Red Sox vs. Dodgers Prediction, MLB Picks for Saturday, August 1

The first pitch of the Boston Red Sox (58-51) vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers (69-41) is set for 9:10 p.m. ET on Saturday, August 1, with the Dodgers returning a 1.56x payout to win, via PrizePicks.

This series got off to a thrilling start. The Red Sox jumped to an early 3-0 lead, but the Dodgers would climb back and take a 4-3 lead, in part thanks to DH Shohei Ohtani’s 2-run home run.

It would be all Red Sox after that, as they would score the final 5 runs in the 9-4 win. The Red Sox will attempt to win the series in Los Angeles, leaning on their young phenom SP Payton Tolle. The Dodgers will start their top ace SP Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

Below, we'll break down our Red Sox vs. Dodgers prediction and picks for Saturday’s MLB matchup, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Red Sox vs. Dodgers picks on PrizePicks now!

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Red Sox vs. Dodgers Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Saturday, August 1

The Red Sox will hand the ball to SP Payton Tolle (3.81 xFIP in 95.0 IP, 17 starts) on Saturday. Tolle has become a fan favorite in Boston, not just for his incredible mustache but also since he’s been one of the team's most consistent starters throughout the season.

In his first 8 starts of the season, he allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in six. He’s got an electric fastball that can reach the upper 90s and induces a 35.1% chase rate, which ranks in the 90th percentile.

The great thing about baseball is that the narrative can shift quickly throughout a 162-game season. That’s the case with the Red Sox.

For most of the first half of the season, Boston’s outlook was bleak. It started early when Red Sox manager Joey Cora was fired after the team began 9-19. New manager Chad Tracy wasn’t doing much better early on, and on June 18, the Red Sox’s 29-43 record was the second-worst in the American League. Then everything changed.

Since June 19, the Red Sox have gone a league-best 27-8, including a 15-game winning streak that tied the 1946 team for the highest in franchise history.

This has propelled them back into contention, where they currently have the second Wild Card spot and are only 6.5 games out of first place in the AL East.

The Dodgers will counter on Saturday with SP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (3.35 xFIP in 125.2 IP, 19 starts) on the mound.

In a Dodgers rotation that is among the best in baseball, with a 3.37 ERA that ranks first in MLB, Yamamoto is their top starter, as he leads the L.A. starters with a 2.72 ERA and a 3.31 FIP. If Brewers SP Jacob Misiorowski weren't so dominant, Yamamoto could be a National League Cy Young contender. Since May 18, he ranks third in the NL with a 2.95 xERA and a 2.3 WAR.

With the MLB trade deadline just two days away, it will be interesting to see whether anyone makes a blockbuster deal. Despite the Dodgers being one of the best teams in the league, they could still try to improve. 

MLB insider Jeff Passan says the only way the Dodgers don’t get Skubal is if what the Tigers are asking for is “so high, that it’s offensive.”

Red Sox vs. Dodgers Winner Payout, Over/Under – Saturday, August 1

The Dodgers enter Saturday’s game as home favorites, returning a 1.56x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Red Sox vs. Dodgers game on PrizePicks.

Make your Red Sox vs. Dodgers prediction on the spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 36 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Red Sox vs. Dodgers Prediction on Spread – 8/1/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Red Sox vs. Dodgers prediction on the run line for Saturday, August 1.

Data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.

• Tolle isn’t great at inducing swings and misses, as his 26.6% whiff rate is only in the 60th percentile. The Dodgers rank seventh in the league with a 24.1% whiff rate.
• Tolle also allows a 7.1% barrel rate that ranks only in the 55th percentile. Los Angeles ranks fourth in baseball with a 9.3% barrel rate.
• The Dodgers hit well against left-handed pitchers, ranking seventh with a .322 wOBA. That could be a problem for the lefty Tolle.
• The Red Sox may have trouble getting free passes, as their 8.1% walk rate is sixth in MLB, while Yamamoto’s 5.8% walk rate is in the 88th percentile.
• The Dodgers’ 19-12 record against left-handed starters is the sixth-best in baseball.

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Red Sox vs. Dodgers Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks – 8/1/26

Here are the top Red Sox vs. Dodgers picks to target on PrizePicks for Saturday, August 1. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Shohei Ohtani and Willson Contreras.

Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani vs. Red Sox: 8.5 Fantasy Score

• Ohtani is one of the hottest hitters in baseball, with his .403 xBA since July 24 ranking third and his .464 wOBA sitting 16th.
• Tolle is allowing a 7.1% barrel rate, which ranks in the 55th percentile. That could be trouble against Ohtani, who has a 16.8% barrel rate (96th percentile).
• The left-handed-hitting Ohtani is just as effective against left-handed pitchers compared to righties. He has a .372 wOBA against southpaws and a .400 wOBA against right-handed hurlers.
• Further, Ohtani has a 22.0% HR/FB against southpaws compared to 20.6% against righties.
• Tolle is more susceptible to the long ball against left-handed hitters, with a 14.7% HR/FB compared to a 7.1% HR/FB against right-handed hitters.

Add Shohei Ohtani to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Red Sox 1B Willson Contreras vs. Dodgers: 5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• Contreras is on fire, with his .476 wOBA since July 17 ranking fifth in the league.
• If someone gets a walk against Yamamoto, it could be Contreras. He’s shown discipline at the plate with a 31.0% walk rate since July 24, which ranks second in MLB.
• Contreras has an incredible 14.6% barrel rate that is in the 92nd percentile, giving him a potential advantage over Yamamoto, who’s allowing a 6.3% barrel rate that ranks in the 71st percentile.
• Yamamoto throws the four-seamer and sinker on 21% of his pitches to right-handed hitters, the second-highest rate. Contreras is stellar against the sinker, posting a .549 wOBA and a 48.6% hard-hit rate. When facing the four-seamer, he sports a .409 wOBA and a 42.7% hard-hit rate.

Add Willson Contreras to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Make Red Sox vs. Dodgers Picks on PrizePicks

After the Dodgers lost the first game of the series, they will start Yoshinobu Yamamoto in an attempt to knot the series tonight. The Red Sox can secure a big series win in Los Angeles, with SP Payton Tolle getting the start on Saturday.

Don’t wait until the first pitch happens — make your Red Sox vs. Dodgers picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 36 states.

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