The 2026-27 NBA season is officially underway with every team beginning its new campaign. The San Antonio Spurs will host the Houston Rockets on Friday, October 23, at 9:30 p.m. ET on Prime Video. According to PrizePicks, the Spurs are 5.5-point favorites for the spread tonight.
San Antonio didn’t start the season well, falling 116-104 to the Oklahoma City Thunder in Tuesday’s season opener. Meanwhile, Houston got off to a strong start in a 128-110 win over the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday.
Below, we'll break down the matchup for our Rockets vs. Spurs prediction, including the spread and player projections on PrizePicks.
Make your Rockets vs. Spurs picks on PrizePicks now!
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Rockets vs. Spurs Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Friday, October 23
The Spurs enter Friday’s matchup as 5.5-point home favorites, returning a 1.47x payout if they win outright.
Here are the full payouts for the Rockets vs. Spurs matchup. PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Make your Rockets vs. Spurs prediction on the spread on PrizePicks.
Stats used in this article are from Basketball Reference, NBA.com, or databallr unless stated otherwise.
The Spurs had a spectacular 2025-26 season, toppling the Thunder in the Western Conference Finals and reaching the NBA Finals for the first time since 2013-14. The San Antonio Spurs ultimately fell to the New York Knicks in five games.
To begin the 2026-27 season, the Thunder got some revenge against the Spurs with a dominant victory. Spurs C Victor Wembanyama scored 12 points but made only 1 of 13 shot attempts, including missing his first 12 shots.
The perimeter battle was the difference in Tuesday’s matchup, with the Spurs shooting 27.0% (10 of 37) on 3-pointers. G Stephon Castle was one of the few productive Spurs, as he scored 24 points on 9-of-21 shooting, including making 5 of his 12 attempts (41.7%) from beyond the arc.
Entering the 2026-27 season, the Spurs return mostly the same team as last season. San Antonio signed F Tobias Harris to a two-year, $30.8 million deal this offseason.
At 34, Harris is still an extremely productive wing, averaging 13.3 PPG and 5.1 RPG with the Detroit Pistons last season. However, Harris is dealing with a calf injury and will miss Friday’s contest, and PG De'Aaron Fox is questionable with a wrist injury, per the NBA injury report.
Meanwhile, the Rockets made the NBA playoffs last season but were eliminated by the Los Angeles Lakers in six games. It marked the second consecutive season in which Houston bowed out in the opening round of the postseason.
The Rockets outlasted the Mavericks with an electric offense to open 2026-27, shooting 53.4% from the field. F Kevin Durant and F Jabari Smith Jr. both scored 30 points to lead Houston, while C Alperen Sengun added 23 points and 10 rebounds.
Houston got PG Fred VanVleet back to start the 2026-27 season after missing last season with a torn ACL. C Steven Adams also missed the second half of the 2025-26 season after undergoing season-ending ankle surgery in January.
The Rockets were without Adams in the season opener due to a calf injury, and he’s listed as questionable for Friday’s contest. G Reed Sheppard is also listed as questionable with a knee bruise.
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Rockets vs. Spurs Prediction on Over/Under – 10/23/26
Here are the key stats behind our Rockets vs. Spurs prediction on Friday, October 23, including a pick for the over/under on PrizePicks.
- The under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between the Rockets and Spurs, with two of the last three games going under.
- San Antonio registered the third-best defensive rating (111.6) in 2025-26, behind only the Thunder (107.7) and Pistons (110.2).
- The Spurs held opponents to 111.5 PPG last season (eighth) while allowing just 35.2% on 3-pointers (eighth).
- The Rockets also thrived defensively a season ago, allowing the fourth-fewest PPG (110.0) and a 113.4 defensive rating (sixth).
- One key to the Spurs’ defensive success was limiting opponents from getting out in transition in 2025-26. San Antonio conceded just 12.0 fast break PPG, which was tied for eighth in the NBA.
- The under cashed in 53.8% of the Spurs’ games last season, which was the eighth-best rate in the league. Meanwhile, the Rockets saw the under hit in 52.9% of their games (11th) a season ago.
Lock in your Rockets vs. Spurs prediction on PrizePicks before tip-off.
Rockets vs. Spurs Picks, Player Stats on PrizePicks – 10/23/26
Our top Rockets vs. Spurs player picks for Friday, October 23, on PrizePicks include Kevin Durant and Stephon Castle.
Rockets F Kevin Durant vs. Spurs: 23.5 Points
- Durant averaged 26.0 PPG in 2025-26 and attempted 27.4 true shot attempts per 100 possessions (92nd percentile).
- The 16-time All-Star shot 41.3% from deep in 2025-26, ranking in the 96th percentile. Durant made two of his four attempts from beyond the arc against the Mavericks in their season opener.
- Durant has scored at least 24 points in two of his last four games against the Spurs.
- The Rockets’ star spent 22.1% of his time on the ball last season, ranking in the 87th percentile.
Add Kevin Durant + Rockets to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.
Spurs G Stephon Castle vs. Rockets: 23 Pts + Asts
- Castle averaged 16.7 PPG and a career-high 7.4 APG in 68 games last season.
- The Spurs’ guard averaged 16.5 PPG and 8.0 APG in four contests against the Rockets in 2025-26.
- Sitting in the 91st percentile, Castle averaged 20.3 potential assists per 100 possessions last season.
- The former lottery pick averaged 2.6 potential assists per minute of on-ball time last season, sitting in the 88th percentile.
Add Stephon Castle + Spurs to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.
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Make Rockets vs. Spurs Picks on PrizePicks
The Spurs are slated to play their home opener on Friday, while the Rockets aim to carry momentum from Tuesday's win over the Mavericks. Despite both teams having plenty of offensive firepower, this could be a defensive battle between two of the Western Conference’s top teams.
Don't wait until tip-off — make your Rockets vs. Spurs picks on PrizePicks now!
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