MLB action begins at 6:40 p.m. ET on Tuesday, May 5, ending with a West Coast matchup between the Padres and Giants at 9:45 p.m. ET. Which players could flex their muscles with a home run today? Twins OF Byron Buxton is one player who is drawing attention for MLB projections on Tuesday.
PrizePicks offers daily home run projections for your MLB picks, and some hitters have been circled as the most popular home run picks among users on today’s slate.
Below, we’ll break down the most-picked MLB home run predictions for Tuesday, including each player’s matchup, recent production, and what makes them a popular home run pick today.
Make your MLB home run picks for Tuesday, May 5, on PrizePicks now.
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Top Home Run Picks Today – Tuesday, May 5
Hitting a home run is laced with one of the highest degrees of difficulty across sports. And that's what makes going yard so difficult to project on a nightly basis.
How hard is each player hitting the ball? Are they hitting fly balls? Who is pitching on the mound? What direction is the wind flying? That’s just the icing on the cake for breaking down home run projections.
Due to the difficulty of going yard, home run predictions are demons on PrizePicks, which come with a higher payout than standard. Additionally, you can only choose "More" on HR projections, which are set at 0.5.
Here are the most popular home run picks for today on PrizePicks as of writing.
- Yankees OF Aaron Judge
- Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber
- Twins OF Byron Buxton
- Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
- Yankees 1B Ben Rice
- Nationals OF James Wood
- Braves 1B Matt Olson
- Rays 3B Junior Caminero
- Blue Jays 3B Kazuma Okamoto
- Phillies 1B Bryce Harper
Below, we’ll break down three matchups for today, including the opposing starting pitcher with advanced stats from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, capped by a weather report via RotoGrinders.
Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber
Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies – 6:40 p.m. ET
Athletics Starting Pitcher: Luis Severino (7 GS, 2-2, 4.35 xFIP, 35.1% hard-hit, 37.5% FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 81 degrees, clear skies, and 16 mph winds out to CF
- Kyle Schwarber has struggled to consistently get on base with a .213 batting average, but he’s still slugging at a high rate with a .535 SLG and .495 xSLG (86th percentile).
- Backed by a 19.2% barrel rate (97th percentile) and a 50.0% fly ball rate, the Phillies’ designated hitter touts 11 home runs (tied for third-most).
- According to Baseball Savant, Athletics SP Luis Severino cedes a 9.3% barrel rate (36th percentile).
- Plus, FanGraphs credits the starter with a 35.1% hard-hit rate allowed that’s above the league average of 33.0%.
- Schwarber has smashed 9 of his 11 big flies against right-handed pitching.
- Despite batting average struggles, the Philly slugger rakes to the tune of .385 against sinkers, and Severino’s second most-used pitch is a sinker with a 22.1% usage rate.
- Furthermore, strong winds blowing to center field could give Schwarber an extra boost to hit one over the fence.
Add Kyle Schwarber to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Twins OF Byron Buxton
Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals – 6:45 p.m. ET
Nationals Starting Pitcher: Cade Cavalli (7 GS, 1-1, 3.81 xFIP, 26.4% hard-hit, 34.5% FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 83 degrees, clear skies, and 13 mph winds out to LF
- Byron Buxton could be aided by strong winds blowing to left field, and he’s batting .271 with 9 homers against right-handed pitchers compared to .224 and 1 big fly vs. southpaws.
- However, Tuesday brings a challenging matchup in the form of Nationals SP Cade Cavalli.
- The right-handed hurler allowed 1.29 HR/9 and a 17.5% home run-to-fly ball rate (HR/FB) over 10 starts last season.
- Some of this felt like bad luck considering his 25.5% fly ball rate and 34.2% hard-hit rate allowed.
- The positive regression has come for Cavalli over seven starts in 2026, giving up only 1 HR, 0.29 HR/FB, and a 3.3% HR/FB over seven starts.
- Furthermore, Cavalli has given up a 34.5% fly ball rate that’s under the 38.6% league average.
- Will that be enough to slow Buxton’s hot streak? He’s launched 5 home runs over his last seven games.
Add Byron Buxton to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astros – 8:10 p.m. ET
Dodgers Starting Pitcher: Shohei Ohtani (5 GS, 2-1, 3.21 xFIP, 36.5% hard-hit, 35.6% FB%)
MLB Weather Report: Weather is not a factor in the domed Minute Maid Park.
- While Yordan Alvarez boasts a .333 batting average and 12 homers, he’s hit only 1 dinger over his last 10 games.
- Tonight’s matchup against Dodgers SP Shohei Ohtani isn’t doing Alvarez any favors either.
- In fact, Ohtani has yet to allow a big fly over five starts, contributing to his elite 2.7% barrel rate allowed (91st percentile).
- Plus, the Dodgers’ two-way superstar has surrendered a 35.6% fly ball rate that’s under the 38.6% league average.
- This feels “sticky,” as Ohtani yielded only 0.57 HR/9 and a 7.1% HR/FB over 14 starts last season.
- In 15 at-bats between Alvarez and Ohtani, Houston’s designated hitter is batting .333 but has smashed only 1 home run in the split.
Add Yordan Alvarez to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Make MLB Home Run Picks on PrizePicks
Kyle Schwarber has a favorable matchup today paired with strong winds blowing to the outfield on Tuesday. Will Byron Buxton or Yordan Alvarez overcome tough matchups against flourishing starters?
Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
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