Spurs vs. Thunder Prediction on Spread for Game 5 – 5/26/26

Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals between the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder tips off at 8:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, May 26, televised by NBC and Peacock. After holding the underdog role in the last two games, the Thunder are favored by 4.5 points on the spread tonight, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Following the Spurs’ 122-115 Game 1 win in double overtime, Oklahoma City answered with back-to-back wins by an average margin of +12.0 points per game. Down 2-1, San Antonio dominated Game 4 with a 103-82 win to cap its two-game home stand.

With the Western Conference Finals tied at 2-2, we'll break down our Spurs vs. Thunder prediction on the spread for Game 5 on PrizePicks.

Make your Spurs vs. Thunder prediction on PrizePicks for Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals.

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Spurs vs. Thunder Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Game 5 – Tuesday, May 26

The Spurs opened Game 3 with a 15-0 lead, but the Thunder quickly carved into the challenge, trailing 31-26 at the end of the first quarter. OKC then answered with a 32-20 run in the second quarter and ultimately won the game by 15 points.

San Antonio roared out of the gate once again with a 23-8 opening to the first quarter in Game 4. The Spurs learned their lesson, leading most of the second half by at least 20 points. Following San Antonio’s 103-82 win, we have a tied series at 2-2.

After Oklahoma City shot 48.0% from the field and 40.5% on 3-pointers in Games 2 and 3, the Spurs held the Thunder to only 33.0% shooting and 18.2% from 3-point land in Game 4. In Game 1, San Antonio won the paint points battle 52-38; it repeated that success with a 50-36 margin in Game 4.

According to the NBA injury report, the Spurs are expected to feature a healthy roster tonight. Meanwhile, Thunder G Ajay Mitchell (calf) is out, while G Jalen Williams (hamstring) is questionable. 

Before Game 4’s 82 points in the WCF, Oklahoma City’s previous low was 108 points in Game 1 of the semifinals vs. the Lakers. Two of the squad’s top four leading scorers in the playoffs, Williams (17.8 PPG) and Mitchell (15.1 PPG), could be absent tonight. Will the Thunder’s scoring struggles continue?

Spurs vs. Thunder Spread, Over/Under for Game 5 – Tuesday , May 26

The Thunder enter Game 5 as 4.5-point home favorites against the Spurs, returning a 1.51x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Spurs vs. Thunder game on PrizePicks.

• Spread: Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5 (1.85x payout)
• Over/Under: 218.5 (1.96x payout on Over)
• Game Winner Payout: Spurs 2.38x | Thunder 1.51x

Make your Spurs vs. Thunder prediction on the spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Timeline

Here is the full Spurs vs. Thunder timeline, including the playoff series game-by-game and recent matchup history.

All-Time: Spurs, 127-107

Regular Season: Spurs, 4-1

Series: Tied, 2-2

Spurs vs. Thunder Western Conference Finals Timeline, Schedule

• Game 1: Spurs 122, Thunder 115
• Game 2: Thunder 122, Spurs 113
• Game 3: Thunder 123, Spurs 108
• Game 4: Spurs 103, Thunder 82
• Game 5: Tuesday, May 26, 8:30 p.m. ET in Oklahoma City
• Game 6: Thursday, May 28, 8:30 p.m. ET in San Antonio
• Game 7 if necessary

Spurs vs. Thunder Prediction on Spread for Game 5 – 5/26/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Spurs vs. Thunder prediction on the spread on Tuesday, May 26.

Lock in your Spurs vs. Thunder prediction on PrizePicks before Game 5 tips off.

• Through four games of the WCF, the Spurs have posted 47.0 paint points per game, compared to the Thunder’s 39.5. 
• According to NBA.com, San Antonio has allowed only 41.9 points in the paint per game in the playoffs (third-fewest), while opponents have logged 43.3 against OKC (seventh-fewest).
• After limiting the Thunder to 6-of-33 shooting on triples (18.2%) in Game 4, the Spurs’ elite perimeter defense could continue, as they’ve held opponents to only 32.8% on treys in the postseason (third-lowest).
• In the regular season, San Antonio gave up a 34.9% 3-point percentage (fourth-lowest).
• If the Spurs continue to frustrate OKC from deep, the defense may dominate with C Victor Wembanyama locking down the paint with his elite 97.4 defensive rating in the playoffs.
• Since PG De’Aaron Fox returned from injury in Game 3, San Antonio has posted 13.5 turnovers per game compared to 21.0 per contest in the first two matchups.
• Furthermore, the Spurs just forced 17 turnovers in Game 4, which was the Thunder’s highest mark of the WCF.
• San Antonio is 5-3-1 against the spread (ATS) in head-to-head matchups, including a 3-2 ATS record in Oklahoma City this season.
• In the Thunder’s first game without Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell in the lineup, they lost by 21 points while recording only 82 points. That’s bad news against the Spurs’ defense that boasts a 103.6 rating in the postseason (second-best).

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Make Spurs vs. Thunder Game 5 Picks on PrizePicks

If Williams joins Mitchell as an inactive tonight, will the Spurs take advantage and grab a 3-2 series lead in the WCF? San Antonio comes off its best defensive performance of the series, backed by a strong presence on the 3-point line.

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