The Detroit Tigers (12-10) and Boston Red Sox (8-13) will meet in the finale of their series on Monday, April 20, with a very early start of 11:10 a.m. ET. The Red Sox return a 1.69x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they secure a victory.
Boston needs a win to split the four-game set and could benefit from starting to stack wins in general.
Below, we'll break down our Tigers vs. Red Sox prediction and picks for Monday’s MLB matchup, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
Make your picks for Tigers vs. Red Sox on PrizePicks now.
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Tigers vs. Red Sox Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Monday, April 20
For the last game of the series, Tigers SP Jack Flaherty (5.15 xFIP across 4 starts and 20 IP in 2026) and Red Sox SP Sonny Gray (4.20 xFIP in 4 starts and 20.1 IP) will square off on the mound.
Since Flaherty’s return to the Tigers in 2025, he's struggled to find the magic he had in his first stint with Detroit. Control is his biggest dilemma, as his 15.9% walk rate ranks in the 11th percentile, according to Baseball Savant.
The Tigers’ lineup is thankfully bringing the power, ranking fourth with a .438 xSLG.
Boston brought in Gray to bolster this rotation, but he has yet to deliver. He came into the 2026 season posting a sub-4.00 xERA in seven straight years, but that streak could end due to his current 5.32 xERA.
The Red Sox lineup isn’t helping either, ranking only 19th in WAR (2.1) and 25th in wRC+ (85).
Tigers vs. Red Sox Winner Payout, Over/Under – Monday, April 20
The Red Sox enter Monday’s game as home favorites, returning a 1.69x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Tigers vs. Red Sox game on PrizePicks.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox -1.5 (2.43x payout)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (1.96x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Tigers 2.08x | Red Sox 1.69x
Play the Tigers vs. Red Sox spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Tigers vs. Red Sox Prediction on Over/Under – 4/20/26
Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Tigers vs. Red Sox prediction on the over/under for Monday, April 20.
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- There have been fewer than 8 runs scored in three of Flaherty’s four starts this season.
- The Red Sox’s game totals have also gone under 8 runs in three of the four outings in which Gray has started.
- Boston's offense is struggling thus far in the young season, ranking 24th with 3.8 runs per game.
- The Tigers’ offense regresses on the road. Their 3.5 runs per game sits 24th, compared to a 5.3 mark at home that's fourth.
- Detroit’s 55.0% under rate is the fifth-highest in the league entering Monday's play.
Tigers vs. Red Sox Player Picks, Stats for PrizePicks – 4/20/26
Here are the top Tigers vs. Red Sox picks to target on PrizePicks for Monday, April 20. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include 1B Willson Contreras and 2B Gleyber Torres.
Red Sox 1B Willson Contreras vs. Tigers Projection: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
- According to Baseball Savant, Contreras has 25 at-bats against Flaherty (most on the Red Sox), albeit just to the tune of a .196 xBA.
- The former St. Louis Cardinal tends swing and miss, with his 38.8% whiff rate ranking in the third percentile. It’s even higher against Flaherty (43.9%).
- The 11-year veteran is slumping recently, owning only 3 hits in his last 15 at-bats.
- The slider is Flaherty’s most frequently thrown breaking pitch. Contreras swings at sliders 46.4% of the time when outside the strike zone in his career, per FanGraphs.
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Tigers 2B Gleyber Torres vs. Red Sox Projection: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
- Torres has had minimal success against Gray with just 1 hit in his last 8 at-bats, including 4 strikeouts.
- The veteran infielder has struggled in this series, having only 1 hit in 12 at-bats.
- According to Baseball Reference, the former New York Yankees standout doesn't have a good history at Fenway Park, holding a .662 OPS.
- Torres is noticeably worse on the road. He has a .297 wOBA away from home compared to a .330 mark at his own ballpark, according to FanGraphs.
Add Gleyber Torres to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Make Tigers vs. Red Sox Picks on PrizePicks
Patriots Day is the biggest celebration in Boston. It includes the Boston Marathon and the Red Sox playing in the morning, adding even more excitement to Monday's matchup.
Don’t wait until the first pitch happens — make your Tigers vs. Red Sox picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
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