The Big 12 race is underway with a huge game in the desert on Friday night between the TCU Horned Frogs and Arizona State Sun Devils. The game kicks off at 9:00 p.m., and will be aired on FOX.
The Horned Frogs are playing their first conference game following a 3-0 start. As for ASU, they edged Baylor on a near-walk-off field goal, delivering a last-gasp 27-24 win for its first league victory last week.
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TCU vs. Arizona State Prediction, Preview for Week 5
TCU Horned Frogs
- All three of TCU’s wins have come by double-digits, capped off by last week's 35-24 triumph over rival SMU.
- QB Josh Hoover has increased his passing yardage output each week. In Week 4, Hoover lit up the Mustangs for 379 yards and 5 TDs, marking his third game of multiple TD passes.
- TCU posted a solid 6-3 record in Big 12 play last season, including a trio of road victories.
Arizona State Sun Devils
- The Sun Devils were tripped up in Week 2 at Mississippi State, but have won their last two games.
- ASU joined the Big 12 in 2024 and won the conference championship in their inaugural season. Now they look to build on last week’s dramatic win over Baylor.
- The team has eclipsed the 200-yard rushing mark twice this season, while also posting 179 yards on the ground against Baylor.
TCU vs. Arizona State Picks & CFB DFS
Arizona State QB Sam Leavitt vs. TCU Projection: 212.5 Passing Yards
- Leavitt threw for 221 yards in last Saturday’s win over Baylor, including a 61-yard connection with WR Derek Eusebio.
- His yards per attempt (YPA) dropped to 6.0 this season, after averaging 8.0 in 2024.
- ASU ranks 87th in the country in EPA per pass at -0.01, but the Sun Devils face a TCU defense ranked 113th in that category.
- The Sun Devils have fallen from 18th in 2024 to 56th in adjusted EPA per play since last season.
- After shutting down UNC in the season opener, TCU has allowed at least 276 passing yards in each of the last two games.
TCU RB Jeremy Payne vs. Arizona State Projection: 43.5 Rushing Yards
- Payne is looking to emerge as the top option in TCU’s backfield after rushing for 239 yards as a freshman.
- Through three games this season, he has posted 110 rushing yards and is coming off his best performance, a 53-yard effort in the win over SMU.
- He’ll face an ASU run defense that ranks 117th nationally in EPA per rush (0.11). The Sun Devils have faced two top-10 teams in that metric — Mississippi State (seventh) and Texas State (ninth). TCU ranks 61st.
- Payne’s rushing success rate is a meager 23%, the lowest among TCU running backs.
TCU WR Eric McAllister vs. Arizona State Projection: 72.5 Receiving Yards
- We haven’t seen a McAllister wreak this much havoc since Home Alone — the senior torched SMU for 254 receiving yards and 3 TDs last Saturday.
- He hauled in fourth-quarter TDs of 70 and 44 yards against the Mustangs after totaling just 66 receiving yards over the first two weeks.
- TCU’s passing game has been sharp, ranking 17th nationally in EPA per pass (0.35). They’ll be tested by an ASU pass defense that ranks 39th in the same category.
- McAllister has been held to 57 or fewer receiving yards in eight of his last 14 games.
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The Horned Frogs look to make a huge statement on the road and knock off the defending Pac-12 champion Sun Devils in Tempe on Friday.
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