikes per minute with a tremendous striking success rate (+1.80 SSR).

This high-stakes main event is a perfect stylistic clash. Getting up there in age, can Rodriguez withstand a Medic hook that so few fighters have been able to? Or, can his legendary chin force Medic into deeper waters that he hasn’t seen? The Serbian’s longest pro fight was just under 13 minutes.

Predict the Medic vs. Rodriguez Winner at UFC Belgrade on PrizePicks!

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Medic vs. Rodriguez Pick for UFC Fight Night

Daniel Rodriguez – 24.5 Significant Strikes

Given D-Rod’s aforementioned historical land rate, he doesn’t have to be around too long for the high side of this projection to come to fruition.

Rodriguez’s historical durability is two parts. First is the toughness, but he’s also got tremendous vision and striking defense (57%). He’s been dropped just twice in 14 UFC fights.

Medic’s rise to prominence against Geoff Neal was really unexpected. He was a hefty underdog to Neal after wins over a 41-year-old Muslim Salikhov and a 40-year-old Tim Means. Rodriguez has faced a fighter who held a ranking in their career in seven straight fights. 

“The Doctor” is as powerful as it gets, but would it be a total stunner if the veteran hung around here?

Make Your Medic vs. Rodriguez Pick for UFC Belgrade on PrizePicks

Jan Blachowicz vs. Navajo Stirling Prediction for UFC Belgrade

Fight Winner Payouts: Jan Blachowicz 3.57x | Navajo Stirling 1.26x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Light Heavyweight (205 lbs.)

Blachowicz vs. Stirling Model Results:

A lasting imprint of last week’s main event is that Jan Blachowicz was left without a dancing partner. New Zealand’s Navajo Stirling stepped up to the plate.

We saw Stirling just over a month ago — on June 20 against Ion Cutelaba; it’s an incredibly quick turnaround for the Kiwi as he looks to join light heavyweight’s top 10.

He’s now unblemished in five UFC starts, and the 28-year-old seems to be upping his performance each time out. Following a second-round (T)KO of Bruno Lopes, he added another after breaking Cutelaba at his own game:

Blachowicz, a former world champion, is a mammoth step up, though — even as the oldest UFC athlete (43) to compete this year. He’s winless in three straight starts, but Carlos Ulberg, Alex Pereira, and Bogdan Guskov aren’t easy tests.

While his speed, reaction times, and overall durability clearly aren’t what they used to be, there still is plenty of “Legendary Polish Power” to fear in those meat hooks:

Forecasts are stacked against Blachowicz due to his age and lack of weight training, stemming from a career-long shoulder injury. Plus, he pulled out of a rematch with Guskov earlier this year due to a torn meniscus. Is “Father Time” at the doorstep for the former champ, or can he teach one final lesson to a surging contender?

Predict the Blachowicz vs. Stirling Winner at UFC Belgrade on PrizePicks

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Blachowicz vs. Stirling Pick for UFC Fight Night

Navajo Stirling – 58.5 Significant Strikes

Saturday’s co-main event may have some length between two fighters with experience. If you’re looking for the fight with the promotion where Jan Blachowicz went out quickly and easily, it simply doesn’t exist.

Glover Teixeira’s submission of Jan — which came just outside eight minutes — was the quickest anyone has ever finished the former champ, and Stirling has zero submission attempts to this point. That checks out with his kickboxing background.

Frankly, the Kiwi is technical. He’s patient. He’s a grinder. But, his 0.69 KD% isn’t exactly a show of one-punch-and-go power.

Especially on short notice, Stirling might have a hard time finding the highlight he’s looking for. Instead, he lands 6.24 significant strikes per minute behind calculated jabs, teeps, and low kicks.

Make Your Blachowicz vs. Stirling Pick for UFC Belgrade on PrizePicks

Aleksandar Rakic vs. Marcin Tybura Prediction for UFC Belgrade

Fight Winner Payouts: Aleksandar Rakic 1.25x | Marcin Tybura 3.70x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Heavyweight (265 lbs.)

Rakic vs. Tybura Model Results:

There are some weight class shifts where I just shake my head. Not here. I love this move to heavyweight for Aleksandar Rakic — if for no other reason than extending his career at 34. Many heavyweights fight into their 40s.

“The Rocket” Rakic is a two-time UFC headliner who never quite capitalized on his tremendous potential at 205 pounds. He tore his ACL against Blachowicz and was on the wrong end of a miraculous Jiri Prochazka comeback that vaulted the Czech fighter to title fights — not Rakic.

His final divisional bout against Azamat Murzakanov dashed all hope:

Taking Magomed Ankalaev to a decision in 2024, he’s clearly proven to be skilled, and the 6’4” behemoth isn’t short on size at heavyweight, either. Will his speed be the difference in starting to mount highlights again?

Well, Marcin “Tybur” Tybura is historically a guy who can be put on a reel. He’s lost seven times as a pro via early finish — as recently as 2025 against Ante Delija:

At 40 years old, the Polish fighter isn’t getting any younger, but I’d argue he should have picked up a win inside the rankings over Tyrell Fortune, per his +14 strike differential in the fight. He’s still a meticulous slog author whose best work comes in the clinch.

