The crowd at Flagler Credit Union Stadium is in for a treat on Tuesday, as the Bush’s Boca Raton Bowl between Toledo and Louisville finally arrives.
The afternoon matchup (2:00 p.m. ET on ESPN) sees the Rockets and Cardinals go head-to-head. With both programs coming off eight-win regular seasons, this MAC vs. ACC clash could bring the heat.
Here, we’ll break down a Toledo vs. Louisville prediction and pick for the Boca Raton Bowl on Tuesday. Use PrizePicks’ CFB game for player projections on QB Miller Moss and others.
Toledo vs. Louisville Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Tuesday marks just the ninth time that Toledo and Louisville will meet on the gridiron in their history, and the first time since 1981. With the Cardinals owning a 5-3 advantage, the Rockets have a chance to close the gap a bit.
Injuries and opt-outs could play a significant role in this outing. For Toledo, QB Tucker Gleason will work from the sideline due to an ailment suffered in the final regular-season game. On Louisville’s side, star WR Chris Bell is out due to injury and DL Rene Konga and Wesley Bailey are opt-outs.
Toledo vs. Louisville Over/Under, Spread
The Rockets enter Tuesday’s game as 9.5-point underdogs, returning a 3.44x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Cardinals are favorites with a 1.26x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Louisville Cardinals -9.5
- Over/Under: 43.5
- Game Winner Payout: Rockets 3.44x | Cardinals 1.26x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Toledo vs. Louisville Prediction on Spread
Here are some stats to know to get you prepared for Toledo vs. Louisville in the Boca Raton Bowl.
- Toledo posted an 8-4 record against the spread this year, one of the better marks in the nation. Louisville experienced the inverse at 4-8.
- The Rockets’ offense, while unspectacular on later downs, can move the ball. It’s 42nd in scoring at 29.0 points per game and 31st in yardage at 410.2 per outing.
- It’s Toledo’s defense that absolutely stands out, ranking in the top five in per-game scoring (13.3 PPG), yards (267.3), and red zone efficiency (68%).
- Louisville’s offense struggled during the regular season but ran with effectiveness, posting 4.9 yards per rush (30th nationwide).
- Defensively, the Cardinals sat 33rd in scoring (21.5 PPG) but were 62nd in the red zone (83.33%) and 123rd in pass frequency faced (52.91%).
Toledo vs. Louisville Boca Raton Bowl Picks for PrizePicks
Below are prime Toledo vs. Louisville picks to consider for the Boca Raton Bowl. PrizePicks player projections include QBs Miller Moss and Kalieb Osborne and RB DeaMonte Trayanum.
Toledo Rockets QB Kalieb Osborne vs. Louisville Projection: 166.5 Pass Yards
- Osborne attempted just 24 passes this year, going 15-for-24 with 260 yards and 2 TDs.
- The true freshman posted an eye-popping 0.41 EPA per dropback and 56% success rate, although it’s hard to take too much away given the small sample size.
- In a somewhat limited pass volume, the Louisville defense yielded just 6.0 yards per play, good for 10th in the country.
- The Cardinals ranked in the 93rd and 92nd percentiles in yards per dropback and pass explosiveness on defense, per Game on Paper.
Toledo Rockets RB DeaMonte Trayanum vs. Louisville Projection: 71.5 Rush Yards
- “Chip” Trayanum posted career-highs in rush attempts (166), yards (950), and TDs (11) this season.
- The sixth-year man, now on his fourth team, ranked 48th among 259 ball carriers in yards per rush (via Game on Paper).
- According to Pro Football Focus, out of all FBS RBs with 100+ attempts, Trayanum ranked 12th with 33 runs of 10 or more yards.
- Louisville’s defense ranks 58th in EPA per rush and is in the 48th percentile in explosive rushes allowed.
Louisville Cardinals QB Miller Moss vs. Toledo Projection: 224.5 Pass Yards
- Across 11 games this season, Moss averaged 229.6 passing yards. In his last five outings, however, that number fell to 184.0.
- Moss’ EPA per dropback (0.13) and success rate (42.9%) ranked 98th and 86th out of 132 qualified QBs.
- Toledo’s defense sits in the top 10 in forcing INTs (4.17%) and getting sacks (9.30%).
- Per Game on Paper, the Rockets’ pass defense is the best in the country.
Make Toledo vs. Louisville Boca Raton Bowl Picks on PrizePicks
Bowl season is in full swing, and Toledo vs. Louisville in the Boca Raton Bowl is just one of many exciting matchups to follow in December. With PrizePicks’ real-money CFB game, you can cash in on all the action.
Doing so is simple. Just pick your players, predict More or Less for their projected stats, and earn rewards if you’re right.
Keep it here with the Playbook for continued college football predictions, picks, and news.
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