Top MLB Home Run Picks Today on PrizePicks – Thursday, August 6

There is an 11-game MLB slate with several tantalizing matchups on Thursday, August 6. The schedule begins with the Baltimore Orioles hosting the Los Angeles Angels at 12:35 p.m. ET, while the final game features the San Diego Padres facing off against the Arizona Diamondbacks at 9:40 p.m. ET.

PrizePicks offers daily home run projections for all your MLB picks, and many hitters have already been targeted by users as some of the most popular home run picks throughout Thursday’s action.

Below, we’ll break down the most-picked MLB home run predictions for Thursday, including each player’s matchup, recent production, and what makes them a popular home run pick.

Make your MLB home run picks for Thursday, August 6, on PrizePicks now.

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Top Home Run Picks Today – Thursday, August 6

Blasting a home run is one of the more difficult feats that a player can achieve on the diamond. As a result, it can be incredibly difficult to predict which players can go yard on a given day.

Several factors can contribute to a home run being hit on a specific day. How hard has a player been hitting the ball recently? Has the opposing starter been serving up several fly balls in their recent outings? Could weather conditions be a factor? 

Home run projections are labeled as Demons on PrizePicks, which comes with a higher payout. You can only choose “More” on home run projections, which are set at 0.5.

Here’s a look at the most popular home run picks for today on PrizePicks as of writing.

1. Braves 1B Matt Olson
2. Reds SS Elly De La Cruz
3. Phillies OF Bryce Harper
4. Cubs OF Pete Crow-Armstrong
5. Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber
6. White Sox 1B Munetaka Murakami
7. Brewers 1B Jake Bauers
8. Blue Jays 3B Kazuma Okamoto

Below, we’ll break down three matchups for today, including the opposing starting pitcher with advanced stats from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, capped by a weather report via RotoGrinders.

Brewers 1B Jake Bauers 

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers – 2:10 p.m. ET

Pirates Starting Pitcher: Braxton Ashcraft (22 GS, 11-4, 3.26 xFIP, 40.8% hard-hit, 35.5 FB%)

MLB Weather Report: This game will be played in a dome at American Family Field.

• Bauers has slugged a team-high 20 home runs throughout the 2026 campaign.
• The Brewers’ first baseman has blasted 17 of his 20 home runs off right-handed pitching this season.
• Further, Bauers has tallied a career-high 22.7% home run-to-fly ball rate (HR/FB) in 2026.
• Ashcraft is surrendering a 35.5% fly ball rate, making him vulnerable to Bauers' 36.4% fly ball rate.
• Bauers touts a 52.9% hard-hit rate (96th percentile), a 92.6 mph average exit velocity (93rd), and a 13.8% barrel rate (88th).
• Ashcraft has given up 6 home runs in his last five starts. The Pirates’ right-hander has recorded a 1.20 HR/9 in addition to a 13.8% HR/FB rate throughout the 2026 season.

Add Jake Bauers to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Phillies OF Bryce Harper 

Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies – 6:05 p.m. ET

Nationals Starting Pitcher: Miles Mikolas (10 GS, 3-8, 4.75 xFIP, 43.2% hard-hit, 37.7 FB%)

MLB Weather Report: 90 degrees, 33% chance of rain, and 9 mph winds to RF

• Harper ranks second on the Phillies with 24 home runs, including belting 2 in his last four contests.
• The Phillies’ outfielder blasted 20 of his 24 home runs against right-handed pitching throughout the 2026 campaign.
• His 20.7% HR/FB is Harper's highest mark since 2021.
• The two-time National League MVP has a 37.5% fly ball rate, while Mikolas has given up a 37.7% fly ball rate.
• Harper has enjoyed a very productive season, posting a .511 xSLG (93rd percentile), an 11.7% barrel rate (76th), and a 45.0% hard-hit rate (72nd).
• Mikolas has surrendered 6 home runs across his last three starts. The Nationals’ SP has recorded a 2.17 HR/9 to go along with an 18.1% HR/FB rate this season.

Add Bryce Harper to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Braves 1B Matt Olson 

Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves – 7:15 p.m. ET

Marlins Starting Pitcher: Janson Junk (15 GS, 5-6, 4.30 xFIP, 40.9% hard-hit, 39.6 FB%)

MLB Weather Report: 82 degrees, 47% chance of rain, and 3 mph winds to RF

• Olson leads the Braves with 31 home runs during the 2026 season, including two in his last four games.
• The Braves’ slugger has hit 20 of his 31 home runs against right-handed pitching this season.
• Olson has recorded a career-high 47.4% fly ball rate this season, while Junk is surrendering the second-highest fly ball rate of his career at 39.6%.
• The 2023 National League home run leader has registered a 20.3% home run-to-fly ball rate this season.
• Olson has excelled in several offensive metrics this season, including posting a .512 xSLG (94th percentile), a 14.6% barrel rate (92nd), and a 92.4 mph average exit velocity (91st).
• Junk has yielded 3 home runs across his last four starts. The Marins’ SP has compiled a 1.28 HR/9 to go along with an 11.3% HR/FB throughout the 2026 campaign.

Add Matt Olson to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Braves 1B Matt Olson has proven to be one of the league’s most dangerous power hitters this season. Olson will look to continue his strong season on Thursday, while Bryce Harper and Jake Bauers also seek to go yard.

Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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