On Saturday, fight fans are treated to a compelling main card matchup at UFC 321, where elite bantamweight talent takes center stage as undefeated Dagestani prospect Umar Nurmagomeov faces all-action contender Mario Bautista.
Before the spotlight shines on the highly anticipated main event at UFC 321, Nurmagomedov vs. Bautista promises a fascinating stylistic chess match on the UFC 321 fight card.
We'll break down our Nurmagomedov vs. Bautista prediction and expert pick for UFC 321 below, including PrizePicks UFC picks for this high-stakes heavyweight battle.
Nurmagomedov brings his trademark grappling dominance and relentless pressure, while Bautista enters riding a surge of momentum behind his versatile striking and fight-altering cardio.
This pivotal bout could propel the winner straight into the bantamweight title conversation — the stakes and skill level are as high as you’ll find outside a championship contest.
UFC 321: Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista Preview
Umar Nurmagomedov (18-1) is looking to bounce back after suffering his first professional loss to bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili in a hard-fought five-round decision at UFC 311 in January. The Russian phenom came up short in his title bid, but he's determined to prove the loss was merely a learning experience as he continues his march back toward championship gold.
In contrast, Mario Bautista (16-2) has been on an absolute tear, riding an impressive eight-fight winning streak inside the Octagon. He's coming off a dominant unanimous decision victory over former Bellator champion Patchy Mix at UFC 316 in June, where he thoroughly outclassed the highly touted newcomer with crisp striking and superior footwork.
If this fight plays out on the feet, Nurmagomedov's evolving striking game will be tested against Bautista's fluid combinations.
Nurmagomedov has the elite wrestling and suffocating grappling to control the fight, but Bautista has the slick boxing and improved takedown defense that could keep him in the fight.
Nurmagomedov and Bautista are fighting for their shot at UFC gold. It'll be exciting to see if these top-tier bantamweights live up to the hype and put on a show for the fans in the Middle East.
Nurmagomedov vs. Bautista Start Time & Stats
Who doesn’t love an early fight card? UFC 321 is set for an early start time in the U.S., with Nurmagomedov vs. Bautista as the featured bout on the main card.
How to Watch Nurmagomedov vs. Bautista
- Date: Saturday October 25, 2025
- Time: Main Card - 2 p.m. ET | Volkov vs. Almeida Start Time: 3:00 p.m. ET (estimate)
- Location: Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
- TV: ESPN+ PPV
Umar Nurmagomedov Stats for UFC 321
Overall Record: 18-1
UFC Record: 6-1
Last 5 Fights: 4-1
Height: 5’8”
Reach: 69”
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.38
Takedowns Landed Per 15 Minutes: 3.26
Last Fight: Loss vs. Merab Dvalishvili by Decision
Finishes: 9 (7 KO/TKO/2 SUB)
Mario Bautista Stats for UFC 321
Overall Record: 16-2
UFC Record: 10-2
Last 5 Fights: 4-1
Height: 5’9"
Reach: 69”
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 6.13
Takedowns Landed Per 15 Minutes: 1.67
Last Fight: Win vs. Patchy Mix by Decision
Finishes: 9 (3 KO/TKO/6 SUB)
Nurmagomedov vs. Bautista Prediction & Pick
Nurmagomedov had been wreaking havoc in the 135-pound division, remaining undefeated through 18 fights before his title shot against Merab Dvalishvili at UFC 311.
For as elite as Nurmagomedov is on the mat, he's deceptively well-rounded with his striking. This has allowed him to land clean shots before opponents can establish their rhythm, utilizing an effective southpaw stance with sharp kicks and counter punches.
And with Nurmagomedov having exceptional grappling credentials — he's a Combat Sambo World Champion with a 78% takedown defense rate — it makes it difficult for his opponents to implement their own wrestling game plans.
Bautista utilizes great footwork, head movement, and slick boxing combinations for a bantamweight averaging 6.13 significant strikes per minute. His masterful performance against former Bellator champion Patchy Mix showcased his ability to fight at an elite level.
This fight comes down to who can dictate where this fight takes place. Nurmagomedov will need to keep this fight at kickboxing range, where he can utilize his lateral movement and kicks, and also mix in the takedown. Meanwhile, Bautista will need to get inside the pocket and make this a grueling, dirty fight to score the biggest upset on the night.
UFC 321 Prediction: Umar Nurmagomedov – 63.5 Significant Strikes
- Nurmagomedov lands 4.38 and throws 7.68 significant strikes per minute, landing 57% of his strikes.
- The Dagestani MMA fighter has exceeded 63.5 significant strikes landed in all of his UFC fights that have gone at least 15 minutes.
- Bautista absorbs 4.45 significant strikes per minute.
- The American striker has allowed his opponent exceed 63.5 significant strikes in two out of his last four fights.
Make UFC 321 Predictions on PrizePicks
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane will be broadcast live on ESPN+ PPV from Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, this Saturday, October 25.
The bantamweight featured bout on the main card pits two title contenders — Nurmagomedov vs. Bautista — against one another as they both look to put themselves into title contention in the wide-open lightweight division.
This UFC 321 fight card features some championship-level fighters who want to make a statement. With a fight like Nurmagomedov vs. Bautista, this is a must-see PPV event.
You can win real money by locking in your UFC 321 predictions on PrizePicks — from the first fight of the night all the way to the light heavyweight main event..
Just go to the PrizePicks MMA board, pick two or more UFC fighter projections, lock in your Lineup, and cash in if your picks are on point.
