Thunder vs. Mavericks Prediction, Spread, NBA Picks – Wednesday, October 28

Week 2 of the 2026-27 NBA season is fully underway, and ESPN presents a doubleheader of matchups for fans to enjoy. The nightcap features a Western Conference clash between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks, set to tip off at 9:30 p.m. ET.

With Oklahoma City battered and bruised but continuing to rack up wins and Dallas alternating losses and victories with young star F Cooper Flagg leading the way by churning out impressive stat lines.

Below, we’ll break down our Thunder vs. Mavericks prediction and picks for Wednesday’s NBA game, including the winner, spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Thunder vs. Mavericks prediction on PrizePicks now.

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Thunder vs. Mavericks Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Wednesday, October 28

The Thunder enter Wednesday’s game as 5.5-point road favorites against the Mavericks, returning a 1.42x payout on PrizePicks with a victory.

Here are the full payouts for Thunder vs. Mavericks on PrizePicks.

Make your Thunder vs. Mavericks pick against the spread or on the over/under on PrizePicks.

Payouts show potential returns on correct Team Picks predictions. A 2x payout returns $200 on a $100 entry. Lower multipliers reflect outcomes users are picking as more likely. Payouts are live as of writing and subject to change.

Fresh off another trip to the Western Conference Finals, the Thunder got to work this offseason by unloading franchise staples like SG Lu Dort and ushering in a bit of a youth and flexibility movement. Unfortunately, back-to-back MVP PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is already back to carrying the workload due to two top teammates going down.

G Cason Wallace and F Jalen Williams are expected to miss most or all of the season after sustaining early-season injuries. Wallace has a shoulder ailment, whereas Williams suffered an ugly-looking ankle dislocation and fracture on a fall.

Despite that, Oklahoma City has persevered en route to a perfect 4-0 start. Head coach Mark Daigneault’s crew owns basketball’s third-ranked net rating at +10.6, fueled by the third-most-suffocating defensive in the league (101.7 rating).

On the other side of the court, the Mavericks took a massive step back in their first full season without PG Luka Doncic. The lone bright spot in a 26-56 effort was the development of then-rookie F Cooper Flagg, the top pick in the 2025 NBA Draft.

Flagg paced Dallas’ offense minus PG Kyrie Irving all year long, finishing with per-game averages of 21.0 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 4.5 assists. The Duke product has leveled up his play this year and is joined by Irving, although the Mavs enter Wednesday’s game at an even 2-2.

First-time NBA HC Dusty May earned a big-time triumph on Monday against the Miami Heat on the road, with Flagg’s 29 points helping fuel the clutch win.

These two West squads faced off three times during the 2025-26 regular season, with Oklahoma City winning all three times (twice on the road) but Dallas covering as underdogs of 9 points on October 27 and 16.5 points on March 1.

On the injury front, the Thunder will be without SG Alex Caruso (ankle), C-PF Chet Holmgren (knee), and the aforementioned duo of Williams and Wallace. G Ajay Mitchell, who’s nursing an ankle sprain, is questionable.

For the Mavericks, big man Santi Aldama (knee) is doubtful. Irving is questionable due to injury management; the duo of SFs Caleb Martin (thumb) and Nadji Marshall (illness) is questionable.

Thunder vs. Mavericks Prediction on Spread – 10/28/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Thunder vs. Mavericks pick against the spread for Wednesday, October 28’s NBA game.

• Oklahoma City was a respectable 21-20 as a road favorite a year ago and is off to a 1-0 start in this campaign.
• Dallas’ main offensive strength, efficiency inside the arc, is a calling card of the OKC defense. The Mavs rank third with a 2-point shooting clip of 60.6; the Thunder cede just a 47.9% mark that’s the lowest in the Association.
• Furthermore, Oklahoma City’s own interior scoring could reign supreme. The Thunder produce 50.5 paint PPG, good for 12th leaguewide. The Mavs surrender 55.5 such PPG, a bottom-four threshold through four outings.
• The rebounding edge goes squarely to the Thunder, evidenced by them sitting 13th and 11th, respectively, in offensive and defensive rebound percentage allowed. The Mavericks’ ranks are 20th and 19th. 
• According to databallr, the Thunder’s net rating created from the possession battle (turnovers, rebounding/second chances) is fifth at +4.8. The Mavericks’ -8.4 figure is 29th out of 30 teams.
• OKC’s defense is more disciplined when it comes to fouls, sending the opposition to the free throw line at a 24.7% split (fifth). Dallas, on the other hand, is several spots behind at a still-solid 25.3% share (10th).

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Thunder vs. Mavericks Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 10/28/26

Here are the top Thunder vs. Mavericks picks to target on Wednesday, October 28. Today’s top NBA picks for PrizePicks include PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and F Cooper Flagg.

Thunder PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Mavericks: 31.5 Points

• After posting a muted box score last Thursday, Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 30.0 PPG on 54.5% shooting in his last two games.
• The superstar guard is coming off a year in which he shot a career-best 75.4% at the rim and 58.6% from 10-16 feet. 
• According to Stat Line Shift, SGA’s produced 10.2 more points per 100 possessions and experienced a 5.4% jump in usage rate without Williams in the last three years. Somehow, that’s come with a 5.2% bump in true shooting percentage.
• Gilgeous-Alexander’s 35.0 shot attempts per 100 and his 36.4% on-ball rate slot into the respective 97th and 85th percentiles. 

Add Shai Gilgeous-Alexander + Thunder to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Mavericks F Cooper Flagg vs. Thunder: 37.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts

• The reigning Rookie of the Year came back from a one-game absence (shoulder) to put up 45 combined points, rebounds, and assists against the Heat. 
• In addition to taking 1.2 more 3-pointers each night, Flagg’s early-season sample sees him canning 6.2% of his tries than as a first-year player (35.7% compared to 29.5).  
• Flagg ranked third among all rookie forwards in average rebound chances per game in 2025-26 with 10.0, per NBA Advanced Stats.
• Via NBA RAPM, Flagg is producing 24.3 assist points per 100 and 2.9 potential assists per minute on the ball. That’s come with a 3.7% decrease in his bad pass rate.

Add Cooper Flagg + Mavericks to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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As Oklahoma City battles a slew of injuries and attempts to maintain status as an elite Western Conference club, Dallas is setting out to prove it’s in store for an improved season. In addition to SGA vs. Flagg, there are multiple other intriguing games within the game on Wednesday.

Don’t wait until tip-off today — make your Thunder vs. Mavericks picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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