Top MLB Home Run Picks Today on PrizePicks – Friday, August 7

Friday’s MLB slate is chock-full of intriguing matchups, with 15 games spanning from evening until late into the night. While there are numerous star pitchers taking the mound, some hitters could be in good positions to find success with the long ball to usher in the weekend.

Here at PrizePicks, we have plenty of home run projections on the board to add to your MLB picks today. Many hitters have already been singled out by users as popular home run picks for the day’s action.

Let’s dive into some of the most-picked MLB home run projections for Friday, August 7, including what makes each player a potential target for home run predictions. 

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Top Home Run Picks Today – Friday, August 7

A quick look at the updated MLB home run leaderboard showcases just how big of a power surge there’s been coming out of the All-Star break and trade deadline. Seven players have already reached 30 jacks on the year, and just under 40 are at the 20-homer mark.

What goes into hitting a home run besides raw power, though? Things that are in a hitter’s control, such as swing speed, launch angle, and barrel quality must be considered, in addition to external factors like pitcher matchups, ballpark dimensions, and weather.

Factoring all of that in, which players could be in good positions to swat a homer on Friday? Daily home run projections are listed as Demons on PrizePicks, coming with higher payouts as a result. With that said, home runs can only be selected as “More” than 0.5. 

Let’s take a look at the most popular home run picks today on PrizePicks. Picks are listed at the time of writing.

1. Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani
2. Braves 1B Matt Olson
3. Nationals SS CJ Abrams
4. White Sox SS Colson Montgomery
5. Reds IF Sal Stewart
6. Phillies 1B/RF Bryce Harper
7. Yankees 1B Ben Rice
8. Rays 3B Junior Caminero

Three home run picks stand out as potential targets today. Let’s dive into the list, including a weather report from RotoGrinders.

Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.

White Sox SS Colson Montgomery

Guardians vs. White Sox – 7:40 p.m. ET

Guardians Starting Pitcher: Parker Messick

MLB Weather Report: 82 degrees, clear skies, 6 mph south-southwest wind

• Although Montgomery’s barrel and hard-hit rates are down year-over-year, he’s upped his average launch angle by 5.2 degrees in year No. 2, resulting in a 4.3% jump in fly ball share.
• The slugging shortstop swings a quick bat, ranking in the 94th percentile with a 76.5 mph average bat speed.
• Montgomery fares better against lefties than righties this year, owning a .532 SLG and .884 OPS when facing southpaws compared to respective .406 and .679 marks when seeing right-handers.
• Compounding that lefty-lefty success is the fact that Messick’s wOBA allowed to left-handed hitters (.303) is significantly higher than his mark against righties (.256). 
• Messick’s sinker is worse than meets the eye, as evidenced by his .462 xSLG on the offering. Montgomery owns an impressive .528 SLG when thrown that pitch. 

Add Colson Montgomery to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Reds IF Sal Stewart

Reds vs. Nationals – 6:45 p.m. ET

Nationals Starting Pitcher: Cade Cavalli

MLB Weather Report: 86 degrees, 45% chance of rain, 6 mph southwest wind

• Stewart has followed up an impressive cup of coffee as a rookie to improve his bat speed and fast-swing rate by 0.3 mph and 1.7%, respectively.
• The 22-year-old infielder is a proven heavy hitter, backed up by a 14.4% barrel rate (91st percentile) and a .477 xSLG (85th percentile).
• Nineteen games into the second half of his season, Stewart has achieved a .275 ISO and .536 SLG despite his BABIP dipping from .284 to .273. 
• Cavalli is nothing to write home about when it comes to limiting solid contact, ranking in the 32nd percentile in hard-hit split (41.0%) and the 39th percentile in average exit velocity (89.3 mph).
• The right-hander’s four-seam fastball is middling, yielding a .294 BA and a .458 SLG. Stewart absolutely crushes the offering to the tune of a .315 BA and .667 SLG. 

Add Sal Stewart to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Phillies 1B/RF Bryce Harper

Blue Jays vs. Phillies – 6:40 p.m. ET

Blue Jays Starting Pitcher: Jose Soriano

MLB Weather Report: 87 degrees, 48% chance of rain, 6 mph southwest wind

• Tapping into pull-side power has helped Harper drive the ball in 2026. His 17.0% pull air percentage is tied with 2023 as his best since 2018. 
• Harper pairs elite plate discipline (96th percentile walk rate) with a hard-hit clip (44.9%), launch angle sweet-spot percentage (37.5%), bat speed (74.4 mph), and more that all slot into the 70th percentile or better. 
• The former MVP’s expected stats (.389 xwOBA, .511 xSLG) are even better than his elite actual numbers (.370 wOBA, .500 SLG).
• Soriano sits in the 57th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed (37.5%) and the 42nd in barrel rate against (8.1%). 
• Like Stewart, Harper is otherworldly against the four-seam fastball, boasting a .716 SLG and +17 run value. Soriano throws it on 23.7% of his pitches, ceding a .505 SLG.

Add Bryce Harper to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Make MLB Home Run Picks on PrizePicks

There are undoubtedly some tough circumstances awaiting plenty of baseball’s top hitters on Friday night. With that said, the trio of Montgomery, Stewart, and Harper might just be in a solid spot to add to some already impressive home run totals as the weekend arrives. 

Don’t wait until first pitch — make your MLB home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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