Following the first weekend of the 2026 MLB season, many clubs are turning to Game 1 of a new series on Monday, March 30. Today features a loaded 15-game slate, providing ample opportunity for "Yes Run First Inning" (YRFI) or "No Run First Inning" (NRFI) picks.
Let’s highlight two games and break down each team’s chances of knocking in a first-inning run for MLB YRFI or NRFI picks on PrizePicks. How should we expect the first innings to unfold in a pair of MLB matchups on Monday?
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Yankees vs. Mariners YRFI or NRFI Pick
After sweeping the San Francisco Giants to begin the 2026 season, the New York Yankees (3-0) collide with the Seattle Mariners (2-2) at 9:40 p.m. ET tonight. These are two potential contenders in the American League, with PrizePicks Team Picks tabbing the Mariners as the favorite (4x payout) and the Yankees as the second favorite (4.76x) to win the AL.
New York has enjoyed strong play from its starters thus far, allowing only 1 run through three games. According to FanGraphs, the Yankees carry a 3.15 xFIP (fifth-best) and a 3.83 SIERA (sixth-best).
While Seattle has surrendered 6 runs in two separate matchups vs. the Guardians to open 2026, the Mariners still sport a 3.13 xFIP (fourth-best) and 2.47 SIERA (second-best).
The Yankees have yet to score a run in the first inning, contrasting 2025’s 39.6% YRFI rate (first), per BettingPros. Following last season’s 29.3% YRFI percentage (16th), the Mariners scored a first-inning run in two of their first four games.
Yankees SP Ryan Weathers vs. Mariners SP Luis Castillo
New York acquired SP Ryan Weathers during the offseason, and he will make his Yankees debut on Monday.
The 26-year-old pitcher started in only eight games last season, logging a 3.99 ERA and 4.03 xFIP. According to Baseball Savant, he was on pace to rank in the bottom half of hard-hit and barrel rates allowed. That’s something to watch with the Mariners finishing seventh in hard-hit rate last season.
Opponents logged a .245 batting average and a .317 wOBA vs. Weathers in 2025, and that dipped to .219 and .279 in the first inning. He gave up only one first-inning run over eight starts a season ago.
Unlike the youngster Weathers, we have a large sample size for Mariners SP Luis Castillo. His 4.09 xFIP from last season was the highest of the veteran’s career, and Castillo was in the 17th and eighth percentiles for barrel and hard-hit rates.
He yielded 1.15 home runs per 9 innings in 2025, setting off the alarms against New York’s heavy bats. In fact, the Yankees have 3 long balls over three contests. Furthermore, Castillo allowed 10 runs in the first inning over 32 starts in the 2025 season.
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Tigers vs. Diamondbacks YRFI or NRFI Pick
Capping today’s packed slate, the Detroit Tigers (2-1) vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks (0-3) is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET on Monday.
Detroit posted 4.3 runs per game in a 2-1 series win over the Padres. The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, were unfortunate to begin their season against the loaded Dodgers, dropping all three games while posting 2.7 runs per contest.
Both teams have tallied a first-inning run in one of three games. After logging a 37.7% YRFI rate in 2025 (second), could positive regression be ahead for Arizona? The Tigers logged a first-inning run in only 25.3% of games last season (27th).
Tigers SP Justin Verlander vs. Diamondbacks SP Michael Soroka
A pair of righties take the mound, as Tigers SP Justin Verlander and Diamondbacks SP Michael Soroka will duel on Monday night.
Verlander makes his return to Detroit, pitching with the club from 2005 to 2017. After posting a 5.48 ERA in 2024, Verlander rebounded by logging a 3.85 ERA last season. However, his 4.57 xFIP suggests fortune was on his side, but it was still a notable improvement from 2024’s 5.13 xFIP.
The right-handed hurler was strong in the first inning last year, giving up only 5 runs over 29 starts (1.55 ERA). For context, Verlander had 5.82 and 6.00 ERAs in the first inning for the 2024 and 2023 seasons. His 1.55 ERA from 2025 was his best mark since a 1.61 ERA in his 2022 Cy Young campaign.
After making only nine starts with a 4.54 xFIP in 2024, Soroka tallied a 4.21 xFIP over 22 appearances and 17 starts a season ago. He’s posted at least nine starts in three seasons, and in that split, Soroka’s 2.65 ERA in the first inning from 2025 was a career-best mark.
Aiding his case for a strong first inning, the Tigers had the fourth-highest K% in 2025 (23.9%), and Soroka’s 25.1% strikeout rate ranked in the 70th percentile last season.
Make YRFI & NRFI Picks on PrizePicks
Verlander vs. Soroka in the Tigers-Diamondbacks is just one potential angle for YRFI or NRFI picks in today’s monster 15-game slate.
You can make your 2026 MLB World Series and division future picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, run lines, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
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