If Rakic’s adjustment to heavyweight leaves him short on strength, Tybura can absolutely win minutes in tight. It’ll just be tough for the underdog to find a way to get comfortable positions against Rakic when he’s slower at distance, and the Serbian fighter’s 85% takedown defense was elite in his old division.

Predict the Rakic vs. Tybura Winner at UFC Belgrade on PrizePicks

Rakic vs. Tybura Pick for UFC Fight Night

Aleksandar Rakic – 35.5 Significant Strikes

Like the Stirling-Blachowicz bout, here are two other big guys that sort of buck those violent divisional trends.

Marcin Tybura is notoriously not a finisher; 8 of his last 15 fights have gone the distance, and some of the exceptions — like an injury (hopefully), fluke armbar, and a pair of KOs from mount — probably aren’t on the table here. His 0.11 KD% is an outlier in the heavyweight division.

Rakic, though, might be down on power in his new division. He had just a 0.82 KD% in his lighter division. He hasn’t dropped someone from a punch since August 2020.

The model’s verdict of projected length in this bout (53.9% likely to go the distance) could help Rakic’s counting totals. He was always a prolific, accurate striker (50% striking accuracy), and moving up in weight should help his per-minute efficiency at the cost of durability.

Make Your Rakic vs. Tybura Pick for UFC Belgrade on PrizePicks

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Dusko Todorovic vs. Robert Valentin Prediction for UFC Belgrade

Fight Winner Payouts: Dusko Todorovic 2.32x | Robert Valentin 1.56x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Middleweight (185 lbs.)

Todorovic vs. Valentin Model Results:

A middleweight banger got a main card placement here between Todorovic vs. Valentin.

When 11 of this duo’s 14 UFC fights have ended inside the distance, expect some violence as Robert “Robzilla” Valentin looks to get a win on road soil against Dusko “Thunder” Todorovic.

Todorovic’s perseverance through a brutal strength of schedule that includes Gregory Rodrigues, Christian Leroy Duncan, and Puna Soriano to make this walk in Serbia deserves credit. The 32-year-old former prospect might well be fighting for his job in Belgrade, but more highlights like his last outing would help:

As a former contestant on The Ultimate Fighter, Valentin got his much-needed first UFC win against Julien Leblanc in Canada earlier this year. Maybe he’s got a flair for being the visitor?

Valentin is a submission specialist; 7 of his 11 pro wins have come via tapout, including the bout against Leblanc. He’s averaged a whopping 1.8 attempts per 15 minutes in UFC.

Todorovic hasn’t been submitted in 11 promotional appearances, which makes this matchup so intriguing. Does it devolve into an ugly striking match? If so, Valentin has three inches of reach, but the Serbian (+0.33 SSR) has been significantly more efficient than this Swiss fighter (-1.42 SSR) at distance.

Predict the Todorovic vs. Valentin Winner at UFC Belgrade on PrizePicks

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Todorovic vs. Valentin Pick for UFC Fight Night

Robert Valentin – 7 Minutes Fight Time

Gameplans of both fighters will be pretty telling as to where this total falls for a fight I have modeled 62.7% likely not to go its full distance. Clearly, those who set the projections are on board with the idea that an early finish is likely.

“Robzilla” is typically a wild man from the opening bell. Three of his four fights ended inside seven minutes, but the wrestling control of Torrez Finney (with eight takedowns) produced a full-length decision. Todorovic averages 8.43 takedown attempts per 15 minutes himself.

As for the underdog, 8 of Todorovic’s 10 official UFC fights have ended inside of nine minutes. He’s 1-2 in events that went the full distance. Valentin’s poor striking (33%) and takedown (55%) defense are exploitable for a man with a 92.3% pro finishing rate.

Make Your Todorovic vs. Valentin Pick for UFC Belgrade on PrizePicks

Vlasto Cepo vs. Gilbert Urbina Prediction for UFC Belgrade

Fight Winner Payouts: Vlasto Cepo 1.26x | Gilbert Urbina 3.57x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Middleweight (185 lbs.)

I don’t think it’ll take long for Vlasto “El Chapo” Cepo to ingratiate himself with UFC fans. Certainly not throwing like this:

We just want a dude who’s down to scrap, and that’s this Serbian debutant. He’s seen the scorecards just once in 17 pro fights with violent boxing and an opportunistic submission game, per 4 career tapouts.

Cepo’s placement on the main card is intentional. He went 6-2 with a strong regional promotion at OKTAGON MMA. At one point, he even boxed former UFC standout Hector Lombard outside an MMA cage.

As you can tell from the clip above, Cepo often uses his offense as his defense, which could give UFC veteran Gilbert Urbina the path to an upset.

“The RGV Bad Boy” might be more talented than his 1-3 record would indicate, but he’s badly struggled with a mediocre chin and poor striking defense (44%). This weekend’s headliner, Medic, and Charles “Chuck Buffalo” Radtke knocked him out inside the first five minutes.

