Several series get underway with Game 1 on Tuesday, May 12, including a big-time clash between the Cubs and Braves atop the National League. Plus, the Yankees vs. the Orioles take the spotlight on Prime Video in an AL East bout.
PrizePicks offers daily home run projections for your MLB picks, and some hitters have been circled as the most popular home run picks among users on today’s slate. The NL East features a trio of sluggers holding favorable matchups on Tuesday night.
Below, we’ll break down the most-picked MLB home run predictions for Tuesday, including each player’s matchup, recent production, and what makes them a popular home run pick today.
Make your MLB home run picks for Tuesday, May 12, on PrizePicks now.
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Top Home Run Picks Today – Tuesday, May 12
Hitting a home run is laced with one of the highest degrees of difficulty across sports. And that's what makes going yard so difficult to project on a nightly basis.
How hard is each player hitting the ball? Are they hitting fly balls? Who is pitching on the mound? What direction is the wind flying? That’s just the icing on the cake for breaking down home run projections.
Due to the difficulty of going yard, home run predictions are demons on PrizePicks, which come with a higher payout than standard. Additionally, you can only choose "More" on HR projections, which are set at 0.5.
Here are the most popular home run picks for today on PrizePicks as of writing.
- Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber
- White Sox 1B Munetaka Murakami
- Angels OF Mike Trout
- Yankees OF Aaron Judge
- Reds SS Elly De La Cruz
- Twins OF Byron Buxton
- Nationals OF James Woods
- Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
- Cardinals OF Jordan Walker
- Cubs OF Seiya Suzuki
Below, we’ll break down three matchups for today, including the opposing starting pitcher with advanced stats from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, capped by a weather report via RotoGrinders.
Reds SS Elly De La Cruz
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds – 6:40 p.m. ET
Nationals Starting Pitcher: Miles Mikolas (5 GS, 1-3, 4.33 xFIP, 30.1% hard-hit, 32.1% FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 75 degrees, clear skies, and 5 mph winds toward 3B
- Elly De La Cruz is on a blistering hot streak over his last three games, racking up 7 hits over 12 at-bats (.583), but he’s yet to go yard in May.
- He’s making plenty of loud contact, proven by a 93.9 average exit velocity (96th percentile), a 15.5% barrel rate (88th percentile), and a 50.9% hard-hit rate (90th percentile).
- Nationals SP Miles Mikolas’ 30.1% hard-hit and 32.1% flyball rates allowed are under the league averages of 33.3% and 38.5%.
- However, Mikolas has still given up an alarming 2.48 HR/9 and 25.0% home run-to-fly ball rate (HR/FB).
- Washington’s starter has surrendered 1 HR in three consecutive starts, and De La Cruz boasts a strong 25.0% HR/FB.
- Ballpark Pal gives the Nationals vs. Reds the third-highest home run factor (+12%) for Tuesday’s slate.
Add Elly De La Cruz to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Cubs OF Seiya Suzuki
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves – 7:15 p.m. ET
Braves Starting Pitcher: Grant Holmes (7 GS, 2-1, 4.58 xFIP, 37.7% hard-hit, 38.9% FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 75 degrees, clear skies, and 6 mph winds toward home plate
- After batting .328 with 5 HRs in April, Seiya Suzuki has cooled off with a .219 batting average in May.
- However, Suzuki has still managed to launch 2 long balls over nine games this month, aided by his .494 xSLG (86th percentile).
- The Cubs outfielder touts an impressive 44.4% flyball rate and 21.9% HR/FB that’s far above league averages of 38.5% and 10.8%.
- Braves SP Grant Holmes permitted 4 dingers in his last three starts and carries 1.45 HR/9.
- Additionally, Holmes gives up a 13.6% HR/FB.
- Suzuki hit 6 of his 7 homers against right-handed pitching, and he rakes with a .357 average against four-seam fastballs — which is Holmes’ second-most used pitch with a 37.3% usage rate.
Add Seiya Suzuki to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Cardinals OF Jordan Walker
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics – 9:40 p.m. ET
Athletics Starting Pitcher: Jeffrey Springs (8 GS, 3-2, 4.18 xFIP, 32.0% hard-hit, 46.8% FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 82 degrees, clear skies, and 10 mph winds out to LF
- Strong winds are blowing to left field in Sutter Health Park, which Baseball Savant credits with the sixth-most HRs for Park Factors.
- Ballpark Pal gives this environment a lofty 31% home run factor on Tuesday. For context, the second-highest mark is only +16% in Rate Field on Tuesday.
- Jordan Walker could be a promising way to get exposure, as he carries a .558 xSLG (95th percentile), an 18.8% barrel rate (96th percentile), and a 55.4% hard-hit rate (96th percentile).
- That’s translated to 11 home runs on the season (tied for eighth-most).
- After hitting one over the fence on Sunday, the right-handed hitter may be aided by winds to left field tonight.
- Furthermore, Athletics SP Jeffrey Springs surrenders 1.43 HR/9 and an alarming 46.8% flyball rate.
- Walker gets plenty of lift thanks to his 43.6% flyball rate, leading to an elite 25.0% HR/FB.
Add Jordan Walker to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Make MLB Home Run Picks on PrizePicks
Weather and park factors could be at play tonight, leading to potential home run picks for Elly De La Cruz and Jordan Walker. The NL East is loaded with strong slugging matchups tonight.
Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
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