Reds vs. Yankees Prediction, MLB Picks for Sunday, June 21

The Cincinnati Reds (36-39) vs. the New York Yankees (46-29) is set for 1:35 p.m. ET on Sunday, June 21, with the Yankees returning a 1.85x payout to win, via PrizePicks.

Cincinnati’s bats were shut down on Friday in a 5-0 loss to the Yankees. However, on Saturday, they had a coming-out party with 10 runs, highlighted by Reds 3B Sal Stewart and his career-high 6 RBIs. Nothing beats day baseball in the Bronx with the Yankees and Reds competing in a rubber match.

Below, we'll break down our Reds vs. Yankees prediction and picks for Sunday’s MLB matchup, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Reds vs. Yankees picks on PrizePicks for today's game!

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Reds vs. Yankees Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Sunday, June 21

The Yankees will start SP Elmer Rodriguez (6.94 xFIP in 13 IP, 3 starts). On Saturday, they announced recalling Rodriguez from Triple-A affiliate Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and will start him on Sunday, pushing Yankees SP Gerrit Cole’s start to Monday. Yankees manager Aaron Boone cited this as nothing more than giving his starters an extra day off, as they are in the middle of playing 16 consecutive games. 

Rodriguez’s four-seamer is the best pitch in his arsenal, reaching 99 mph and posting a 33.3% whiff rate. His slider might be his strongest breaking pitch, as he can generate a sweeping motion, and it has a 50% whiff rate. 

From May 8 to May 22, the Yankees went 4-10 and dropped from a 0.5-game cushion in first place in the American League East to 5.5 games behind first. However, even with their captain and reigning MVP OF Aaron Judge out with an injury, the Yankees have been on a great run, as their 16-6 record since May 23 is the best in baseball. 

The Reds will counter with SP Chase Burns (3.29 xFIP in 80.2 IP, 14 starts). We’re approaching one year since Burns made his MLB debut (June 24), and he’s already establishing himself as one of the best pitchers in the league. He is a guy who gives the Reds a chance to win each time he’s on the mound, allowing 2 or fewer earned runs in 13 of his 14 starts this season.

Cincinnati feels like a team on the cusp of becoming a contender but can never get over that hump. On April 30, it had a 20-11 record and were in first place in the National League Central. Since then, they are 15-27, the second-worst record in the league over that span, and are 9.5 games out of first place in the division.

Reds vs. Yankees Winner Payout, Over/Under – Sunday, June 21

The Yankees enter Sunday’s game as home favorites, returning a 1.81x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Reds vs. Yankees game on PrizePicks.

• Spread: Yankees -1.5 (2.63x payout)
• Over/Under: 8.5 (1.75x payout on Over)
• Game Winner Payout: Reds 1.88x | Yankees 1.85x

Make your Reds vs. Yankees prediction on the winner or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Reds vs. Yankees Prediction on Winner – 6/21/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Reds vs. Yankees prediction for the winner on Sunday, June 21.

Lock in your Reds vs. Yankees prediction on PrizePicks before the first pitch.

Data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.

• Burns’ MLB debut was against the Yankees. He pitched 5 innings and allowed 3 earned runs in a game the Yankees won 5-4.
• The Reds' second-year starter has weaknesses, and those are the Yankees' strongest assets. Burns is allowing a 38.1% hard-hit rate that puts him in the 59th percentile, and the Yankees are second in the league with a 42.2% hard-hit rate.
• The Yankees lead MLB with a 10.5% barrel rate, and Chase is ceding an 8.9% barrel rate that ranks him in the 34th percentile.
• New York has excelled against underperforming teams, with a 32-14 record against teams under .500, the best in MLB.
• The Yankees are 4-2 this season in rubber matches.

Reds vs. Yankees Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks – 6/21/26

Here are the top Reds vs. Yankees picks to target on PrizePicks for Sunday, June 21. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Ben Rice and Spencer Jones.

Yankees OF Spencer Jones vs. Reds: 3.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• Jones has been excellent since his second call-up to the Yankees on June 5, with a .437 wOBA and a 1.017 OPS.
• Burns struggles with allowing hard-hits could come into play, as the Yankee prospect’s 66.7% hard-hit rate is the third-best in MLB since June 5.
• Jones’ discipline at the plate gives him an incredible 15% walk rate, which would place him 11th in the league if he had enough qualifying at-bats.
• Burns struggles with control, as his 8.2% walk rate ranks only in the 56th percentile, and he has issued multiple free passes in 9 of 14 starts this season.
• Jones could be looking for Burns’ slider, which has his second-highest usage rate (37%). The Yankees right fielder demolishes that pitch, with an 83.3% hard-hit rate and a .464 wOBA.

Add Spencer Jones to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Yankees 1B Ben Rice vs. Reds: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI

• Rice has a small sample size against Burns but is 1-for-3 with a home run.
• The Yankees first baseman can crush a baseball, as his 48.1% hard hit rate is in the 85th percentile. That’s something Burns struggles with, allowing a 38.1% hard-hit rate that ranks in the 59th percentile.
• Left-handed hitters do better at sending the ball in the stands against Burns with a 14.9% home run-to-fly-ball ratio (HR/FB) compared to 5.3% against right-handed batters. The lefty Rice sits fourth in the league with a 28.4% HR/FB.
• Burns heavily relies on his fastball, throwing it on 57% of his pitches. Rice is one of the best fastball hitters, ranking second in the league with a 15.5 runs above average against fastballs.

Add Ben Rice to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Make Reds vs. Yankees Picks on PrizePicks

This series enters the Sunday matinee tied 1-1. The Reds have their best starter on the mound with Chase Burns getting the ball, but the Yankees have one of the best lineups in baseball, and they have won their last three series.

Don’t wait until the first pitch happens — make your Reds vs. Yankees picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.

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