The United States Men’s National Team (USMNT) will play on home soil at the 2026 World Cup, but they’ll be challenged by Turkiye, Paraguay, and Australia in Group D. As one of the co-host nations, the US is favored to win Group D, though this has the makings of a wide-open group.
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To set the stage for the World Cup group stage, we’ll break down all four teams in our Group D predictions for the 2026 World Cup and highlight which teams have the best shot to win the group and advance.
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2026 World Cup Group D Teams & Favorites to Win
Here are the teams in Group D at the 2026 World Cup, along with the payouts for each team to win and qualify from the group into the knockout stage.
The top two teams from every group and the top eight third-place teams across all groups will advance in the World Cup knockout stage.
Below, payouts indicate real-money earnings if a prediction is correct on PrizePicks; for example, a 2x on a $100 entry would pay out $200 on PrizePicks Team Picks.
The lower the payout multiplier, the higher the chance of the outcome occurring, according to user picks.
2026 World Cup Group D Winner Payouts, Favorites
Here are the payouts for each team to win Group D, per PrizePicks Team Picks. The USA is the slight favorite to win the group, while there isn’t a major gap between Turkiye, Paraguay, and Australia behind them.
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USA: Yes 2.43x | No 1.51x
Turkiye: Yes 2.7x | No 1.42x
Paraguay: Yes 4.76x | No 1.14x
Australia: Yes 7.69x | No 1.06x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
2026 World Cup Group D to Qualify Payouts
Here are the payouts for each team to advance to the knockout stage in Group D. The USA and Turkiye are the expected qualifiers, but Paraguay and Australia also have paths to advance.
USA: Yes 1.13x | No 4.76x
Turkiye: Yes 1.23x | No 3.57x
Paraguay: Yes 1.47x | No 2.38x
Australia: Yes 1.92x | No 1.75x
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2026 World Cup Group D Winner Prediction
Turkiye to Win Group D: Yes 2.7x | No 1.42x
Turkiye to Win 2026 World Cup: Yes 33.33x
There’s no shortage of talent on Turkiye’s World Cup squad, with MF Arda Guler, MF Hakan Calhanoglu, MF Kenan Yildiz, and F Baris Alper Yilmaz leading the charge. However, Calhanoglu and Yildiz missed the end of their domestic seasons in Serie A due to injury, so it remains to be seen how fit they are entering the tournament.
Manager Vincenzo Montella helped lead Turkiye to a 4-1-1 record in World Cup qualifying, earning wins over Romania and Kosovo while drawing with Spain in November to earn a spot in this year’s competition.
This is the first time Turkiye qualified for the World Cup since 2002, and they placed third in that appearance. The unpredictability of this group may favor Turkiye outpacing the United States.
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USA – World Cup Group D Prediction, Preview
To Win Group D: Yes 2.43x | No 1.51x
To Qualify for Knockout Stage: Yes 1.13x | No 4.76x
Vibes aren’t very high for the United States in front of their home fans following lopsided losses to Belgium and Portugal in international friendlies in March. Moreover, there are reports that manager Mauricio Pochettino could be eyeing the AC Milan job, which adds a distraction ahead of group play.
Captain F Christian Pulisic isn’t in the best of form heading into the World Cup, having not scored a goal for his domestic club (ironically, AC Milan) since December. However, he did find the back of the net against Senegal in the team’s recent international friendly.
Although the USA could fall short of expectations as a co-host nation, they can hang their hat on advancing to the knockout stage in each of their last three World Cups. With the top two squads and the top eight third-place teams advancing, the United States could be poised to advance and face early elimination in the knockout stage
While the US defeated Senegal in their recent exhibition match, all eyes will be on how they perform when the stakes heighten.
Paraguay – World Cup Group D Prediction, Preview
To Win Group D: Yes 4.76x | No 1.14x
To Qualify for Knockout Stage: Yes 1.47x | No 2.38x
Paraguay narrowly qualified for the 2026 World Cup by placing sixth in the CONMEBOL standings. The top six teams earned a spot in the World Cup, with Paraguay earning a 7-7-4 record during qualification.
New manager Gustavo Alfaro led Paraguay to unlikely wins over Brazil and Argentina in qualifying, and Paraguay advanced to the quarterfinals in their last World Cup appearance in 2010.
A trio of MF Miguel Almiron, MF Diego Gomez, and MF Julio Enciso could be enough for Paraguay to make the United States miss a spot in the knockout stage.
Australia – World Cup Group D Prediction, Preview
To Win Group D: Yes 7.69x | No 1.06x
To Qualify for Knockout Stage: Yes 1.92x | No 1.75x
Of the teams in Group D, Australia seems the most unlikely to advance beyond the group stage. You can never say never at the World Cup, but the Aussies are considered the clear dark horses of the group for a reason.
On a positive note, the Socceroos performed well in the AFC qualification process, earning an 11-4-1 record. At the same time, they’ll face a much different level of competition at the World Cup.
Qualifying for five consecutive World Cups is no easy feat, either, though they’ve been eliminated in the group stage in three of their last four appearances. So, despite the expectations of Australia being at the bottom of Group D, you can’t completely rule them out from advancing.
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Plenty of questions will be ahead if the United States is unable to qualify for the knockout stage as a co-host nation at the 2026 World Cup. Will Turkiye, Paraguay, or Australia make life difficult for the red, white, and blue?
You can make your World Cup Group D and 2026 World Cup picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money on World Cup games. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats like shots or goals, and cash in if you’re correct.
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Stick around with the Playbook for continued World Cup predictions, picks, and analysis through the end of the tournament.
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