Today’s MLB action will all take place this evening, with Friday, May 8’s first game beginning at 6:10 p.m. ET between the Astros and Reds, while the Pirates vs. the Giants will cap the schedule with first pitch at 10:15 p.m. ET.
PrizePicks offers daily home run projections for your MLB picks, and some hitters have been circled as the most popular home run picks among users on today’s slate. Astros DH Yordan Alvarez and Braves 1B Matt Olson could flourish in hitter-friendly ballparks on Friday night.
Below, we’ll break down the most-picked MLB home run predictions for Friday, including each player’s matchup, recent production, and what makes them a popular home run pick today.
Make MLB home run picks for Friday, May 8, on PrizePicks now.
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Top Home Run Picks Today – Friday, May 8
Hitting a home run is laced with one of the highest degrees of difficulty across sports. And that's what makes going yard so difficult to project on a nightly basis.
How hard is each player hitting the ball? Are they hitting fly balls? Who is pitching on the mound? What direction is the wind flying? That’s just the icing on the cake for breaking down home run projections.
Due to the difficulty of going yard, home run predictions are demons on PrizePicks, which come with a higher payout than standard. Additionally, you can only choose "More" on HR projections, which are set at 0.5.
Here are the most popular home run picks for today on PrizePicks as of writing.
- Yankees OF Aaron Judge
- White Sox 1B Munetaka Murakami
- Blue Jays 3B Kazuma Okamoto
- Braves 1B Matt Olson
- Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber
- Angels OF Mike Trout
- Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
- Phillies 1B Bryce Harper
- Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani
- Twins OF Byron Buxton
Below, we’ll break down three matchups for today, including the opposing starting pitcher with advanced stats from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, capped by a weather report via RotoGrinders.
Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds – 6:10 p.m. ET
Reds Starting Pitcher: Nick Lodolo (28 GS, 9-8, 3.66 xFIP, 26.9% hard-hit, 39.4% FB% in 2025)
MLB Weather Report: 70 degrees, clear skies, and 10 mph winds toward 3B
- After batting .351 while launching 9 home runs in April, Yordan Alvarez is off to a cold start with a .130 average and no big flies through six games in May.
- However, he will play in one of MLB’s most hitter-friendly ballparks this weekend, as Baseball Savant’s Park Factors ranks the Reds’ Great American Ball Park second for the most home runs since 2024.
- Furthermore, Ballpark Pal places Great American Ball Park with the second-highest home run factor (+8%) for tonight, combining ballpark and weather factors.
- Alvarez certainly has the power to take advantage, boasting a .756 xSLG (100th percentile), an 18.2% barrel rate (95th percentile), and a 52.1% hard-hit rate (92nd percentile).
- Reds SP Nick Lodolo will make his 2026 debut tonight, and he allowed 1.26 HR/9 and a 12.9% home run-to-fly ball rate (HR/FB) last season.
- Alvarez maintains production against left-handed pitchers, hitting to the tune of .321 while launching 5 of his 12 homers in the split.
Add Yordan Alvarez to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies – 6:40 p.m. ET
Rockies Starting Pitcher: Chase Dollander (1 GS, 3-2, 3.47 xFIP, 42.4% hard-hit, 37.1% FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 68 degrees, clear skies, and 6 mph winds toward 1B
- Kyle Schwarber went yard on Thursday, taking his home run total to 12 — giving the Phillies slugger the fourth-highest mark in baseball.
- Tonight, the Rockies will start Chase Dollander, who has made seven of his eight appearances as a reliever this season. He’s still averaged 4.6 IP per outing.
- Dollander has given up only 0.96 HR/9, which is under the 1.08 league average.
- However, Colorado’s hurler has yielded an alarming 52.5% hard-hit rate (third percentile), per Baseball Savant.
- Schwarber boasts an exceptional 48.3% hard-hit rate (81st percentile), paired with an elite 20.7% barrel rate (98th percentile) and 51.7% flyball rate.
- Dollander’s second-most used pitch is a sinker (23.5%), and Schwarber bats .429 with 3 of his 12 HRs coming against this pitch.
Add Kyle Schwarber to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Braves 1B Matt Olson
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers – 10:10 p.m. ET
Dodgers Starting Pitcher: Emmet Sheehan (6 GS, 2-1, 3.11 xFIP, 36.0% hard-hit, 33.7% FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 68 degrees, clear skies, and 8 mph winds out to CF.
- Matt Olson is another slugger who could benefit from park factors tonight. In fact, Baseball Savant credits Dodger Stadium with the most HRs since 2024.
- Plus, Dodger Stadium has the highest home run factor (+9%) for Thursday night, per Ballpark Pal.
- Olson’s 13 long balls are the third-most in the majors, supported by his 50.5% flyball rate and 23.6% HR/FB.
- Additionally, the Braves first baseman touts a .632 xSLG (98th percentile), a 20.2% barrel rate (97th percentile), and a 52.3% hard-hit rate (93rd percentile).
- Dodgers SP Emmet Sheehan has yielded a concerning 1.74 HR/9, giving up 6 home runs over six starts.
Add Matt Olson to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Make MLB Home Run Picks on PrizePicks
Will Yordan Alvarez and Matt Olson take advantage of hitter-friendly ballparks on Friday night? Who else could go yard on Friday night?
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