Sunday, August 23, brings us a wonderful 15-game slate with every team in the majors taking to the diamond, with games starting as early as 11:30 a.m. ET. We have plenty of home run sluggers stepping in the box today, and we will be using hard-hit rates, weather, pitcher/batter splits, and more to analyze which of these players have the best chance to leave the yard.
PrizePicks offers daily home run projections for your MLB picks, and some hitters have been circled as the most popular home run picks among users on today’s schedule.
Below, we’ll break down the most-picked MLB home run predictions for Sunday, including each player’s matchup, recent production, and what makes them a popular home run pick today.
Make your MLB home run picks for Sunday, August 23, on PrizePicks now.
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Top Home Run Picks Today – Sunday, August 23
We all know hitting a home run is one of the hardest things to do in professional sports. However, with a little bit of research, we can use various trends to determine which mashers are primed to circle the bases today.
How hard is each player hitting the ball? Are the batted balls on the ground or in the air? Do they match up well against the pitcher on the mound? What direction is the wind blowing? That’s just the icing on the cake for breaking down home run projections.
Due to the difficulty of going yard, home run predictions are demons on PrizePicks, which come with a higher payout than standard. Additionally, you can only choose "More" on HR projections, which are set at 0.5.
Here are the most popular home run picks for today on PrizePicks as of writing.
- Braves 1B Matt Olson
- Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
- Braves OF Ronald Acuna Jr.
- Orioles 1B Pete Alonso
- Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber
- Rays 3B Junior Caminero
- Yankees DH Ben Rice
- Guardians 3B Jose Ramirez
- Cubs OF Pete Crow-Armstrong
- White Sox 1B Munetaka Murakami
Below, we’ll break down three matchups for today, including the opposing starting pitcher with advanced stats from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, capped by a weather report via RotoGrinders.
Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies – 11:35 a.m. ET
Cardinals Starting Pitcher: Kyle Leahy (24 GS, 10-4, 3.68 xFIP, 45.2% hard-hit, 27.8 FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 82 degrees, clear skies, and 9 mph winds blowing left to right.
- While Leahy doesn’t give up a ton of fly balls, he does allow a monstrous 45.2% hard-hit rate to LHB, which Schwarber can take advantage of with his 43.8% hard-hit rate against RHP.
- Schwarber’s natural swing path can make up for the lack of Leahy fly balls, as Schwarber hits fly balls on 50.3% of his ABs against RHP.
- Leahy’s worst HR split is on the road against LHB, where he is allowing a whopping 2.13 HR/9.
- The Philadelphia slugger has an unbelievable .420 ISO at home against RHP and has hit 23 of his 38 home runs at Citizens Bank Park.
- Schwarber has also been slightly better in day games, where he hits a home run on average every 11.6 plate appearances compared to every 12.3 plate appearances in night games.
Add Kyle Schwarber to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Guardians 3B Jose Ramirez
Cleveland Guardians vs. Colorado Rockies – 3:10 p.m. ET
Rockies Starting Pitcher: Tomoyuki Sugano (22 GS, 12-6, 4.80 xFIP, 43.6% hard-hit, 44.7 FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 91 degrees, clear skies, 7% precipitation, and 5 mph winds in from CF.
- Tomoyuki Sugano is the gift that keeps on giving for home run fans with a ridiculously high 1.97 HR/9.
- The Japanese righty has given up a home run in 10 straight games, including multiple home runs in five of those outings.
- At home against LHB, Sugano is allowing a 49.1% hard-hit rate as well as a 42.7% fly ball rate, an absolute dream for left-handed power hitters.
- While Ramirez doesn’t scald the ball with just a 35% hard-hit rate, he does a great job of getting balls in the air, as seen by his 48.8% fly ball rate against RHP.
- Ramirez is only 1 for 6 against Sugano, but that 1 hit was a home run.
- Japanese pitchers tend to throw the splitter more than average, and Sugano is no different, throwing the pitch 21.6% of the time.
- Ramirez has historically performed extremely well against the splitter, and this year is no different with an above-average 1.92 wFS/C.
Add Jose Ramirez to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Padres OF Jackson Merrill
Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres – 4:10 p.m. ET
Twins Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober (19 GS, 7-4, 4.84 xFIP, 36.3% hard-hit, 53.8 FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 86 degrees, clear skies, and 8 mph winds left to right.
- Much like Sugano, Ober has struggled with home runs his entire career, and this season is no different, as seen by his 1.48 HR/9.
- He has also struggled mightily against LHB, allowing a 1.80 HR/9 and 5.61 xFIP while having just a 4.35 K/9.
- This shows he is giving up a ton of contact against LHB, with the vast majority of that contact being hard (36.3% hard-hit rate) and in the air (53.8% fly ball rate).
- Merrill’s batting profile matches up well against Ober, as the Padres' lefty owns a 40.7% hard-hit rate and 43% fly ball rate against RHP.
- Ober has struggled on the road all season, allowing a .309 batting average away from home compared to a .217 batting average at home.
- He has also given up 8 of his 17 home runs on the road despite pitching 23.1 fewer innings away from home this season.
- Merrill struggled mightily in the first half of the season with just a .131 ISO and 76 wRC+, but he has come to life in the second half, where he owns a .285 ISO and 150 wRC+.
Add Jackson Merrill to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Kyle Schwarber will look to add on and maintain his MLB lead in home runs. Jose Ramirez and Jackson Merrill lack monster home run totals but have plenty of power and dream matchups against pitchers who can serve up some pitches to hit one into the parking lot.
Don’t wait until the first pitch—make your home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
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