On Friday night, the second spot in the American League Championship will be decided in an ALDS rubber match between Tigers vs. Mariners. It sets up an intense matchup, with aces on the mound for both teams — Seattle's George Kirby and Detroit's Tarik Skubal.
Below, we'll give you our Tigers vs. Mariners prediction and picks for Friday night, including same-game player picks for PrizePicks.
After opening the series with a win in Seattle, the Detroit Tigers stumbled with back-to-back losses, falling behind 2-1 in the ALDS. Facing elimination, they bounced back in Game 4, delivering a dominant 9-3 victory to even the series.
Now, the best-of-five comes down to one final showdown at T-Mobile Park. First pitch is set for 8:05 p.m. ET on FOX, with everything on the line as these two teams battle for a spot in the ALCS for the first time in over a decade.
Let's get into the Tigers vs. Mariners for this intense matchup on Friday night from Seattle.
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Tigers vs. Mariners Prediction, Preview for ALDS Game 5
Here's a look at how both teams are performing going into the Tigers vs. Mariners ALDS Game 5 tonight.
Tigers Preview vs. Mariners
After carrying the best record in the MLB into the All-Star break, the Detroit Tigers ended the regular season in one of the worst slumps in baseball, allowing the Cleveland Guardians to claw back and steal the division title.
Despite that collapse, Detroit bounced back and took the series against the Guardians before showing signs of fatigue early against the Seattle Mariners.
Riley Greene has been the key factor for Detroit’s offense. In their only wins against Seattle, he had two hits. In the Tigers’ two losses, he went hitless across seven at-bats.
Slugger Kerry Carpenter, who blasted 26 home runs during the regular season, has been ice-cold in the postseason, managing just 1 hit in 17 at-bats in the ALDS. If Detroit is going to advance, they’ll need Carpenter to come alive and provide the run support he did all season long.
On the mound, Tarik Skubal has done his part. Through 14.2 postseason innings, the young lefty has allowed just three earned runs while striking out 23. Skubal will get the ball in Game 5 and look to close out the series on the road in Seattle to punch Detroit’s ticket to the ALCS.
Mariners Preview vs. Tigers
Cal Raleigh is nicknamed “The Big Dumper” for good reason, and proving it in the playoffs. In the ALDS, Raleigh is batting over .400 with 7 hits in 16 at-bats, including a late-game RBI in Game 3. His bat has been the engine of Seattle’s offense in this series.
However, Seattle's midseason acquisitions have yet to deliver.
Josh Naylor, who hit over .290 with 20 home runs during the regular season, has slumped to a .176 average in 17 at-bats this series. Eugenio Suárez, also picked up at the deadline, has struggled even more — managing just 2 hits in 15 at-bats for a .133 average.
Despite the inconsistency in their lineup, the Mariners find themselves in a winner-take-all Game 5 at home tonight, where they'll pitch George Kirby.
Tigers vs. Mariners Picks for ALDS Game 5
Here are the top Tigers vs. Mariners picks and predictions for PrizePicks MLB today. Use this analysis to build your Lineups on PrizePicks MLB on Friday, October 10.
Tigers P Tarik Skubal: 45.5 Pitcher Fantasy Score
- In his last 121 batters faced, Skubal has limited opponents to a 7.2% barrel rate, 40.6% hard-hit rate, and just a 17.4% fly ball rate.
- Over his last 28 innings pitched, he’s allowed only 5 earned runs, maintaining excellent run prevention.
- Skubal has totaled 40 strikeouts over his last 20 innings pitched, owning elite strikeout form.
- Despite his recent dominance, he hasn’t surpassed 9 strikeouts in any of his last 5 starts vs. the Mariners since 2024 topping out at exactly 9 Ks once and falling short in the other four.
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Mariners P George Kirby: 28.5 Pitcher Fantasy Score
- Over his last 86 batters faced, George Kirby has allowed:
- 11.4% barrel rate,
- 52.3% hard-hit rate
- 34% fly ball rate
- He’s surrendered 2 or more earned runs in 6 of his last 7 starts, struggling with consistency.
- Despite that, Kirby has racked up 39 strikeouts across his last 22 innings pitched, maintaining strong swing-and-miss stuff.
- Kirby has struggled historically vs. Detroit: in 4 starts since 2024, he’s allowed 3 or more runs in every outing.
- Kirby just faced the Tigers in ALDS Game 1, with 5 IP, 6 hits, 3 ER, 1 BB, and 8 Ks.
Tigers OF Riley Greene: 4.5 Hitter Fantasy Score
- Greene has been crushing right-handed pitching lately. Over his last 64 plate appearances vs. righties, he owns:
- 41.5% fly ball rate
- 75.6% hard-hit rate
- 14.6% barrel rate
- Against George Kirby specifically, Greene is 4-for-12 (.333) with a home run in their career matchups.
- In the current postseason, Greene is batting .259 (7-for-27) with a home run, remaining a key part of Detroit’s offense.
Make Tigers vs. Mariners Picks on PrizePicks
It all comes down to Game 5 in Seattle tonight, as the Tigers vs. Mariners will decide who takes the second spot in the ALCS. With both teams' aces on the mound, this has the makings of a low-scoring battle to decide who's moving on.
Today's Tigers vs. Mariners game gives us a massive matchup to make real-money predictions as the ALDS comes down to one final game.
Just make your MLB picks on PrizePicks with your favorite MLB players and win real money if your picks are correct. All you have to do is pick More or Less on at least two player projections — like hits+runs+RBIs or pitcher fantasy Score — to win.
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