Urbina systematically broke down Orion Cosce for a +35 strike differential in his lone UFC win:

Urbina moves to middleweight for the first time as a pro. At 6’3”, he’s always cut a ton of weight to get down to 170 pounds and hopes 185 is the correct balance of size and durability. That will be put to the most supreme test against Cepo, who rarely isn’t marching forward right from the opening bell.

Predict the Cepo vs. Urbina Winner at UFC Belgrade on PrizePicks

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Cepo vs. Urbina Pick for UFC Fight Night

Gilbert Urbina – 12.5 Significant Strikes

Beware of this low significant strikes projection, which could look silly if Urbina’s transition to middleweight goes as he hopes.

Quietly, the American lands 5.57 significant strikes per minute with tremendous accuracy (56%). He’s just gotten very little runway to do so without the ability to eat shots at welterweight.

From a boxing background, I also don’t know how much experience Cepo has at getting off his back. That’s problematic, given that Urbina has historically landed 2.86 takedowns per 15 minutes. Offensively, he’s a well-rounded combatant.

Really, we’ll know in just one or two flush punches from “El Chapo” if his durability has improved. If it has, this is a violent, bloody sleeper for “Fight of the Night”.

Make Your Cepo vs. Urbina Pick for UFC Belgrade on PrizePicks

Milos Janicic vs. Noah Gugnon Prediction for UFC Belgrade

Fight Winner Payouts: Milos Janicic 1.92x | Noah Gugnon 1.78x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Lightweight (155 lbs.)

Even the most ardent UFC fans might respond to this main card bout with, “who?!?”, but I think the promotion cooked for fans with these newcomers after a brief tape review.

Montenegro’s Milos Janicic and France’s Noah Gugnon have significant regional experience to believe they’re ready for the big show. 

Janicic went 2-0 in OKTAGON after a long combat sports career that has transitioned from kickboxing and bare-knuckle boxing to MMA.

You wouldn’t teach someone Janicic's striking style with his hands low, but he has innate trust in his eyes and experience — sort of similar to a King Green-esque style in this same division:

Noah "Guns" Gugnon got a taste of the bright lights during a 2023 bout with Bellator, but he was only 22-years-old at the time. His early experience came in grappling and Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but he’s rounded out his kickboxing skill set, which seems to be improving with each fight. Don’t sleep on the ground-and-pound, either:

Though the Frenchman would figure to have an advantage on the mat, Janicic has eight pro submissions and hasn’t been stopped since June 2016. While you’d give the Montenegrin the edge at distance, Gugnon’s only career loss by finish came from clinch elbows.

As projections indicate, this seems to be a hotly contested bout between newcomers to open the main card.

Predict the Janicic vs. Gugnon Winner at UFC Belgrade on PrizePicks

Janicic vs. Gugnon Pick for UFC Fight Night

Noah Gugnon – 24.5 Significant Strikes

If there are any octagon jitters to limit activity, it might be extremely difficult for Gugnon to land strikes in his unpreferred domain. The favorite would probably rather operate on the mat.

As it stands, Janicic’s immense amount of striking experience makes him brutal to hit. Look at the way he’s able to reset his feet, evade danger, and roll off strikes in this OKTAGON bout with Ebrahim Hosseinpour:

These count as misses in terms of significant strikes in UFC because they’re not landing flush. In UFC, I’m projecting the newcomer’s striking defense to reside somewhere in the 55% to 65% range like King Green’s (62%).

Even in an extended fight, that will make racking up striking totals challenging. Successful wrestling efforts from Gugnon won’t help his cause for the More, either.

Make Your Janicic vs. Gugnon Pick for UFC Belgrade on PrizePicks

Swaim’s UFC Model for UFC Fight Night: How It Works

Above are the results from my predictive UFC model that uses historical UFC stats, fighter attributes, tendencies, and historical finishing outcomes to estimate a fighter's win probability, how often they win by finish, and the exact method of victory.

The results for each fight are listed above as "model results".

To avoid poor results from a small sample, both fighters must have 35 minutes of octagon time or 5 completed UFC fights to be included in the model, which is why some fights will be ineligible for a result.

Each eligible UFC Fight Night main card fight is listed with model data to help you make your UFC predictions on PrizePicks today.

‍Follow Austin Swaim for more UFC picks, predictions, and analysis.

All UFC predictions and analysis — model or otherwise — are the opinions of writers who are not investment professionals. Picks are not based on PrizePicks Team Picks payout multipliers and are not recommendations to trade.

Make UFC Fight Night Predictions on PrizePicks

UFC Belgrade goes down this Saturday afternoon, headlined by a welterweight main event featuring Uros Medic — who will fight on home soil in Belgrade — against Daniel Rodriguez. Plus, there's a stacked card of fighters who are looking to climb up the ranks in Belgrade.

Lock in your UFC predictions for today's UFC Belgrade main fight card, which starts at 1 p.m. ET on Paramount+.

Just go to the PrizePicks app and pick More or Less on two or more UFC fighter projections for UFC Fight Night, headlined by Medic vs. Rodriguez, and lock in your lineup to win real money on the fights if you're right.

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